December warm NOT White

[bluewave]

Made it to 70 here on 12/22/13... Yeah that min record above 60 would be amazing. Thinking here in the suburbs at least maybe drop below 60 by midnight but we shall see,

 

 

That 61° minimum from 12/22/2013 is the only minimum reading of 60° or above during meteorological winter. It's amazing that this winter might produce the second such reading.

 

The WAA looks very impressive from later on the 23rd to early hours of the 25th. The GFS keeps the 24th above

60 for the whole 24 hrs. 850's surge to around +15C which is near record levels for the last week of December.

[uncle W]

22 with no days 32 or below so far for December...1998 held the record at 21...November had one compared with seven last year...we are so far behind the last two years...NYC may end up with 60 or less days 32 or lower...1957-58 had 59 which is a low total for such a snowy winter...2011-12 had only 37 which is mind boggling...

total monthly minimums 32 or lower...

year.........Oct...Nov...Dec...Jan...Feb...Mar...Apr...Total min/con...total max/con

2015-16......0.......1.......0

2014-15......0.......7.......9.....25.....28.....16......1......86...38.....26.....5

2013-14......0.......9.....19.....24.....21.....19......1......93...16.....33.....7

2012-13......0.......3.......8.....18.....17.....14.......0.....60...11.....15.....6

2011-12......0.......0.....10.....13.....10.......4.......0.....37.....5.......6.....2

2010-11......0.......0.....25.....28.....19.....11.......0.....83...18.....22.....4

 

2009-10......0.......0.....17.....22.....22.......2.......0.....63...23.....17.....3

2008-09......0.......6.....19.....30.....20.....11.......0.....86...26.....22.....3

2007-08......0.......3.....14.....20.....18.......7.......0.....62...14.......6.....2

2006-07......0.......0.......6.....18.....24.....11.......4.....63...36.....18.....9

2005-06......0.......5.....20.....10.....18.....14.......0.....67...14.......9.....2

2004-05......0.......5.....15.....17.....20.....14.......0.....71...29.....18.....9

2003-04......0.......1.....17.....26.....21.....10.......3.....78...20.....26.....9

2002-03......0.......3.....18.....28.....21.....13.......3.....86...22.....31...12

2001-02......0.......0.......9.....11.....15.......9.......3.....47...12.......3.....2

2000-01......0.......6.....29.....23.....18.....13.......0.....89...22.....20...13

 

1999-00......0.......1.....10.....22.....18.......4.......1.....56...28.....18.....7

1998-99......0.......0.......8.....20.....13.....11.......0.....52...18.....13.....3

1997-98......0.......8.....10.....13.......9.......9.......0.....49.....4.......3.....2

1996-97......0.......8.......7.....25.....14.....12.......3.....69...14.....11.....3

1995-96......0.......8.....24.....24.....18.....15.......0.....89...15.....30.....9

1994-95......0.......3.....10.....19.....20.......5.......3.....60...14.....11.....5

1993-94......0.......3.....15.....29.....24.....13.......0.....84...26.....31.....5

1992-93......0.......5.....13.....21.....27.....14.......0.....80...22.......7.....3

1991-92......0.......2.....15.....19.....15.....16.......1.....68...14.......9.....2

1990-91......0.......2.....11.....20.....14.......6.......1.....54.....8.......7.....1

 

1989-90......0.......9.....31.....10.....15.......9.......0.....74...33.....19.....9

1988-89......1.......1.....19.....16.....21.....13.......0.....71...11.....19.....3

1987-88......0.......5.......9.....24.....23.....11.......0.....72...16.....19.....7

1986-87......0.......6.....10.....23.....23.....11.......1.....74...19.....11.....5

1985-86......0.......0.....23.....21.....21.......9.......0.....74...12.....19.....4

1984-85......0.......5.......6.....28.....18.....10.......2.....69...35.....18.....5

1983-84......0.......1.....17.....26.....10.....13.......0.....67...19.....29.....8

1982-83......0.......4.....10.....18.....14.......7.......0.....53...12.....13.....4

1981-82......0.......2.....15.....26.....20.......9.......5.....77...24.....20.....6

1980-81......0.......2.....24.....27.....14.....12.......0.....79...24.....30...11

 

1979-80......0.......1.....12.....22.....24.....10.......1.....70...31.....19.....5

1978-79......0.......3.....15.....20.....21.......8.......1.....68...22.....26...11

1977-78......0.......4.....15.....27.....27.....13.......1.....87...22.....42...12

