Damage In Tolland Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 If the polar vortex remains strong or rebuilds each time it is weakened and the Aleutian low does not retrograde, that will be a very disturbing situation. So far, no meaningful stratospheric warming events appear likely through at least the next 10 days. We're slowly seeing the folks that called for pattern change to begin in early Jan..now pushing it back to mid Jan.. Setting it up in such a way that only the astute observer would notice. You hope they are correct..but given how stable the pattern is globally that is very much up in the air. Everything is completely locked into place..there doesn't appear to be any SSW, and the ridge north of us has been there since late April. if these big flips in Jan are to happen we'd better start seeing it on the modeling in the coming 15 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Lol at the 11/12 comparison . The calls for the pattern change were failing in early and mid Jan in 2012 . You are in a warm December pattern , that is all and should shock no one. There has been zero calls here for a pattern change this December by any serious person on this board , to the contrary a warm December was called for NYC back in July and most expect this NOT to change through early Jan . Let me say this again there is no pattern change in our immediate future . So this is becoming a dumber argument every time it is used. Some of us believe you will start to see this pattern evolve around mid Jan . So there's your forecast , so please come back in mid Jan with that crap Better not hope it starts to evolve in mid January, it may not fully change until 2/15 at that rate.... Maybe I'm being antsy, but I'd like to see meaningful changes by 1/1-5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This pattern has and continues to be extremely stable. It's not going to just collapse in a few days and there aren't any signs of any changes for the foreseeable future. If anything the eastern ridge is only going to grower stronger and more expansive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This pattern has and continues to be extremely stable. It's not going to just collapse in a few days and there aren't any signs of any changes for the foreseeable future. If anything the eastern ridge is only going to grower stronger and more expansive. There is always the chance it just locks in and any change ends up being weak sauce that ridge is unreal though going back to April....we just don't know at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Better not hope it starts to evolve in mid January, it may not fully change until 2/15 at that rate.... Maybe I'm being antsy, but I'd like to see meaningful changes by 1/1-5 Jan 1. No shot. Jan 10 thru 15 is where you should start to see some differences at 500 . You are probably AN to this extent through the 5th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 We're slowly seeing the folks that called for pattern change to begin in early Jan..now pushing it back to mid Jan.. Setting it up in such a way that only the astute observer would notice. You hope they are correct..but given how stable the pattern is globally that is very much up in the air. Everything is completely locked into place..there doesn't appear to be any SSW, and the ridge north of us has been there since late April. if these big flips in Jan are to happen we'd better start seeing it on the modeling in the coming 15 days. I thought this winter would be a modified version of what happened in 1965-66 but with shorter-duration and less severe blocking, so we'll see what happens. I recognize that a worse outcome can't be ruled out, but I'm not yet ready to concede such an outcome. Of course, I could be wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I thought this winter would be a modified version of what happened in 1965-66 but with shorter-duration and less severe blocking, so we'll see what happens. I recognize that a worse outcome can't be ruled out, but I'm not yet ready to concede such an outcome. Of course, I could be wrong. Agree...time will tell...in such duds as 01-02, 05-06, 11-12 the pattern change never came despite calls for a colder and snowier regime. In others, 93-94, 06-07, 12-13, 14-15 it came and with a vengeance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 December Warm or White ? Warm. Thought we were boys . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Is that massive convective streak extending from the gulf on the gfs legit. There's a lot of severe weather embedded in there if correct. The 18z gfs is trying to push upper 70s/80 on us on Xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Thread title should be changed to December, torch or severe torch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Thread title should be changed to December, torch or severe torch Nah, the post says AN as the higher heights cut off any cold air . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Thought we were boys . Just answering the question... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The 11-12 comparisons are no good as are 01-02. Those years there was no cold air anywhere to be found in the US in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 what are nyc's ten warmest decembers? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Thread title should be changed to December, torch or severe torch Title changed as per your request. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Title changed as per your request.Brian#s isn't the king, I didn't vote for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm93 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z GEFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 There is always the chance it just locks in and any change ends up being weak sauce that ridge is unreal though going back to April....we just don't know at this point. I think this is a valid concern. NOT saying it happens, just a concern. I mean, there has been some research about an increasingly warm background state causing more persistent weather patterns hasn't there? Just like we had the unreal -EPO stretch in recent years. I don't see why we couldn't see the opposite at some point. Again, not saying this is that point just a thought. I still think we turn it around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z GEFS Vomit. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Thread title should be changed to December, torch or severe torch How about warmest December on record or warmest month on record of any month. (Anomalie) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cygnus X-1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 The last two winters on Long Island were brutal; I'll take this, so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 18z GEFS That's kissing 70 on an ensemble mean, that's nuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 what are nyc's ten warmest decembers? 44.1°, 2001 43.8°, 1984 43.6°, 2006 43.3°, 2011 43.2°, 1998 42.8°, 1982 42.6°, 1990 42.3°, 1891 42.2°, 1994 42.0°, 1923 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Didn't Dec 2001 level off 2nd half compared to first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Didn't Dec 2001 level off 2nd half compared to first. Yeah it was relatively stale cold air though because there was a massive GOA low if I remember right. The NAO went very negative which caused it to be somewhat cold but considering the pattern it wasn't that chilly. Buffalo had that insane lake effect event during it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 44.1°, 2001.....39.9.....40.6.....44.1 43.8°, 1984.....28.8.....36.6.....45.8 43.6°, 2006.....37.5.....28.2.....42.2 43.3°, 2011.....37.3.....40.9.....50.9 43.2°, 1998.....33.9.....38.9.....42.5 42.8°, 1982.....34.5.....36.4.....44.0 42.6°, 1990.....34.9.....40.0.....44.6 42.3°, 1891.....31.5.....33.4.....34.2 42.2°, 1994.....37.5.....31.6.....45.0 42.0°, 1923.....32.7.....28.9.....39.2 I added Jan/Feb/Mar average temp...blue is cold...red is warm...black is near average... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Yeah it was relatively stale cold air though because there was a massive GOA low if I remember right. The NAO went very negative which caused it to be somewhat cold but considering the pattern it wasn't that chilly. Buffalo had that insane lake effect event during it Looking back that's how you knew we were screwed...got the trough and the -NAO and it was average temps at best. Just no cold air anywhere on our side of the globe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 It's a chilly 54 in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 53 at midnight in the park. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 16, 2015 Share Posted December 16, 2015 Gfs has Christmas day in the 50s now after torching us the day before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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