Morris Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 43/34 in the park today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Clouds and rain are likely going to keep temps in the 60's on Christmas Eve. Still going to be muggy though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Impressive looking post Xmas storm system on the gfs. It looks like something we'd normally see in latter winter/early spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 Impressive looking post Xmas storm system on the gfs. It looks like something we'd normally see in latter winter/early spring. Yeah. A possible ice storm for areas north of NYC with that backdoor high pressure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 20, 2015 Share Posted December 20, 2015 With some blocking we might have gotten some snow out of that setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The ensembles have come in even warmer especially over the next week in an already historic December pattern. The current December +11.3 in NYC is set to rise easily surpassing 2001 for the warmest December by a wide margin. Just an amazing pattern this year with warmth and anomalous ridging persisting from May right into the early winter so far. Next 7 day departure forecast GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 GFSx has Thursday and Friday at 71. The coldest day in the next 8 days is next Monday which is still +10. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KNYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The ensembles have come in even warmer especially over the next week in an already historic December pattern. The current December +11.3 in NYC is set to rise easily surpassing 2001 for the warmest December by a wide margin. Just an amazing pattern this year with warmth and anomalous ridging persisting from May right into the early winter so far. That is phenomenal; those numbers are literally off the charts, and this month's warmth is the cherry on top. The fact that this December's departure could be nearly double that of 2001 is jaw dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The ensembles have come in even warmer especially over the next week in an already historic December pattern. The current December +11.3 in NYC is set to rise easily surpassing 2001 for the warmest December by a wide margin. Just an amazing pattern this year with warmth and anomalous ridging persisting from May right into the early winter so far. That is phenomenal; those numbers are literally off the charts, and this month's warmth is the cherry on top. The fact that this December's departure could be nearly double that of 2001 is jaw dropping. Perhaps the global warming has finally kinked in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The ensembles have come in even warmer especially over the next week in an already historic December pattern. The current December +11.3 in NYC is set to rise easily surpassing 2001 for the warmest December by a wide margin. Just an amazing pattern this year with warmth and anomalous ridging persisting from May right into the early winter so far. That is phenomenal; those numbers are literally off the charts, and this month's warmth is the cherry on top. The fact that this December's departure could be nearly double that of 2001 is jaw dropping. This will be the greatest positive monthly departure for NYC. We normally beat the previous record by a few tenths to a degree. This is just off the charts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GFSx is now +19degs. for the next 8 days (including today) Using actual for first 20 days, GFSx for the next 8, and Accuweather for final 3 days of the month: (11.3x20) + (19.0x8) + (8.0x3) = 402 or 402/31 =+13degs. for the month. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 The GFSx is now +19degs. for the next 8 days (including today) Using actual for first 20 days, GFSx for the next 8, and Accuweather for final 3 days of the month: (11.3x20) + (19.0x8) + (8.0x3) = 402 or 402/31 =+13degs. for the month. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA It has been jumping back and forth....in 10 more days this horrible month will be over! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This will be the greatest positive monthly departure for NYC. We normally beat the previous record by a few tenths to a degree. This is just off the charts. You either accept the fact the 30-year normals are no longer valid, as they are too long to capture a moving target---or you must admit this a Sigma 6+ event, putting it in the once every thousand to ten thousand year category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 If you count this december and look at the numbers from 2001 to 2015, december has warned almost 2 degrees above the 1981-2010 averages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 You either accept the fact the 30-year normals are no longer valid, as they are too long to capture a moving target---or you must admit this a Sigma 6+ event, putting it in the once every thousand to ten thousand year category. When you add the background warming trend to such a strong El Nino these extreme departures outside the 30 year climo can happen. Something similar happened in the Midwest during a La Nina in March 2012. Chicago beat their previous warmest March by 5 degrees. The common denominator along with the warming is super strong 500 mb ridges getting stuck in place for extended periods of time. This persistent ridge has been responsible for record warmth here going back to May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This month definitely reminds me of March 2012 accept that month was even more extreme than what we're currently witnessing. 12z gfs ups the warm ante even more. I really believe all time monthly record highs will fail, which happens to be the only major record left to break. Highs ranging from 74-78F are my guess for Xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 This month definitely reminds me of March 2012 accept that month was even more extreme than what we're currently witnessing. 12z gfs ups the warm ante even more. I really believe all time monthly record highs will fail, which happens to be the only major record left to break. Highs ranging from 74-78F are my guess for Xmas eve. No way. Not even close. We're likely to eclipse the warmest December on record by 5+ degrees...March 2012 didn't even make the top spot. This month might even end up warmer than March 2012 in absolute terms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 No way. Not even close. We're likely to eclipse the warmest December on record by 5+ degrees...March 2012 didn't even make the top spot. This month might even end up warmer than March 2012. I wasn't referring to March 2012's impacts on us but rather the extreme nature of the month and its target location, which focused on the Midwest/Plain states. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Highs ranging from 74-78F are my guess for Xmas eve. No model is showing 78 degrees for this area. I wouldn't be surprised if Philadelphia surpasses 70 degrees, but I don't think Central Park will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 I wasn't referring to March 2012's impacts on us but rather the extreme nature of the month and its target location, which focused on the Midwest/Plain states. Ah ok. Yeah, March 2012 was pretty insane for the nation as a whole. Hard to compare March to December, though. Two very different animals...December has it's swings, but never have we seen a month of winter completely erased like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 too cloudy and damp for mid 70's IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 the nam shows us breaking records at 12:01 am xmas eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 ewr's record is 64 and this shows mid 60's at 6z. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 the gfs agrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 too cloudy and damp for mid 70's IMO. We need to speed up the warm front in order to get the really outrageous temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Let's not lose sight of the SST's which are rising. Now 55degs. @ 44065, and Coney Island is reporting 53degs. and this is given as +8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 what were the sst when we had the halloween snowstorm a few years ago.. or the snowstorm after sandy.. they had to be similar or maybe even higher... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 Let's not lose sight of the SST's which are rising. Now 55degs. @ 44065, and Coney Island is reporting 53degs. and this is given as +8. Unreal. Coastal locations probably won't have the luxury of cooler SSTs to help them in marginal setups even into late January this winter. On the other hand, you'd think we could be in for quite a show of a storm if we can ever manage to get a true arctic air mass combined with a good coastal track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 what were the sst when we had the halloween snowstorm a few years ago.. or the snowstorm after sandy.. they had to be similar or maybe even higher...[/quote Way warmer then currently right around 60. All it took was the 20 miles of Long Island sound to turn the north shore of LI to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 21, 2015 Share Posted December 21, 2015 what were the sst when we had the halloween snowstorm a few years ago.. or the snowstorm after sandy.. they had to be similar or maybe even higher...[/quote Way warmer then currently right around 60. All it took was the 20 miles of Long Island sound to turn the north shore of LI to rain. Over the years I've found that usually if your 850s are -10c or warmer you usually want the ocean temps to be 44-45 or lower in order to not have potential mixing issues. Of course that is with a long fetch. I don't think an 040 wind off long island sound with a 50 degree water temp would be enough to change things over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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