1976-77......2.....11.....25.....31.....17.......7.......3.....96...51.....45.....9

1975-76......1.......0.....21.....30.....14.......8.......2.....76...26.....20.....3

1974-75......3.......7.....12.....16.....16.....15.......6.....75...17.......8.....2

1973-74......0.......2.....16.....20.....24.....12.......2.....76...15.....23.....3

1972-73......1.......7.......9.....17.....21.......3.......0.....57.....9.....13.....4

1971-72......0.......5.....12.....18.....23.....16.......4.....78...11.....17.....5

1970-71......0.......4.....21.....29.....12.....12.......0.....78...16.....25.....5

 

1969-70......2.......5.....24.....30.....21.....14.......1.....97...45.....27.....6

1968-69......0.......1.....22.....22.....21.....15.......1.....82...27.....18.....3

1967-68......0.......9.....14.....24.....26.....13.......1.....87...27.....22.....9

1966-67......0.......2.....22.....19.....25.....16.......3.....86...15.....25.....6

1965-66......1.......3.....10.....22.....21.....10.......0.....67...17.....14.....2

1964-65......0.......4.....18.....28.....19.......9.......1.....79...27.....22.....5

1963-64......0.......0.....22.....16.....25.......9.......3.....75...22.....18.....7

1962-63......0.......4.....22.....23.....25.......8.......0.....82...21.....29.....7

1961-62......0.......5.....20.....24.....22.......7.......0.....78...16.....16.....4

1960-61......0.......3.....26.....27.....14.......8.......0.....78...26.....27...16

 

1959-60......0.......6.....12.....24.....20.....26.......0.....88...20.....15.....3

1958-59......0.......3.....28.....24.....21.....17.......0.....93...23.....26...10

1957-58......0.......3.......9.....21.....22.......3.......1.....59...17.....20...12

1956-57......0.......7.....12.....26.....19.......9.......0.....73...12.....12.....6

1955-56......0.......8.....26.....25.....16.....17.......0.....92...19.....23.....4

1954-55......0.......1.....17.....28.....17.....14.......0.....77...33.....16.....4

1953-54......0.......1.......9.....26.....10.....13.......3.....62...16.....15.....4

1952-53......0.......2.....12.....19.....16.......9.......0.....58.....8.......2.....1

1951-52......0.....11.....19.....20.....19.....14.......0.....83...19.....13.....3

1950-51......0.......3.....19.....19.....17.......9.......0.....67...18.....12.....3

 

1949-50......0.......5.....16.....12.....21.....21.......8.....83...18.....12.....3

1948-49......0.......0.....14.....17.....16.....15.......0.....62.....9.......9.....4

1947-48......0.......4.....25.....29.....24.....13.......1.....96...26.....33...10

1946-47......0.......2.....16.....18.....26.....20.......0.....82...18.....12.....5

1945-46......0.......6.....24.....22.....24.......3.......0.....79...18.....24.....9

1944-45......0.......5.....23.....30.....22.......6.......0.....84...36.....25.....5

1943-44......0.......7.....22.....24.....23.....16.......4.....96...16.....17.....3

1942-43......0.......5.....24.....26.....20.....12.......9.....96...13.....29.....5

1941-42......0.......1.....14.....24.....25.......0.......0.....64...16.....19.....6

1940-41......2.......7.....17.....26.....25.....24.......0...101...14.....16.....4

 

1939-40......0.......6.....16.....28.....22.....23.......4.....99...20.....29.....6

1938-39......0.......6.....19.....21.....15.....17.......2.....80...17.....18.....4

1937-38......0.......4.....18.....24.....18.....11.......2.....77...15.....16.....4

1936-37......2.....13.....15.....14.....22.....19.......0.....85...12.....10.....2

1935-36......0.......3.....21.....23.....25.......7.......1.....80...31.....39...12

1934-35......0.......3.....21.....22.....21.....11.......1.....79...12.....24.....5

1933-34......2.....12.....16.....20.....28.....21.......0.....99...36.....38.....9

1932-33......0.......7.....13.....11.....20.....11.......0.....62...11.....13.....4

1931-32......0.......3.....17.......4.....17.....18.......1.....60...12.......5.....2

1930-31......0.......7.....18.....21.....20.......9.......0.....75...15.....12.....3

 

1929-30......0.......5.....18.....20.....18.....10.......2.....73...12.....25.....8

1928-29......1.......3.....14.....27.....19.......8.......0.....72...18.....15.....4

