December warm NOT White

[uncle W]

Yeah, NYC reaching near or above normal seasonal snowfall can come down to a single event. Remove the big storm

and the season is a lackluster one. While 94-95 still finished with below normal 

snowfall, the one major event saved NYC from the lowest snowfall season on record.

 

NYC snowfall seasons that wouldn't have been very memorable without the one big storm:

 

Seasonal snowfall.....without the biggest storm

 

68-69.....30.2....14.9

78-79.....29.4....16.7

82-83.....27.2......9.6

86-87.....23.1....15.0

92-93.....24.5....13.9

94-95....11.8.......1.0

00-01....35.0.....23.0

05-06....40.0.....13.1

08-09....27.6.....19.3

12-13....26.1.....14.7

some other one storm winters...

1875-76...18.3.....7.3.....11.0"

1877-78.....8.1.....0.1.......8.0"

1912-13...15.3.....3.9.....11.4"

1920-21...18.6.....6.1.....12.5"

1928-29...13.8.....5.8.......8.0"

1953-54...15.8.....7.2.......8.6"

1974-75...13.1.....5.3.......7.8"

[EastonSN+]

While it's too early to say if it will be the case this year, several winters are remembered mainly for 1 storm such as

12-13, 05-06, 00-01, 94-95, 92-93, 86-87...etc..So luck or randomness can often play a role. Just look at

some of the model runs which were a miss for Boxing day and the late January storm last winter.

12-13 ended up being a good winter with over 40 total, 22 from the blizzard in coastal Fairfield County

[Isotherm]

I wrote a new blog post on the pattern going forward.

 

 

http://www.lightinth...om/archives/954

[donsutherland1]

I wrote a new blog post on the pattern going forward.

 

 

http://www.lightinth...om/archives/954

Very nice discussion.

[Isotherm]

Very nice discussion.

 

Thanks, Don.

[mattinpa]

I wrote a new blog post on the pattern going forward.

http://www.lightinth...om/archives/954

Excellent! Are you a meteorologist? If not, I think you would be a good one. Hopefully we can get something going by Christmas.

[PB GFI]

December was always suppose to be a warmer than N month . It has been opined on here for some time and that part of the forecast looks good .

 

Now it does not mean the rest of the forecast will be correct and time will tell  , but there have been other NINO winters that were AN early  that came roaring back.

 

So as the next 15 days shown below tell you where we are headed ( IMO through most of Dec)  , what may come after may be worth the wait . 

 

If you believe this warmth carries through J-M , then look away  because  WARM DECEMBERS  are not always a prelude to a garbage winter . 

[Rtd208]

I honestly think that the NYC metro region will see at least one winter storm in December, but I think that will be confined to the last 10 days of the month.

[Stormlover74]

The degree of NYC warmth during an El Nino December really doesn't have much relationship

to how strong the El Nino is. The general seasonal response to the El Nino is above normal

NYC temperatures in December. 7 years since 57 featured average temperatures in NYC

at 40 degrees or higher.

7 warmest El Nino Decembers in NYC since 57 and peak ONI

1957....40.2....+1.7...strong

1965....40.5....+1.8...strong

1979....41.1....+0.6...weak

1982....42.8....+2.1...very strong

1994....42.2....+1.0...weak to moderate

2006....43.6....+1.0...weak to moderate

2015....40.5....+0.6...weak

2015?

[uncle W]

The degree of NYC warmth during an El Nino December really doesn't have much relationship 

to how strong the El Nino is. The general seasonal response to the El Nino is above normal

NYC temperatures in December. 7 years since 57 featured average temperatures in NYC

at 40 degrees or higher. 

 

7 warmest El Nino Decembers in NYC since 57 and peak ONI 

 

1957....40.2....+1.7...strong

1965....40.5....+1.8...strong

1979....41.1....+0.6...weak

1982....42.8....+2.1...very strong

1994....42.2....+1.0...weak to moderate

2006....43.6....+1.0...weak to moderate

2015....40.5....+0.6...weak

all had a plus ao/nao for the month...we need a negative ao/nao in December...

[bluewave]

all had a plus ao/nao for the month...we need a negative ao/nao in December...

 

The positive option has been winning out for El Nino Decembers since 1979.

Only 1997, 2002, and 2009 had both a -AO/-NAO during December.

 

8 out of 12 El Nino Decembers with +AO

9 out of 12....................................+NAO

[bluewave]

2015?

 

Should read 2014.

[SnowGoose69]

The positive option has been winning out for El Nino Decembers since 1979.

