NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Get out and enjoy it...green grass from Tolland to Orh with tennis courts open for businesswith all due respect for people who enjoy warm weather I'm ready for cold and snow ...my fall allergies are still flaring up. .60-65 temperatures won't help my allergies. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The Euro at day 9-10 would have temps 70 or higher in the northeast with +12 850's. Hopefully that's wrong, but that's what it's showing See my post from yesterday in the Winter Banter #113 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The Euro at day 9-10 would have temps 70 or higher in the northeast with +12 850's. Hopefully that's wrong, but that's what it's showing It's a pretty astounding pattern for December with a Bermuda high flexing its muscles, keeping us warm and dry. It has zero chance of verifying. And even if it did, nothing wrong with warm temps. If it's not going to be snowing this time of year then it might as well be warm and pleasant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The 00z EPS mean is on board with a SE ridge days 9-10, but it's displaced further East than the OP putting us into a SW flow and potentially stormy pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 It's a pretty astounding pattern for December with a Bermuda high flexing its muscles, keeping us warm and dry. It has zero chance of verifying. And even if it did, nothing wrong with warm temps. If it's not going to be snowing this time of year then it might as well be warm and pleasant.Personally i couldn't agree more. When you work outside nothing is worse then wasted cold. The lack of snow sucks for my bottom line though. I refuse to throw in the towel later in the winter. I'm not taking the bait on that. In fact about a month ago I was even more bullish on December being super warm. As I mentioned 70s and a monthly departure of greater then +5. Now I'm more in the +2-+5 range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Personally i couldn't agree more. When you work outside nothing is worse then wasted cold. The lack of snow sucks for my bottom line though. I refuse to throw in the towel later in the winter. I'm not taking the bait on that. In fact about a month ago I was even more bullish on December being super warm. As I mentioned 70s and a monthly departure of greater then +5. Now I'm more in the +2-+5 range Agree. People need to relax. No forecast had December cold and December is often warm and snowless. Think last year and even 1993. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 It's a pretty astounding pattern for December with a Bermuda high flexing its muscles, keeping us warm and dry. It has zero chance of verifying. And even if it did, nothing wrong with warm temps. If it's not going to be snowing this time of year then it might as well be warm and pleasant. Well there's mild and then there's ridiculous, and I'm very curious to see how December will rank. Will it be a record breaker at number 1? All signs say maybe right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Well there's mild and then there's ridiculous, and I'm very curious to see how December will rank. Will it be a record breaker at number 1? All signs say maybe right now. Not so sure of that....first 7-8 looks average to moderately above. If the last week or 10 days ends up average to below, we're not going to have a #1 month regardless of mid month warmth. I also remember a similar signal last year, and then it came in much more muted that originally forecast.( i also think it was stormy which put a lid on daytime highs) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 The Euro at day 9-10 would have temps 70 or higher in the northeast with +12 850's. Hopefully that's wrong, but that's what it's showing 10 day euro forecast are always on the warm side . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Not so sure of that....first 7-8 looks average to moderately above. If the last week or 10 days ends up average to below, we're not going to have a #1 month regardless of mid month warmth. I also remember a similar signal last year, and then it came in much more muted that originally forecast.( i also think it was stormy which put a lid on daytime highs) Even 2006 and 2011 both very warm months had several mornings in the 20s and even high teens. Right now NYC may not drop below freezing the first 15 days of the month. Not sure the last time that happened. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 10 day euro forecast are always on the warm side . It's not just the euro the GFS and Canadian are showing way above normal warmth too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 Well there's mild and then there's ridiculous, and I'm very curious to see how December will rank. Will it be a record breaker at number 1? All signs say maybe right now. My guess is no way. I think we will see a normal or below normal stretch the final 10 days and I'm not convinced the next 10 will be torch enough to get us top 3. I think top 10 is likely though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 3, 2015 Share Posted December 3, 2015 My guess is no way. I think we will see a normal or below normal stretch the final 10 days and I'm not convinced the next 10 will be torch enough to get us top 3. I think top 10 is likely though I don't know, the gfs still has no temps below 35 at any point in the next 10 days. Pretty unprecedented for that long a stretch