1927-28......0.......4.....17.....19.....20.....18.......1.....79...15.....20.....5

1926-27......0.......7.....28.....23.....16.....10.......0.....84...14.....24.....6

1925-26......3.......9.....19.....21.....25.....20.......5...102...11.....27.....4

1924-25......0.......9.....22.....30.....13.......7.......2.....83...32.....22.....2

1923-24......0.......3.....10.....24.....28.....16.......2.....83...29.....17.....4

1922-23......0.......9.....20.....28.....26.....20.......4...107...24.....31.....6

1921-22......0.......4.....23.....28.....19.....12.......1.....87...13.....23.....6

1920-21......0.......5.....19.....21.....21.......4.......1.....71.....9.....10.....2

 

1919-20......0.......6.....26.....30.....27.....16.......4...109...25.....40.....7

1918-19......0.......3.....16.....17.....19.......9.......4.....68...12.......7.....3

1917-18......1.......7.....29.....31.....19.....12.......2...101...44.....45...10

1916-17......0.......6.....21.....22.....25.....15.......2.....91...20.....26.....6

1915-16......0.......3.....25.....20.....27.....23.......1.....99...47.....37.....6

1914-15......0.......9.....26.....21.....16.....23.......2.....97...25.....23.....7

1913-14......0.......2.....14.....22.....25.....19.......5.....77...38.....26.....7

1912-13......0.......4.....14.....15.....22.......9.......0.....64...15.....16.....6

1911-12......0.......8.....11.....30.....25.....16.......2.....92...26.....39.....8

1910-11......0.......2.....28.....18.....25.....19.......3.....95...18.....31.....5

 

1909-10......0.......1.....22.....25.....24.....10.......0.....82...19.....26.....6

1908-09......0.......5.....17.....19.....13.....16.......2.....72...10.....11.....2

1907-08......0.......0.......9.....25.....26.....14.......3.....77...22.....18.....4

1906-07......0.......2.....21.....17.....25.....12.......3.....80...17.....28.....5

1905-06......0.......5.....15.....12.....17.....22.......1.....72...15.....10.....2

1904-05......0.......5.....28.....25.....27.....13.......0.....98...30.....40.....8

1903-04......0.....11.....24.....29.....28.....19.......6...117...28.....47.....5

1902-03......0.......0.....20.....23.....19.......4.......2.....68...13.....23.....6

1901-02......0.....10.....15.....29.....24.......6.......0.....84...32.....34.....6

1900-01......0.......3.....16.....22.....28.....14.......0.....83...32.....30.....6

 

1899-00......0.......2.....15.....24.....22.....26.......5.....94...21.....22.....8

1898-99......0.......7.....17.....23.....20.....14.......6.....87...21.....23.....9

1897-98......0.......5.....16.....16.....13.......4.......5.....59...15.....12.....3

1896-97......0.......2.....19.....22.....18.....12.......2.....75...15.....24.....8

1895-96......0.......3.....17.....26.....22.....24.......5.....97...19.....31.....7

1894-95......0.......9.....12.....26.....27.....25.......3...102...41.....35.....9

1893-94......0.......9.....24.....25.....22.......8.......4.....92...14.....16.....3

1892-93......0.......9.....17.....30.....26.....18.......0...100...38.....41...13

1891-92......0.......6.....10.....26.....18.....21.......2.....83...13.....21.....3

1890-91......0.......7.....26.....21.....16.....15.......6.....92...11.....23.....4..... 1 min in May

 

1889-90......1.......6.....11.....21.....15.....19.......3.....76...10.....15.....3

1888-89......0.......9.....21.....17.....26.....11.......0.....84...20.....15.....3

1887-88......2.......8.....20.....31.....24.....23.......4...110...45.....44.....7

1886-87......0.......7.....24.....26.....22.....28.......8...115...28.....33.....5

1885-86......0.......6.....23.....25.....21.....15.......1.....91...22.....29...10

1884-85......0.......5.....16.....25.....28.....25.......3...102...34.....38.....8

1883-84......0.......9.....23.....28.....21.....15.......1.....97...16.....35.....6

1882-83......0.....14.....24.....29.....26.....25.......3...121...32.....39.....6

1881-82......0.......7.....13.....22.....19.....15.......4.....80...13.....21.....5

1880-81......0.....13.....27.....31.....24.....15.......6...111...56.....52...15

 

1879-80......2.....10.....18.....14.....18.....20.......5.....87...11.....12.....2

1878-79......0.......4.....22.....30.....26.....15.......4...101...43.....35.....6

1877-78......0.......8.....18.....22.....19.......7.......0.....74...12.....21.....6

1876-77......1.......2.....29.....29.....12.....18.......2.....93...23.....41.....9
........................................................................................................................................