Only 1997, 2002, and 2009 had both a -AO/-NAO during December.

8 out of 12 El Nino Decembers with +AO

9 out of 12....................................+NAO

It's odd because El Niños as a whole tend to favor more blocking overall during the winter but that certainly doesn't seem to be the case for December most of the time.

[bluewave]

It's odd because El Niños as a whole tend to favor more blocking overall during the winter but that certainly doesn't seem to be the case for December most of the time.

 

Yeah, typically we see at least one -AO month in an El Nino during JFM. 14-15, 91-92, and 72-73 were the only three

El Nino winters since 57-58 with no -AO months during JFM.

[Isotherm]

The degree of NYC warmth during an El Nino December really doesn't have much relationship 

to how strong the El Nino is. The general seasonal response to the El Nino is above normal

NYC temperatures in December. 7 years since 57 featured average temperatures in NYC

at 40 degrees or higher. 

 

7 warmest El Nino Decembers in NYC since 57 and peak ONI 

 

1957....40.2....+1.7...strong

1965....40.5....+1.8...strong

1979....41.1....+0.6...weak

1982....42.8....+2.1...very strong

1994....42.2....+1.0...weak to moderate

2006....43.6....+1.0...weak to moderate

2014....40.5....+0.6...weak

 

 

There is more of an intensity relationship if you expand the sample size to include all Nino's since 1950. Decembers of 1958, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1976, and 1977 were all colder than normal and featured a -AO.

 

Out of 12 weak Nino's since 1950, I count 6 that were normal or colder than normal, and 6 warmer than normal.

 

Out of 6 moderate Nino's since 1950, 3 were colder than normal Decembers, 3 warmer than normal.

 

Out of 5 strong Nino's since 1950, none were colder than normal.

[bluewave]

There is more of an intensity relationship if you expand the sample size to include all Nino's since 1950. Decembers of 1958, 1963, 1968, 1969, 1976, and 1977 were all colder than normal and featured a -AO.

 

Out of 12 weak Nino's since 1950, I count 6 that were normal or colder than normal, and 6 warmer than normal.

 

Out of 6 moderate Nino's since 1950, 3 were colder than normal Decembers, 3 warmer than normal.

 

Out of 5 strong Nino's since 1950, none were colder than normal.

 

It's tough to do temperature comparisons with the El Nino Decembers from 1958-1977 since they were so much

colder than anything that we have seen since 1979. Even the recent -AO Decembers weren't that cold.

 

On side note, our coldest Decembers here since 1980 have been La Ninas or neutral.

 

NYC December average temperature

 

1958...29.4

1963...31.2

1965...40.5

1968...34.3

1969...33.4

1972...38.5

1976...29.9

1977...35.7

[Isotherm]

It's tough to do temperature comparisons with the El Nino Decembers from 1958-1977 since they were so much

colder than anything that we have seen since 1979. Even the recent -AO Decembers weren't that cold.

 

On side note, our coldest Decembers here since 1980 have been La Ninas or neutral.

 

NYC December average temperature

 

1958...29.4

1963...31.2

1965...40.5

1968...34.3

1969...33.4

1972...38.5

1976...29.9

1977...35.7

 

 

I think it might be largely PDO related. The background state neutral / negative PDO years with Nino's generally produces colder winters overall. The NAO decadal cycle also varies concurrently with the PDO overall. The -PDO/-NAO cycle dominated from the mid 40s through 1978.

[SnowGoose69]

It's tough to do temperature comparisons with the El Nino Decembers from 1958-1977 since they were so much

colder than anything that we have seen since 1979. Even the recent -AO Decembers weren't that cold.

On side note, our coldest Decembers here since 1980 have been La Ninas or neutral.

NYC December average temperature

1958...29.4

1963...31.2

1965...40.5

1968...34.3

1969...33.4

1972...38.5

1976...29.9

1977...35.7

Was it December 2013 or 12 that had an AO of like -2 for the first 20 days and was +3 or something? That was just nuts. It's not that unusual to see a -NAO and be above normal sometimes but a -AO seems to almost always result in at least normal temps over a 2 week stretch.

[nzucker]

I honestly think that the NYC metro region will see at least one winter storm in December, but I think that will be confined to the last 10 days of the month.

NYC's average high is 48F on the first day of December, so it's likely that most of the snowfall occurs later in the month. Even our recent good Decembers had most of their snowfall later on.

