FPizz Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 12z euro is pushing 75 for Xmass day in NYC This is how xmas in the south must feel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 I bought a new XMAS tree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 This is how xmas in the south must feel Maybe south Florida. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 I bought a new XMAS tree. There seems to be a developing shortage of this new and unexpectedly popular Christmas tree. It will be interesting to see shortly whether the EC Ensembles support the operational run P.S. The operational model and ensembles are in very strong agreement at 240 hours. This will represent a nice "battle" between the colder GFS camp and warmer ECMWF camp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 44.1°, 2001 43.8°, 1984 43.6°, 2006 43.3°, 2011 43.2°, 1998 42.8°, 1982 42.6°, 1990 42.3°, 1891 42.2°, 1994 42.0°, 1923 thank you. our odds are not good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 16, 2015 Author Share Posted December 16, 2015 There seems to be a developing shortage of this new and unexpectedly popular Christmas tree. It will be interesting to see shortly whether the EC Ensembles support the operational run P.S. The operational model and ensembles are in very strong agreement at 240 hours. This will represent a nice "battle" between the colder GFS camp and warmer ECMWF camp. Don , the trough is digging so deep into the SW the ridge has no choice but to explode in the E . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Don , the trough is digging so deep into the SW the ridge has no choice but to explode in the E . I agree. It's an amazing 500 mb look (though I'd personally prefer if the ridge and trough positions were swapped). Just so there's no confusion, my comment about the "warmer" ECMWF operational/ensemble suite concerns the 12/25-26 period, only. The forecast is similar to what the GFS/GFS ensembles had been showing through the 12/16 0z run. 9-10 days out is still a lot of time for some changes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 thank you. our odds are not good Right now if every day starting tomorrow had normal temperatures, December 2015 would finish with a mean temperature of 43.7°. At this stage, it looks like the question is not whether December 2015 will be the warmest on record, but by how much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Could Saturday be the coldest temps we see for the next few weeks? And if that massive ridge unfolds with ridiculous temps then we will see mass blooming and budding into January despite the lack of sun/low sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 thank you. our odds are not good Odds seem pretty good? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 ECM most aggressive with EC ridging, but either way Dec 23 - 26 looks much AN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Since we're dealing with absurd numbers (absurd warmth, not the data you've posted), the GEFS idea would be the equivalent of the 8th warmest November on record for Central Park. It's pretty wild that a December monthly mean in that range is normal for Myrtle Beach, South Carolina. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/marka/normals/50states_normals.2010.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Could Saturday be the coldest temps we see for the next few weeks? And if that massive ridge unfolds with ridiculous temps then we will see mass blooming and budding into January despite the lack of sun/low sun angle. Most trees still go off of length of day vs temps so i wouldn't expect much to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What does 18z goofus have to say about Christmas Eve/Day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 What does goofus have to say about Christmas Eve/Day? Rainy and mild though not as torchy as it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 It appears that the GFS ensembles, ECMWF ensembles, and ECMWF are in good agreement at 500 mb for 12/25. The operational GFS is alone in showing an area of below normal height anomalies covering the Northeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Most trees still go off of length of day vs temps so i wouldn't expect much to happen Definitely truth to this. Perennials often go by soil temps so I would expect to start seeing early season flowers like daffodils. Also some fruit trees can and will flower. The big deciduous forest trees are doing the plant equivocate of hibernating and aren't waking up because it's warm in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 I just took a pic today. I have daffodils coming up on the side of my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 Pitchers and catchers in about 45 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Pitchers and catchers in about 45 days. will winter say hello when it's time to say goodbye?...the lack of cold air in the east is scary...even in 2006 there was a brief arctic shot early in the month...It's February or bust... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 will winter say hello when it's time to say goodbye?...the lack of cold air in the east is scary...even in 2006 there was a brief arctic shot early in the month...It's February or bust...You definitely want to see the Pacific start to reshuffle in early Jan .There is a lag so an early Jan shuffle means you feel the effects mid month A mid month shuffle means late Jan , so on and so forth . Is it even guaranteed to change ? No , but I think it does. I am all in by mid Jan. 57 and 65 turned. 97 flipped too. To warm , funny no one talks about that. I have seen extreme flips 89 comes to mind. I am not worried . If we circle back in mid Jan and the ensembles have red paint all over them then I will say uncle ..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Wet ride home. Showers moved in off the ocean Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Could Saturday be the coldest temps we see for the next few weeks? And if that massive ridge unfolds with ridiculous temps then we will see mass blooming and budding into January despite the lack of sun/low sun angle. Not so sure of that at least in the burbs, this weekend will feature low temps in the mid 20's which should keep things in dormancy not to mention the minimum daylight (which plants respond to as well) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 You definitely want to see the Pacific start to reshuffle in early Jan . There is a lag so an early Jan shuffle means you feel the effects mid month A mid month shuffle means late Jan , so on and so forth . Is it even guaranteed to change ? No , but I think it does. I am all in by mid Jan. 57 and 65 turned. 97 flipped too. To warm , funny no one talks about that. I have seen extreme flips 89 comes to mind. I am not worried . If we circle back in mid Jan and the ensembles have red paint all over them then I will say uncle ..... New JAMSTEC Coldest run on the JAMSTEC yet , Courtesy of Stadium Wave. Unc for this to verify the second half of Jan and Feb would have to flip like 89 did but the other way . I think this is wrong , I don`t think the 3 month anomalies look like this come March 1 This model nailed the last 2 winters , I don`t see this ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 Not so sure of that at least in the burbs, this weekend will feature low temps in the mid 20's which should keep things in dormancy not to mention the minimum daylight (which plants respond to as well) Then maybe the early spring stuff at least. We'll have to see how the next few weeks unfold. Now if this continues a month from now then maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New JAMSTEC Coldest run on the JAMSTEC yet , Courtesy of Stadium Wave. Unc for this to verify the second half of Jan and Feb would have to flip like 89 did but the other way . I think this is wrong , I don`t think the 3 month anomalies look like this come March 1 This model nailed the last 2 winters , I don`t see this ... what a sea of warmth globally though...wow. No blue anywhere except the USA-amazing last 3 years in that regard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 17, 2015 Author Share Posted December 17, 2015 what a sea of warmth globally though...wow. No blue anywhere except the USA-amazing last 3 years in that regard En Fuego . - EPO forced the cold air into our little enclave . Just lucky I guess . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 En Fuego . - EPO forced the cold air into our little enclave . Just lucky I guess . I'll say-Look at Russia on that map...or Canada...wow at the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 New JAMSTEC Coldest run on the JAMSTEC yet , Courtesy of Stadium Wave. Unc for this to verify the second half of Jan and Feb would have to flip like 89 did but the other way . I think this is wrong , I don`t think the 3 month anomalies look like this come March 1 This model nailed the last 2 winters , I don`t see this ... if February 2016 is ten degrees warmer than 2015 it still will be cold enough...Will it be wet enough?...1997-98 had a negative ao for most of the winter but it wasn't as strong negative the second half...winters with a late season -ao usually end well...TWT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 17, 2015 Share Posted December 17, 2015 En Fuego . - EPO forced the cold air into our little enclave . Just lucky I guess . That looks terribly unrealistic though. We'll be somewhere between +10 and 12 by the time December ends and January looks to start warm. Talk about a tremendous downhill climb we'd need to average near or below normal for met winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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