bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The pattern will remain the same as long as that ridge north of Hawaii..Western trough..NE ridge stays put. It's been a very persistent pattern since May producing the record warmth here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Park broke today's record. Hit 68. 68 is the average low temp for mid July. So last night pretty much was a typical mid summer's night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 I agree Chris I think day 1 -10 in Jan are still AN, and it will skew the month to finish AN but I expect this to begin to step down between the 10 and 15 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I agree Chris I think day 1 -10 in Jan are still AN, and it will skew the month to finish AN but I expect this to begin to step down between the 10 and 15 . Yeah, we'll have a better idea once we see what the models are showing by late December into January. It's very challenging trying to time a change in a pattern that has been so persistent since May. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 many a late starting winter had late season snowfalls...1923-24 and 1965-66 come to mind...I still think it won't be a shut out but the first part could be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 many a late starting winter had late season snowfalls...1923-24 and 1965-66 come to mind...I still think it won't be a shut out but the first part could be... Here's the El Nino stats that you posted from the other thread with the early near shut outs bolded. Jan 15th...After...total 1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7" 1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4" 1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2" 1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6" 1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8" 1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5" 1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7" 1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8" 1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2" 1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1" 1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1" 1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6" 1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8" 1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5" 2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3" 2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0" 2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4" 2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4" 2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Hell of a squall line overnight, wow. Woke me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 60's return monday on both the gfs and euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 If LGA can avoid a freeze Sunday morning it will likely set a new record for the latest first freeze, the current record is 12/23 (2001). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 70s on the gfs Xmas eve. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 60's return monday on both the gfs and euro GFS has 60s to near 70 on Xmas eve and Xmas for like the 10th run in a row. NE basically on fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 24C above normal is almost +40F...that would be a daily of like 80/68, unthinkable for XMAS but possible this year. GFS is probably a bit too aggressive on the torch, but it has consistently shown this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 NYC has a shot at beating it's warmest December 20-31 temperature if we can max out the potential. 12/20 60 in 2002 12/21 65 in 2013 12/22 71 in 2013 12/23 66 in 1990 12/24 63 in 1996 12/25 64 in 1982 12/26 63 in 1982 12/27 63 in 1949 12/28 65 in 2008 12/29 70 in 1984 12/30 65 in 1984 12/31 63 in 1965 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 24C above normal is almost +40F...that would be a daily of like 80/68, unthinkable for XMAS but possible this year. GFS is probably a bit too aggressive on the torch, but it has consistently shown this. Perhaps NYC will see only its second ever low temperature at or above 60° during meteorological winter. The first occasion was 12/22/2013 when the minimum temperature was 61°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Good good that's easily 70+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 24C above normal is almost +40F...that would be a daily of like 80/68, unthinkable for XMAS but possible this year. GFS is probably a bit too aggressive on the torch, but it has consistently shown this. It keeps increasing it which is just insane. Today also marks the 6th day in row with a high of 60 or greater and also the first time I believe that NYC did not drop below freezing in the first half of December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 That's a 9-10 day forecast so there's plenty of room for error but all models have been aiming at another very warm period that week. I do think mid 60s are probably a lock but there's a good chance it'll be even higher than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It keeps increasing it which is just insane. Today also marks the 6th day in row with a high of 60 or greater and also the first time I believe that NYC did not drop below freezing in the first half of December. In 2001 Dec 16 was the first 32 low. And in 1998 we went till Dec. 22, for the first 32, I believe. We got our first 32 in Nov,, despite it being the warmest Nov. ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 That's a 9-10 day forecast so there's plenty of room for error but all models have been aiming at another very warm period that week. I do think mid 60s are probably a lock but there's a good chance it'll be even higher than that. Yeah, definitely think a warm period is on the way once again. Wouldn't surprise me if 70's popped up as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 In 2001 Dec 16 was the first 32 low. And in 1998 we went till Dec. 22, for the first 32, I believe. We got our first 32 in Nov,, despite it being the warmest Nov. ever. I forgot 98 took so long. Of course it did eventually get cold that month and we had snow on christmas eve. This month just looks relentless. Unless NYC gets below this weekend they may not have another shot til Jan. I was in Chicago in 98-99 and I remember the warmth in Nov/Dec and then the drastic shift to frigid cold right before christmas followed by the new years blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This month is likely to blow away the Dec 2001 warmest month but some 4+ degrees if models are correct. Whatever departure slips that'll occur this weekend will be made up and added onto quickly last 8-9 days of month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I just put the CFS through it paces and I did not see any untoward cold till mid-Feb.! Rather than worrying about the latest initial 32, I hope UncleW reminds us of the records for fewest days with lows of 32 and under and highs of 32 or less. This is going to come in handy, the way it looks at this juncture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This month is likely to blow away the Dec 2001 warmest month but some 4+ degrees if models are correct. Whatever departure slips that'll occur this weekend will be made up and added onto quickly last 8-9 days of month. NYC has a shot at the first calendar year with a -10 or lower and +10 or higher month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 May need the AC next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This month is likely to blow away the Dec 2001 warmest month but some 4+ degrees if models are correct. Whatever departure slips that'll occur this weekend will be made up and added onto quickly last 8-9 days of month. We are only going back down to normal this weekend. So it will not hurt our departures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 We are only going back down to normal this weekend. So it will not hurt our departures The GEFS mean has NYC at +13.5 over the next two weeks on top of the current +11.3 trough the 14th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The GEFS mean has NYC at +13.5 over the next two weeks on top of the current +11.3 trough the 14th. This is when you kinda have to say the climate really is changing. If we finish over +12 that's a one in a couple hundred year events (during a normal steady state climate) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I believe there will be talk of changing the 30 year normal (updated every 5 years) to a 20 year normal (updated every other year) because we are obviously chasing a moving target. It makes no sense to keep hearing mostly above normal or below normal a majority of the time for any given parameter.. Remember from statistics, if the mean changes by a small amount, the extremes change by probably five times as much over the 30 year span. So a .10 change in the 30 year mean, could result in a .50deg. rise in the all time highs over that time, and corresponding increase in the lowest temps A one degree mean value increase would mean everything might shift upwards by a full 5 degrees. So our new range in NYC could be +3 to 109, looking at a recent 30 year period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Gotta love those post cold-front 60+ temps in MID DECEMBER. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rittenhouse Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 GFS has 60s to near 70 on Xmas eve and Xmas for like the 10th run in a row. NE basically on fire. on fire.PNG At 234hr of that run Central NJ is the same temperature as Ft Myers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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