[forkyfork]

another chance at 70 on sunday. lol

[nzucker]

I thought having three consecutive days 60 or above around Christmas time was the worst...That happened in 1964...Newark was 69 on Christmas Day...This year blows away any bad starting winters of my lifetime and I'm as old as dirt...

This is insane, literally. Never seen a Nov/Dec couplet so mild.

[KEITH L.I]

I thought having three consecutive days 60 or above around Christmas time was the worst...That happened in 1964...Newark was 69 on Christmas Day...This year blows away any bad starting winters of my lifetime and I'm as old as dirt...

May weather in December..I have never seen it this warm in November and December.I mean you can't get a day in the low 40's..lol..beyond insane.The other strong nino's were mild but nothing even close to this.I doubt we will ever see these departures again.This is like in July having high temps in the 50's..unreal

[donsutherland1]

This is insane, literally. Never seen a Nov/Dec couplet so mild.

There has never been one since recordkeeping began in 1869 in NYC. November-December 2001 (both the warmest November and December on record until 2015) was the previous warmest such November-December period.

[nzucker]

May weather in December..I have never seen it this warm in November and December.I mean you can't get a day in the low 40's..lol..beyond insane.The other strong nino's were mild but nothing even close to this.I doubt we will ever see these departures again.This is like in July having high temps in the 50's..unreal

Even 97-98 had a cold November, and I believe ten 32F minima at KNYC in December. Nothing close to this torch.

[Brian5671]

Even 97-98 had a cold November, and I believe ten 32F minima at KNYC in December. Nothing close to this torch.

97-98 WAS COLD FROM Nov to mid december before blowtorching the rest of the winter

[nzucker]

97-98 WAS COLD FROM Nov to mid december before blowtorching the rest of the winter

01-02 was the one winter that had literally no cold (except the freak elevation/upstate snowstorm on May 18, 2002).

But the difference was that 01-02 was a blowtorch nationally. This winter has been quite cold out west. The Colorado ski resorts have received nearly 200" snowfall, and Denver is expecting a high of 19F this Saturday.

[uncle W]

this year is starting off about ten degrees above last years start...If it continues at that pace the winter will end up as the warmest on record for DJF...But if February is only ten degrees warmer than last year it still would be below average...

[bluewave]

The only other recent month that can really compare to to these extreme departures was 

March 2012 in the Midwest. The December extreme double digit departures were able to

push into our area since the ridge was a little further east. Several stations in the Midwest

beat their warmest March on record by 5 degrees or more. 

 

 

[Brian5671]

and I thought March 2012 was hot here....had to be many days in the 70's and 80's in the midwest

[Rittenhouse]

This winter has been quite cold out west. The Colorado ski resorts have received nearly 200" snowfall, and Denver is expecting a high of 19F this Saturday.

 

As the anomaly map shows above, it hasn't been that cold out West. It has been a torch for nearly the entire Northern Hemisphere this winter. The bulk of the anomalous precipitation has been in Pac NW.

[Brian5671]

As the anomaly map shows above, it hasn't been that cold out West. It has been a torch for nearly the entire Northern Hemisphere this winter. The bulk of the anomalous precipitation has been in Pac NW.

Agree-there's been some bouts of cold out there, but it's not that cold really.   Western Canada has seen some stronger - departures

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

01-02 was the one winter that had literally no cold (except the freak elevation/upstate snowstorm on May 18, 2002).

But the difference was that 01-02 was a blowtorch nationally. This winter has been quite cold out west. The Colorado ski resorts have received nearly 200" snowfall, and Denver is expecting a high of 19F this Saturday.

19 is not that cold for Denver his time of year. The west has been cool but not super cold. Mountain snow there is not hard to come by even during normal conditions. The real true artic air is stuck up over the pole. I have always thought this winter would feature allot of marginal temp storms. I think that's the big problem for the coast when we finally see some cooler air. Again I would want to be inland and elevated this winter for any hope of a big second half.

[bluewave]

and I thought March 2012 was hot here....had to be many days in the 70's and 80's in the midwest

 

Chicago beat their previous warmest March by about 5 degrees and finished at +15.6.

