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December warm NOT White


PB GFI

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The GFSx for the next 8 days (including today) is back to +16degs.  Isn't this where we came in?  Using the GFSx for the next 8 days, and Accuweather for the last 4 days:

(11.7x19) + (8x16) + (4x10) = 390    or 390/31 = +12.6degs. for the month.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

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The GFSx for the next 8 days (including today) is back to +16degs. Isn't this where we came in? Using the GFSx for the next 8 days, and Accuweather for the last 4 days:

(11.7x19) + (8x16) + (4x10) = 390 or 390/31 = +12.6degs. for the month.

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA

Now showing 71 for Thursday.

+30 in the summer would be a mass-casualty event.

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Look here.  Anyone who believes our 30 year normals are still in effect and accurate must also believe that this months final result means that one could take a thermometer and stand in CPK for the next 1,000 to 10,000 years before he could reasonably expect to get another December like this recorded.  We must be 6-7 Sigmas above the norm.     Why this month alone will add about .40 degs. to the 30 year avg.   Gotta change to a 20 year norm (or even shorter)  updated every other year to keep up with the changes and have an equal chance of being above or below that new normal.

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this is something that worries me going forward. .but my gut says by 1/25 if we get real cold and right storm track we could overcome this

I think the cold comes before this. The ensembles from the GFS and Euro have it coming way before this. The warm sst can really help us out if we get cold air into the area with a favorable track. Talk about bombogenisis.

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There seems to be some support growing for more of a normal to slightly above temp pattern starting at the end of the month. We might still be above normal, but the huge torch days might be coming to a end...

Agree-most modeling shows us above after the 24th, but not this +20 type stuff.

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There seems to be some support growing for more of a normal to slightly above temp pattern starting at the end of the month. We might still be above normal, but the huge torch days might be coming to a end...

Nice bowling ball on 12z at 200. That would be interesting but a direct west to east bomb seems crazy...would be nice to be on north side of that....and I agree with your point

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