in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I think we'll see more of the same with consistent moderate to strong warming along with a lack of record high temps, which means highs mainly in the 50s (a couple 60s) and lows mainly above freezing. Some quick oscillations in the NAO/AO indices and a rapidly dropping SOI make me think we'll see some sort of coastal for Dec 8-9 as the 18z gfs pointed out. I see a moderate to a potentially low end significant event (all rain likely) with 1-2" of rain and gusty conditions. LR gfs indicates a lot more activity for the east, which is plausible the deeper we get into the winter season and start to see more of the Nino's effects on the subtropical jet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I think we'll see more of the same with consistent moderate to strong warming along with a lack of record high temps, which means highs mainly in the 50s (a couple 60s) and lows mainly above freezing. Some quick oscillations in the NAO/AO indices and a rapidly dropping SOI make me think we'll see some sort of coastal for Dec 8-9 as the 18z gfs pointed out. I see a moderate to a potentially low end significant event (all rain likely) with 1-2" of rain and gusty conditions. LR gfs indicates a lot more activity for the east, which is plausible the deeper we get into the winter season and start to see more of the Nino's effects on the subtropical jet. I am looking forward to the possible coastal storm next week. Hopefully it's the first of many to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 4 straight hours of the temp being 46 in the park. Today's departure with the first midnight high and the low so far, is still +9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 And just like that, the 0z GFS loses the coastal threat for next week. It has it offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 And just like that, the 0z GFS loses the coastal threat for next week. It has it offshore. Same old pattern since last spring with the strong block over the Northeast forcing the STJ to our south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Let's hope that pattern doesn't last all winter-going to boring and dry if that is the case Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 And just like that, the 0z GFS loses the coastal threat for next week. It has it offshore. You really can't be that surprised. The Euro has been offshore for days. The flow is way too progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Let's hope that pattern doesn't last all winter-going to boring and dry if that is the case I mean, can it? We are in a strong el nino and it should be acting like it sooner or later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I mean, can it? We are in a strong el nino and it should be acting like it sooner or later. I agree, it's just surprising that we continue to hang onto the same dry pattern and the events we get often grossly underperform especially east of NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The 12z GFS is even further offshore. We have a strong short wave which closes off at H5 but the flow is so progressive thanks to that kicker energy quickly coming through the Norther plains. We're going to need some major changes in order to get this tugged back towards the coast. That's the problem with these bowling ball systems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 I mean, can it? We are in a strong el nino and it should be acting like it sooner or later. Does it matter? No matter the track it would be rain. Unless it's the major nor'easter I'm predicting at some point this winter who cares. You work outside too right? Enjoy the great weather. Unless it's going to snow or be a real deal storm I'll pass on another dark rainy breezy day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 The 12z Euro has something day 7. Mostly rain or mixed precip on this run but way too soon for details. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 4, 2015 Share Posted December 4, 2015 Does it matter? No matter the track it would be rain. Unless it's the major nor'easter I'm predicting at some point this winter who cares. You work outside too right? Enjoy the great weather. Unless it's going to snow or be a real deal storm I'll pass on another dark rainy breezy day. Agree, if it's not going to snow, give me days like today-who needs a day of darkness and light rain that adds up to .25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 First cold morning of the month here with a 29 degree low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I've lived here now nearly 6 years (and in Philly for 2 years before that), but is it normal to have like 60-70% of the trees still full of leaves on Dec 5? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I've lived here now nearly 6 years (and in Philly for 2 years before that), but is it normal to have like 60-70% of the trees still full of leaves on Dec 5? When temps haven't dropped below freezing and theres been little rain and wind I guess so Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 5, 2015 Share Posted December 5, 2015 I've lived here now nearly 6 years (and in Philly for 2 years before that), but is it normal to have like 60-70% of the trees still full of leaves on Dec 5? I remember December 1975 in Brooklyn having leaves on the trees early in the month before it got cold...it is unusual though... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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