JerseyWx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The forecast for NYC on Christmas Eve is pretty much the same it was on July 4th this year. July 4: 75/69 Dec. 24: 72/62 Nothing like a cool summer day in December. That's just absolutely amazing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How much can we chalk up these anomalous temps to El Nino? The impacts this November and December have not exactly fit the typical El Nino pattern. Little precip south of San Francisco and pretty much everyone east of the Mississippi is torching right now, not just the Midwest. It's also been pretty dry and not very stormy on the East Coast. As some have noted, the pattern right now resembles the winter of 2011-2012, which was a La Nina year. I'm not an expert on El Nino/La Nina, so I'm just wondering. Yeah the El Nino has helped probably but this is more than just the El Nino, this is everything possible going wrong. The AO/NAO are also unusually positive for an El Nino and more resemble a La Nina where there is more frequently no blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Agree and eventually we'll see a March 2012 or a December 2015 during a summer month where it'll not only be record shattering but life threatening on a massive scale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFSx has 75 for tomorrow. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6z GFS has the 540 dm line south of the city for the entirety of January 1-8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 GFSx is again at +20 for the next 8 days (including today) Using actual for the past 22 days, GFSx the next 8, and Accuweather for the last day: (11.8x22) + (20.0x8) + (6x1) = 426 total surplus degrees or 426/31 = +13.7degs. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 6z GFS has the 540 dm line south of the city for the entirety of January 1-8. The NAEFS is only below 5400 from 12/31---01/04. None of the next 5 CFS weeklies looks below normal here or anywhere nearby. The month still figures to be +3 to +5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Very heavy fog in Brooklyn. Didn't see this in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Weird that the city is excluded from the dense fog advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pellice Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 It is amazing that there are no airport delays on this heavy travel day. (6:50 am) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This warm front looks like the most impressive that we have seen in late December with temperatures forecast to rise tonight into tomorrow. NYC just needs to rise above 71 to set the new record daily high for late December set on 12/22/13. It's remarkable that we could get close to the all time December record high of 75 set in 1998. That record occurred on December 7th when the daily means are higher than the 24th. The monthly minimum of 61 is also in play set on 12/22/13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Wow we have some pretty dense fog outside Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 No fog here, just overcast and mild Feels like late April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 This warm front looks like the most impressive that we have seen in late December with temperatures forecast to rise tonight into tomorrow. NYC just needs to rise above 71 to set the new record daily high for late December set on 12/22/13. It's remarkable that we could get close to the all time December record high of 75 set in 1998. That record occurred on December 7th when the daily means are higher than the 24th. The monthly minimum of 61 is also in play set on 12/22/13. How about the fact that there's another big warm shot a couple days after Xmas where we may get very close to 70F again before the extreme anomalies finally start to settle down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How about the fact that there's another big warm shot a couple days after Xmas where we may get very close to 70F again before the extreme anomalies finally start to settle down. The GEFS +18 to +20 over the next week should boost the monthly departure to even more ridiculous levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How about the fact that there's another big warm shot a couple days after Xmas where we may get very close to 70F again before the extreme anomalies finally start to settle down. The GEFS +18-20 over the next week should boost the monthly departure to even more ridiculous levels. I'm thinking +15 for the month is not out of question. No model or forecast had that degree of warmth. Maybe January will only be +10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 More records today... Today is the 20th day on which the high temperature has reached 50° or above in December. The old record was 19, which was set in 1891. Today's low temperature of 52° makes today the 9th day on which low temperature was 50° or above. The old record was 5, which was set in 1982 and tied in 1998. To put things into perspective, even if the remainder of the month finished normal (and it won't), the monthly mean temperature would be 46.5°. The current monthly record is 44.1° (2001) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The GEFS +18 to +20 over the next week should boost the monthly departure to even more ridiculous levels. M7D7.gif the blocking is in the wrong place...It's blocking the cold air from getting here...the ao is at a ridicules high level...the forecast is ridicules also because the members are all over the place...so far this winter the high members are winning and there is no reason to think they will be wrong until I see all members dive...even then I'll believe it when it happens... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Can we start discussing the Mon-Tue storm on this thread? GFS has gotten colder and many of us might actually see our first winter snowflakes. It could also end the possibility of a snowless December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Can we start discussing the Mon-Tue storm on this thread? GFS has gotten colder and many of us might actually see our first winter snowflakes. It could also end the possibility of a snowless December. Verbatim that would start as snow even at the coast places like NYC would be measurable for sure even if only for 1-2 hours in that setup. The high is in a really good spot. The Op Euro at 00z continues to be more west with the storm entirely even down in OK where the GFS shows OKC getting a blizzard but the EURO is more west. As of now I favor the more progressive track of the storm because of the energy crashing into the west coast. I don't think this will be able to cut due north into the Midwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS run now has 540dm line south of the city from 12/31-1/8 end of run.Pattern change. Not flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z GFS run now has 540dm line south of the city from 12/31-12/8 end of run. Pattern change. Not flip. One positive sign too is the GFS continues to try and go zonal Day 14-16 on the Op runs and some ensemble members the last 2 days but as soon as that same period gets inside Day 12 it goes back to the more +PNA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 One positive sign too is the GFS continues to try and go zonal Day 14-16 on the Op runs and some ensemble members the last 2 days but as soon as that same period gets inside Day 12 it goes back to the more +PNA A lot of west coast ridging on the GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 A lot of west coast ridging on the GEFS How do they look for the 12/28 event ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z EURO is a good deal colder with the HP in Canada about 4-6mb stronger and in a much better position as well. System also ejects quicker which allows the area to pick up about an inch or so. Even NYC gets an inch or so with CT seeing 2-5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 12z EURO is a good deal colder with the HP in Canada about 4-6mb stronger and in a much better position as well. System also ejects quicker which allows the area to pick up about an inch or so. Even NYC gets an inch or so with CT seeing 2-5" Does it change over to rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 The euro I think still wraps that thing up too much over Texas it should be more progressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 How do they look for the 12/28 event ? They don't look bad at all. Does it change over to rain? Yes as the low gets near the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Outside of last November's snow here I only recorded 5" for December through 1/21 and Philly probably only had a couple inches total until then. Plenty time for winter to get in gear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 23, 2015 Share Posted December 23, 2015 Feels like it rains every other day now...welcome El Niño Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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