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December warm NOT White


PB GFI

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So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days.

 

I decided to just wait until up to the 15th was available since its basically the halfway point. I'm only keeping track of how things are progressing with these posts and how the month as a whole is panning out. No matter how unfavorable, or favorable, depending on your point of view.

 

So, from top to bottom:

Dec 1-7

Dec 7-15

Dec 1-15

 

 

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post-4973-0-84575900-1450390920_thumb.gi

post-4973-0-18673600-1450390946_thumb.gi

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the ao is forecast to be very high again...But heads back down in the long run...One member drops to almost -4...I doubt that happens but if it does it's a game changer...

 

We'll likely get one more warm spell around New Years before the pattern shifts and we return to more seasonal temperatures. I don't see any sustained Arctic blasts, but at least it looks stormier. It doesn't take much cold air to get a snowstorm in mid-January, especially inland.

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Yeah, this is on track to be a very extreme record warmth event. Most of warmest months on record

are only a few tenths to a degree warmer than the previous record.

Yes it's truly remarkable and most people don't even realize it. The persistence has by far been the most impressive factor because we've seen warm several Dec days in the 60s and a few 70s.

But we've never had very warm/record temps+ monthly duration before.

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This is by far the best week four that we've seen in a long, long time. Is it perfect? Absolutely not, but it shows a change over Canada that would hopefully usher in some seasonal air

Fingers crossed. The 57-58 analog is really catching my eye

a101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e.jpg

3e0143c9a9090920d8db35961503f696.jpg

Sent from my SM-G925V

That would be a huge change if correct. We have a +PNA with an active southern stream. The NAO is positive but we can still do ok in that pattern. It's a step in the right direction.

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Please please say it's true. I'm sure the guys that plow your estates are praying for it too!!

The EPO does go NEG on the weeklies. Around the 1st. Looks as if 850 anomalies after the 5th which are weeks 3 and 4 go from +2 to N which is workable.

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I wonder if my little banter cheering section see the NEG EPO develop on the weeklies around the 1st.

I hate when that happens.

Dude, in all seriousness stop being so cocky about the weather. It's like you think it's obeying your every order and command and it's going to happen because you said so. I was like that somewhat but I learned my lesson in humility. Mother Nature has a way of winning in the end you know
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Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week.  As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th.  I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th.

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Dude, in all seriousness stop being so cocky about the weather. It's like you think it's obeying your every order and command and it's going to happen because you said so. I was like that somewhat but I learned my lesson in humility. Mother Nature has a way of winning in the end you know

Dude its weather. If I blow up do you think I care. Is anyone else really effected. It's a weather board visited and opined by lovers of weather.

You don't find humor in seeing people who don't like you have to eat your sht when you verify ?

It really isn't a big deal.  That said if the pattern once again evolves towards  my idea , don`t blame the messenger . 

Now the EPO is going NEG so get out of here and go get your shine box.

JK.

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Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week. As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th. I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th.

I am not saying it's right. But week 3 followed in line with last week's week 4.

So you do want to see the model replicate some recycling in the PAC as we get closer and week 3 hints at it.

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This is by far the best week four that we've seen in a long, long time. Is it perfect? Absolutely not, but it shows a change over Canada that would hopefully usher in some seasonal air

Fingers crossed. The 57-58 analog is really catching my eye

a101b80ddebb5166b5d8dfdd2745cc1e.jpg

Sent from my SM-G925V

looks similar to the busted week 4 forecast from november valid this week

 

500za_week4_bg_na1.png

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Around this time last year the Euro weeklies I think briefly showed improvement at week 4 or so and then ended up showing a torch again on week 3 and 4 the ensuing week.  As it turns out they were more or less correct, it ended up being closer to week 5 from this point when we really began turning it around minus that one cold spell around the 8th we moderated again til the 20th.  I wouldn't be surprised if again its closer to the 20th-25th.

Once the pattern switched, it never went back. Cold and snowy until April. We had near 20 inches of snow last March.

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Really impressive to see 17 out of 18 days in December in NYC with a high above 50 degrees.

Looks like only Saturday and Sunday will stay below 50 before more 50's and 60's next week.

NYC is at 12.4 and the warmth over the remainder of the month should keep the monthly

Departure at +10 or greater. it's possible some areas reach 70 degrees if we get enough 

breaks of sun on the warmest day next week.

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