PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 That looks terribly unrealistic though. We'll be somewhere between +10 and 12 by the time December ends and January looks to start warm. Talk about a tremendous downhill climb we'd need to average near or below normal for met winter. I agree , this is why I NEVER included Dec in my J -M idea . That map includes D , as UNC says FEB would have to be - 10 and Jan -1 . Not impossible , but I would not predict that if J + 3 F - 2 M N I could buy that . We saw - 10 last Feb ( 2 in a row ) eeek . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I agree , this is why I NEVER included Dec in my J -M idea . That map includes D , as UNC says FEB would have to be - 10 and Jan -1 . Not impossible , but I would not predict that if J + 3 F - 2 M N I could buy that . We saw - 10 last Feb ( 2 in a row ) eeek . The big time departures are difficult for models to pick up on. Look at Feb 2015 and Dec 2015, I did not see any model that picked up on the intensity of the departure for either month and we're talking polar opposites. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 The big time departures are difficult for models to pick up on. Look at Feb 2015 and Dec 2015, I did not see any model that picked up on the intensity of the departure for either month and we're talking polar opposites. Forecasting a deep - departure not modeled in a super NINO would be disastrous to one credibility . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I just took a pic today. I have daffodils coming up on the side of my house.Lol. Me too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 With the temperature having reached 56° at 8 am, even if the remainder of December experienced normal temperatures, the monthly mean temperature would come out to 44.3°. That would beat the existing record of 44.1°, which was set in 2001. November and December 2015 would then hold the record for highest average temperature for each of those months. In both cases, 2015's monthly record would have beaten the previous records that were established in 2001. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 With the temperature having reached 56° at 8 am, even if the remainder of December experienced normal temperatures, the monthly mean temperature would come out to 44.3°. That would beat the existing record of 44.1°, which was set in 2001. November and December 2015 would then hold the record for highest average temperature for each of those months. In both cases, 2015's monthly record would have beaten the previous records that were established in 2001. It will be quite a shock to the body when we finally get some real cold air in January and February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I've seen a few cherry blossoms blooming and many more budding, esp since Mon morning. http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2015/12/15/record-warmth-plants-blooming/ http://gothamist.com/2015/12/15/tree_blossom_season.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It will be quite a shock to the body when we finally get some real cold air in January and February Even the coming chillier weather will feel quite cold. Normally 40s actually feel okay but not this time. Today will probably pull a +15 and it won't even faze people anymore, which is a true testament to how warm things have been. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GFSx still loves those double digits above normal temperatures for the next 8 days (including today) +10degs. So (12.1x16) + (10.0x8) = 273 surplus degrees, with a target of 211 for an all time warmest Dec., the remaining 7 days of the month would have to be 62/7=-9degs. to prevent this. If the last week of the month were to at least turn out normal we would still set new monthly record by 2degs. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 As for snow at the end of the year, none of the ensembles are cold enough at that time. Fool around with the CFS, it shows no measurable snow here till Jan. 23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 GFSx still loves those double digits above normal temperatures for the next 8 days (including today) +10degs. So (12.1x16) + (10.0x8) = 273 surplus degrees, with a target of 211 for an all time warmest Dec., the remaining 7 days of the month would have to be 62/7=-9degs. to prevent this. If the last week of the month were to at least turn out normal we would still set new monthly record by 2degs. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Park is already at 58 before 10 am. GFSx only has 57 as a high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Park is already at 58 before 10 am. GFSx only has 57 as a high. Once the rain starts temps should stop climbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 This retrograding WAR pattern looks more like something that we normally see during our strongest summer heat waves. Just goes to show how far off the charts this record December warmth is going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I have cherry blossoms blooming here in NE Queens too and also buds popping up on multiple other trees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro is pretty warm Xmass eve but is in the upper 40's for Xmass.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro is pretty warm Xmass eve but is in the upper 40's for Xmass.... It's all about timing of the front. Slow we roast fast we chill. Granted back towards normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It's all about timing of the front. Slow we roast fast we chill. Granted back towards normal. we aren't going to stay in the 70's for days in late december, even in the warmest on record. and we still have temps much above average with the 0c 850 line well to the north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Euro is pretty warm Xmass eve but is in the upper 40's for Xmass.... Looks like it is going towards the ggem and gfs. It all depends on the front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Looks like it is going towards the ggem and gfs. It all depends on the front. The euro was going to be overdone it always is too slow and amped with ridging in the east when it has any sort of trof in the southwest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Dec. probably will be the warmest on record by a lot...In 1891 the average was 42.3...The previous 30 years averaged near 33.1 making it a +9.2 over the average...1923-24 averaged 42.0...The previous 30 years averaged near 34.8 making it a +7.2 departure...Since 1985 the average is near 38.0...December must average 47.2 to tie 1891 for the greatest plus departure for December using the previous 30 year average...it might happen... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Looks like it is going towards the ggem and gfs. It all depends on the front. Its still pretty warm for Christmas eve well into the 60's Verbatim the high for xmass would probably come at midnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Massive area of heavy rain over Northern Jersey. Up to about .75" so far and it's absolutely down pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Dec. probably will be the warmest on record by a lot...In 1891 the average was 42.3...The previous 30 years averaged near 33.1 making it a +9.2 over the average...1923-24 averaged 42.0...The previous 30 years averaged near 34.8 making it a +7.2 departure...Since 1985 the average is near 38.0...December must average 47.2 to tie 1891 for the greatest plus departure for December using the previous 30 year average...it might happen... The GEFS mean has NYC holding around +12 for December. So this would allow NYC to beat December 2001 by about 5 degrees. The GEFS has December finishing around 49.5 vs the previous record 2001 of 44.1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 0.88" in the park so far. Still a lot to come. This was underdone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Just crested an inch here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The GEFS mean has NYC holding around +12 for December. So this would allow NYC to beat December 2001 by about 5 degrees. The GEFS has December finishing around 49.5 vs the previous record 2001 of 44.1. I would think if we finish +5 over the record that's the largest amount a new record has ever topped an old for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I would think if we finish +5 over the record that's the largest amount a new record has ever topped an old for the month Yeah, this is on track to be a very extreme record warmth event. Most of warmest months on record are only a few tenths to a degree warmer than the previous record. http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 The rain should rapidly end from West to East over the next hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Over a inch of rain here today, a little bit more then forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Central park been sitting at 59. Might as well get another 60 degree high in. Most for Dec is 8 days. Currently 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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