2010: 12/26

2009: 12/19

2008: 12/19, 12/21

2002: 12/25

2000: 12/30

The only exceptions I can think of recently for significant snowstorms are 12/04/03 and 12/09/05, although the latter was mostly noteworthy in the northern suburbs where up to 8" fell. It's pretty rare to see a widespread moderate snowfall in the first week of December.

I'd rather have the bad pattern in late Nov/early Dec when it matters little and save the +PNA period for February. 2010-11 was perfect in this regard as the wintry period was 12/26-2/2 when snowpack retention is at maximum and temps at minimum.

[LongBeachSurfFreak]

NYC's average high is 48F on the first day of December, so it's likely that most of the snowfall occurs later in the month. Even our recent good Decembers had most of their snowfall later on.

2010: 12/26

2009: 12/19

2008: 12/19, 12/21

2002: 12/25

2000: 12/30

The only exceptions I can think of recently for significant snowstorms are 12/04/03 and 12/09/05, although the latter was mostly noteworthy in the northern suburbs where up to 8" fell. It's pretty rare to see a widespread moderate snowfall in the first week of December.

I'd rather have the bad pattern in late Nov/early Dec when it matters little and save the +PNA period for February. 2010-11 was perfect in this regard as the wintry period was 12/26-2/2 when snowpack retention is at maximum and temps at minimum.

Very well said. As you said December is generally a mid month on type deal for snow.

I was in MD for 03 and 05 was white rain that never accumulated at the coast. I remember it well as the line of accumulating snow set up a few miles east of the east river.

There's a chance we pull of at least a minor event overall. But it's almost a lock this month ends up av.

[dmillz25]

Hear the Euro Ens are showing improving changes D11-15. Won't hold my breath though.

[Sundog]

NYC's average high is 48F on the first day of December, so it's likely that most of the snowfall occurs later in the month. Even our recent good Decembers had most of their snowfall later on.

2010: 12/26

2009: 12/19

2008: 12/19, 12/21

2002: 12/25

2000: 12/30

The only exceptions I can think of recently for significant snowstorms are 12/04/03 and 12/09/05, although the latter was mostly noteworthy in the northern suburbs where up to 8" fell. It's pretty rare to see a widespread moderate snowfall in the first week of December.

I'd rather have the bad pattern in late Nov/early Dec when it matters little and save the +PNA period for February. 2010-11 was perfect in this regard as the wintry period was 12/26-2/2 when snowpack retention is at maximum and temps at minimum.

 

2002 had 6-8 inches of snow on December 5th. 

[UnionWeatherWx]

42/34. Maybe a chance at some frozen precip for a short time later .

[PB GFI]

Hear the Euro Ens are showing improving changes D11-15. Won't hold my breath though.

 

Don`t because it`s not true . Dec cxl through week 4  . I have always seen the cold in past years in the L/R but you are not seeing it here .

 

Take DEC for what it is and what was always suppose to be an AN month . 

[PB GFI]

The GFS says no as well. 

 

[snowman19]

Don`t because it`s not true . Dec cxl through week 4 . I have always seen the cold in past years in the L/R but you are not seeing it here .

Take DEC for what it is and what was always suppose to be an AN month .

Thanks for saying it PB cause I didn't want to. I was mystified today reading the badly misinformed posts and tweets around saying that we were going into a cold and snowy pattern come mid month. No models are showing that at all, operational or ensembles, not even close

[bluewave]

A NYC December average temperature of 40 degrees has been the cutoff between

an above or below normal snowfall December in the 2000's.

 

NYC average December snowfall 4.8" and average temperature 37.5.

 

Year.....temperature....snowfall

 

2000...31.1....13.4"

2001...44.1....T

2002...36.0....11.0"

2003...37.6....19.8"

2004...38.4......3.0"

2005...35.3......9.7"

2006...43.6......0

2007...37.0.....2.9"

2008...38.1.....6.0"

2009...35.9....12.4"

2010...32.8....20.1"

2011...43.3....0

2012...41.5....0.4"

2013...38.5....8.6"

2014...40.5....1.0"

[Sundog]

That early December 2003 snowstorm was pretty cool, especially because it wasn't really foreseen too much in advance at all.

[MJO812]

That early December 2003 snowstorm was pretty cool, especially because it wasn't really foreseen too much in advance at all.

6 inches  on the fist day with a winter storm warning and then 8 inches the next day with a blizzard warning.

[NYCSNOWMAN2020]

6 inches on the fist day with a winter storm warning and then 8 inches the next day with a blizzard warning.

fond memories. .silver lining this winter is once we get past 3 week period ..by Dec 21- xmas I think all options on the table ..