Morris Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Really impressive to see 17 out of 18 days in December in NYC with a high above 50 degrees. Looks like only Saturday and Sunday will stay below 50 before more 50's and 60's next week. NYC is at 12.4 and the warmth over the remainder of the month should keep the monthly Departure at +10 or greater. it's possible some areas reach 70 degrees if we get enough breaks of sun on the warmest day next week. Today starts with a +15 maximum departure with the 57 midnight high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Today starts with a +15 maximum departure with the 57 midnight high. Very stable Western US Nino trough and Northeast ridge with the record warmth since last May. I guess this is what happens when the new era of stuck 500 patterns meets such a strong El Nino event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 This December record is going to stick around for a very long time. We won't only beat the previous record, we're smashing it by several degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Overnight Euro suggests record-smashing temps on Christmas Eve. 70+ F in New Jersey and the NYC Metro. https://t.co/lZEGxIm9Dy Going to be a royal mess for those getting a lake effect storm, with it melting faster than it fell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Overnight Euro suggests record-smashing temps on Christmas Eve. 70+ F in New Jersey and the NYC Metro. https://t.co/lZEGxIm9Dy Going to be a royal mess for those getting a lake effect storm, with it melting faster than it fell. is the Euro dry for the 24th and 25th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Overnight Euro suggests record-smashing temps on Christmas Eve. 70+ F in New Jersey and the NYC Metro. https://t.co/lZEGxIm9Dy Going to be a royal mess for those getting a lake effect storm, with it melting faster than it fell. The late December pattern really changed here after the Boxing Day Blizzard back in 2010. The 20th-31st has featured above normal to record high temperatures in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and now 2015. NYC 12/20-12/31 highs since 2011: 12/21/11...62 12/21/12...56 12/22/13...71 12/25/14...62 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 The late December pattern really changed here after the Boxing Day Blizzard back in 2010. The 20th-31st has featured above normal to record high temperatures in 2011, 2012, 2013, 2014, and now 2015. NYC 12/20-12/31 highs since 2011: 12/21/11...62 12/21/12...56 12/22/13...71 12/25/14...62 There was also a period of warmth post Boxing day-I remember the snow mostly melting away after that and a real warm night on the 1st of January-driving down 95 with water everywhere from melting snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 There was also a period of warmth post Boxing day-I remember the snow mostly melting away after that and a real warm night on the 1st of January-driving down 95 with water everywhere from melting snow. It may be tough to replicate the magnitude of two late December blizzards in a row during 2009 and 2010. But things have been much warmer since then. The 2000's patterns continue to swing from one extreme to another. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12192009.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12262010.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 It may be tough to replicate the magnitude of two late December blizzards in a row during 2009 and 2010. But things have been much warmer since then. The 2000's patterns continue to swing from one extreme to another. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12192009.html http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormEvents/storm12262010.html Great storms-although I got screwed-western edge of 09 and eastern edge of 10! LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 GFSx is +13 for next 8 days (including today). (12.4x17) + (13x8) = 315deg. surplus with a target of 211. So last 6 days of month would have to be 104/6= -17degs. to prevent a new monthly record. For that matter, the remaining 14 days of the month could come in at exactly normal now and we would still set the record! Crazy statistical stuff. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA In addition, the 30 day analog does not show a good chance of a below normal day till Jan. 15, or some 45 consecutive days if we make through Dec. w/o any. A major change is indicated by this because it does look like it will NOT be just a two day accidental cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 looks similar to the busted week 4 forecast from november valid this week https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/677842176043282432 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 My current guess is that we finish this month at +11.8 or 49.3degs. Ah, shucks, not even good enough to make the Top Ten----for Nov. LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 GFSx is +13 for next 8 days (including today). (12.4x17) + (13x8) = 315deg. surplus with a target of 211. So last 6 days of month would have to be 104/6= -17degs. to prevent a new monthly record. For that matter, the remaining 14 days of the month could come in at exactly normal now and we would still set the record! Crazy statistical stuff. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA In addition, the 30 day analog does not show a good chance of a below normal day till Jan. 15, or some 45 consecutive days if we make through Dec. w/o any. A major change is indicated by this because it does look like it will be just a two day accidental cold. It calculates today's high as 50, but we had a midnight high, so it's higher. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 is the Euro dry for the 24th and 25th? Slight chance of showers but mainly dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro going with 70 degrees and +14C 850's on the 24th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Euro going with 70 degrees and +14C 850's on the 24th. Nothin like short on Charismats Eve! has happened before though. Though Id love to see the Xmas Noreaster redux. Remember it so well! Cold heavy rain and then the stacked low in the Atlantic changed it all to heavy pounding snow with wind for 6 -7 hours, end result 7 inches near JFK and much more up north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2015 Share Posted December 18, 2015 Nothin like short on Charismats Eve! has happened before though. Though Id love to see the Xmas Noreaster redux. Remember it so well! Cold heavy rain and then the stacked low in the Atlantic changed it all to heavy pounding snow with wind for 6 -7 hours, end result 7 inches near JFK and much more up north. Any highs of 65 or greater in NYC puts it in the top 5 warmest 12/15-12/31 record highs. NYC top 5 record highs 12/15-12/31: #1...71....2013 #2...70....1984 #3...67....2008 #4...66....1990 #5...65.....2013...2008...1984...1982 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 In the next few hours central park will drop below 39 for the first time this month..on the 18th..of December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dsnowx53 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 looks similar to the busted week 4 forecast from november valid this week Not sure I agree. The latter looks like a PAC flow dominated warm Canada, where the former looks like a PNA ridge and an STJ undercutting that. I'd say the new week 4 pattern is much better. It's still not great considering the hostile Atlantic, but it's something we can for sure work with in mid-January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Not sure I agree. The latter looks like a PAC flow dominated warm Canada, where the former looks like a PNA ridge and an STJ undercutting that. I'd say the new week 4 pattern is much better. It's still not great considering the hostile Atlantic, but it's something we can for sure work with in mid-January. it's roughly the same pattern shifted west a bit. my main point is that it busted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Temp dropping nicely here... Down to 26.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 Flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 This is going onto the list of extreme 500 mb patterns during 2000's that got stuck place for an extended period of time. The same 500 mb pattern allowed us to tie the warmest fall and easily surpass 2001 for the warmest December on record. Fall 2015 December 2015 so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 The park down to 35 for the low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 The GFSx remains double-digits above normal for the next 8 days (including today) at +12degs. (12.3x18) + (8x12) = 317 Target for a new monthly record is 211. Using GFSx for the next 8 days and Accuweather for the last 5 days of the month, I get a whopping surplus of 317 + 45 = 362/31days = about +11.7degs for the month!!!!!! http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA http://www.accuweather.com/en/us/new-york-ny/10007/december-weather/349727 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 MY CORRECTED FINAL FOR DECEMBER IS +11.7degs, . as of today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 the ao is forecast to be very high again...But heads back down in the long run...One member drops to almost -4...I doubt that happens but if it does it's a game changer... back to no hope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 might be another winter with no AO or NAO help and we have to hope the -EPO comes through again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 might be another winter with no AO or NAO help and we have to hope the -EPO comes through again. It will be, everything will come down to the Pacific but that's going to be extremely difficult with a strong Nino running the show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 19, 2015 Share Posted December 19, 2015 back to no hope... This month was supposed to be ****ty. No surprise this looks like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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