Morris Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The NYC December departure is now at +13.1 which is 51.6 through the 24th. Previous top 5 way behind 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 43.6...2006 43.3...2011 43.2...1998 The others are closely bunched together. Just crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 The others are closely bunched together. Just crazy. That's the normal distribution of record monthly highs with each new high only a few tenths to a degree above the previous record. We are seeing an extreme climate event here similar to March 2012 where MW stations beat their previous warmest march by 5 degrees or more. The 2000's keep finding new ways to be extreme. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Using the GFSx for the next 7 days: Actual sums of all the highs and lows through the 24th. is 1371 + 1105 = 2476/48 = 51.6 degs. avg. so far. Adding in the 7 day projections of the GFSx: 1734 + 1421 = 3155/62 = 50.9 degs. as the estimated final result. Thus, it is as if we got stuck back during the first week of November and never made any progress at all. Now this 50.9 would be +13.6. Currently record is +6.8 and I am guessing that this previous all time record represented 4.3 Sigmas---which the all time monthly and annual records probably do in relation to the 30 year norms in effect at the time the record is set---except of course right at the start of record keeping in 1869. So we have here an 8.6 Sigma Event with odds in the millions to one of happening by chance alone, if you are going to accept the current 30 year normal and that no instrument or human errors were involved. Case Closed. Welcome to our New Brave World of Climatology. Perhaps if I get the time I will create a July analog to this month. That will stop the giggling HOT in its tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas from me and the ENSM ao forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas from me and the ENSM ao forecast... If this verifies, it's a pattern flip, not a pattern change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas from me and the ENSM ao forecast... Don't count your chickens before they hatch. The 14-day teleconnection forecasts rarely verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Out of the next 15 days 850's are below normal here on only 2 days, and the 500mb heights are below normal on just 5 days. Look for lowest temps on 1/02-05. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Pushing 70F once again here in the Shenandoah Valley of VA. Stuff is blooming EVERYWHERE, it looks like late March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Some scenes from a record warm December 25: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mriceyman Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Some scenes from a record warm December 25: really awesome stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Merry Christmas from me and the ENSM ao forecast... Sweet finally some potential. It was cool and all breaking records but I'm ready for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 GFSx doesn't get us within 5 degrees of freezing for the remainder of December. I guess, tonight will have another midnight high, as tomorrow might barely hit 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 bluewave, on 25 Dec 2015 - 07:27 AM, said: The NYC December departure is now at +13.1 which is 51.6 through the 24th. Previous top 5 way behind 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 43.6...2006 43.3...2011 43.2...1998 48.5 here so far...warmest was 41,8 in 2006. This has probably been mentioned but this would rank as one of the warmest NOVEMBERS...still a week to go to see where we ultimately wind up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 48.5 here so far...warmest was 41,8 in 2006. This has probably been mentioned but this would rank as one of the warmest NOVEMBERS...still a week to go to see where we ultimately wind up. Yes this December was so warm it would rank among the other months in the top 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 25, 2015 Share Posted December 25, 2015 Park at 63 at 3 pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxnut Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Statistically, this is a December that is off the charts. Through the 25th, the average LOW at NYC for December (46.5F) would in itself be the warmest December on record (which I believe is 44.1 in 2001) I have never heard of that ever happening at any time anywhere. That is just beyond comprehension if that holds through the 31st. Truly something historic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Yup,55 on the car thermo at 330 this am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 48.5 here so far...warmest was 41,8 in 2006. This has probably been mentioned but this would rank as one of the warmest NOVEMBERS...still a week to go to see where we ultimately wind up. One more chance for record warmth this month on Sunday. NYC is currently at an historic 52 degrees and +13.6 for December through the 25th. December 2015 will finish in a similar class as the exceptional warmth that occurred in the Midwest in March 2012. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The insanity is coming to a close and we'll flip from record setting warmth to regular mild temps after tomorrow. The stats for December will be awe worthy once they're all calculated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 49 here this morning. Heat actually clicked on. Exceptional torch 4-6 week period we have just completed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 The GFSx is +15degs. for remainder of month, and at +12degs. overall. After the first 25 days of month: High temps total 1437 and the lows total 1162 1437 + 1162 = 2599/50 = 52.0 avg. currentlyUsing Using the GFSx >>> 1747 +1425 = 3172/62 = 51.2 Final Estimate. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA GFSx uses different normals, leads to some confusion. But final est. should not be affected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Recap and summary of the Christmas torch NYC: 12/22:62/53 (+22) 12/23: 64/52 (+23) 12/24: 72/63 (+33) 12/25: 66/57 (+27) EWR: 12/22: 61/52 (+22) 12/23: 66/50 (+24) 12/24: 71/59 (+31) 1225: 63/54 (+25) LGA: 12/22: 62/54 (+23) 12/23: 63/50 (+21) 12/24: 72/59 (+30) 12/25: 64/54 (+23) JFK: 12/22: 60/52 (+20) 12/23: 63/48 (+20) 12/24: 69/57 (+28) 12/25: 64/52 (+23) TTN: 12/22: 61/52 (+24) 12/23: 69/52 (+28) 12/24: 72/61 (+34) 12/25: 66/60 (+30) PHL: 12/22: 61/54 (+22) 12/23: 70/57 (+29)) 12/24: 71/62 (+32) 12/25: 68/58 (+28) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Wasn't the low in Central Park 63F on Christmas Eve? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 26, 2015 Share Posted December 26, 2015 Wasn't the low in Central Park 63F on Christmas Eve? tnks - corrected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFSx has 71 tomorrow. Record is 63. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Recap and summary of the Christmas torch NYC: 12/22:61/52 (+24) 12/23: 69/53 (+28) 12/24: 72/63 (+34) 12/25: 66/60 (+30) EWR: 12/22: 61/52 (+22) 12/23: 66/50 (+24) 12/24: 71/59 (+31) 1225: 63/54 (+25) LGA: 12/22: 62/54 (+23) 12/23: 63/50 (+21) 12/24: 72/59 (+30) 12/25: 64/54 (+23) JFK: 12/22: 60/52 (+20) 12/23: 63/48 (+20) 12/24: 69/57 (+28) 12/25: 64/52 (+23) TTN: 12/22: 61/52 (+24) 12/23: 69/52 (+28) 12/24: 72/61 (+34) 12/25: 66/60 (+30) PHL: 12/22: 61/54 (+22) 12/23: 70/57 (+29)) 12/24: 71/62 (+32) 12/25: 68/58 (+28) The NYC figures were as follows: 12/22: 62-53 12/23: 64-52 12/24: 72-63 12/25: 66-57 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 You can add +21 in the city today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 The NYC December departure is now at +13.8 which is 52.0 through the 26th. Previous top 5 way behind 52.0...2015 so far 44.1...2001 43.8...1984 43.6...2006 43.3...2011 43.2...1998 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 GFSx has 71 tomorrow. Record is 63. now only has 63 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 27, 2015 Share Posted December 27, 2015 Next weekend is cold with a few seasonal days, and we fall into teens on Monday and Tuesday mornings on GFS. 850's are -14--16 on Monday morning. Euro is similar, but a little warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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