It's interesting that an El Nino and La Nina can have such a similar looking 500 mb

pattern. You can see the ridge just a little further east than in March 2012.

 

 

[Rittenhouse]

 

GFS throws a bone to the weenies. Snow depth at 168hr

[IsentropicLift]

 

GFS throws a bone to the weenies. Snow depth at 168hr

It's showing sleet as snow. No bones.

 

 

[Morris]

Park hit 60.

[SnoSki14]

We will see a lot more red on that map after these next few days. In terms of extreme CONUS anomalies, this month wil rank second to March 2012.

Read Mt. Holly's discussion and they basically said this month will almost be on par with the average monthlies of April not to mention it would rank in the top 3 warmest Marches and top 8 Novembers.

[nzucker]

As the anomaly map shows above, it hasn't been that cold out West. It has been a torch for nearly the entire Northern Hemisphere this winter. The bulk of the anomalous precipitation has been in Pac NW.

Yeah true, there have been some significant cold shots and major snowfalls out west but the month is still slightly on the warm side. Ski resorts are doing well though.

Obviously the hemisphere is warm with the big Nino but AK, W Canada, and Greenland have had the colder anomalies.

[Morris]

Park up to 62 at 5 pm.

Just another regular day.

[AvantHiatus]

May weather in December..I have never seen it this warm in November and December.I mean you can't get a day in the low 40's..lol..beyond insane.The other strong nino's were mild but nothing even close to this.I doubt we will ever see these departures again.This is like in July having high temps in the 50's..unreal

Why tho? It's not like this ENSO event was anything special, besides being a little more west based than 97-98. More or less basin wide.

[Rittenhouse]

Why tho? It's not like this ENSO event was anything special, besides being a little more west based than 97-98. More or less basin wide.

 

How much can we chalk up these anomalous temps to El Nino? The impacts this November and December have not exactly fit the typical El Nino pattern. Little precip south of San Francisco and pretty much everyone east of the Mississippi is torching right now, not just the Midwest. It's also been pretty dry and not very stormy on the East Coast. As some have noted, the pattern right now resembles the winter of 2011-2012, which was a La Nina year. I'm not an expert on El Nino/La Nina, so I'm just wondering.

[donsutherland1]

Why tho? It's not like this ENSO event was anything special, besides being a little more west based than 97-98. More or less basin wide.

Right now, if all of December's remaining days had normal temperatures (they won't), this would be a once-in-35-year event on a statistical basis (just over 1.9 sigma from the 1981-2010 norm). By the time the month concludes, assuming the ECMWF or GFS are reasonably accurate, this could be at least a 200-year to 300-year-type event. Even when one assumes a continuation of the ongoing warming, such an outcome would be very unlikely (not necessarily impossible) to be replicated even during the lifetimes of AmericanWx's youngest members.

[SnoSki14]

Why tho? It's not like this ENSO event was anything special, besides being a little more west based than 97-98. More or less basin wide.

Agree and eventually we'll see a March 2012 or a December 2015 during a summer month where it'll not only be record shattering but life threatening on a massive scale.

[Superstorm93]

This is just ludicrous. We may see precip tomorrow/Thursday continue to increase due to the highly anomalous PWATS present. 

 

5std deviations from normal:

 

[AvantHiatus]

Right now, if all of December's remaining days had normal temperatures (they won't), this would be a once-in-35-year event on a statistical basis (just over 1.9 sigma from the 1981-2010 norm). By the time the month concludes, assuming the ECMWF or GFS are reasonably accurate, this could be at least a 200-year to 300-year-type event. Even when one assumes a continuation of the ongoing warming, such an outcome would be very unlikely (not necessarily impossible) to be replicated even during the lifetimes of AmericanWx's youngest members.

For the first time, I have to disagree with you DonS. Although the bolded portion is true if one assumes a linear increase in global temperature.

[donsutherland1]

For the first time, I have to disagree with you DonS. Although the bolded portion is true if one assumes a linear increase in global temperature.

Actually, if one considers possible non-linear responses, your point is valid. I just ran some numbers for a once-in-250-year case. If the temperature rises 1.0°F and the standard deviation increases 25%, that would become a once-in-38-year event. If the temperature increases 1.5°F and the standard deviation increases 50%, that event would become a once-in-16-year occurrence.

[Rittenhouse]

The forecast for NYC on Christmas Eve is pretty much the same it was on July 4th this year.

 

July 4: 75/69

Dec. 24: 72/62

 

Nothing like a cool summer day in December.