SACRUS Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 JFK also broke the record high. One degree away from matching the record high of the 15th at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 64 here. Where the fck is winter!? Tell me about it man. Looks like another squall line coming through as well out West. Unbelievable weather for December. It's 63° at midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is insane. I don't think I've ever seen December with this much sustained warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This is insane. I don't think I've ever seen December with this much sustained warmth. You don't need to think. It's the damn statistics. Insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 It feels like a mid Summer's night. 66F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 What will it take for our record smashing December to end warmer than the record breaking November? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 What will it take for our record smashing December to end warmer than the record breaking November? 52.8 which would be +15.3. Safe to say thats not happening but we could end up at 50 which is insane enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 52.8 which would be +15.3. Safe to say thats not happening but we could end up at 50 which is insane enough It needs just another small push.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Where do we rank in terms of mean temperature this month vs the average Oct and Nov monthly mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Some strong gusts now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Pouring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Park broke today's record. Hit 68. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Hearing reports of blown transformers on the scanner in Jersey City. Those were some strong gusts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 I'm hearing snapping sounds. Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 The quick squall line had what sounded like the heaviest rain I ever heard. Me and my family woke up from it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 upton's forecast lows for tonight are going to bust badly Big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 the models show a surge of warmth tonight as the warm front passes. we might break records after dark Nailed it. And even much later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MegaMike Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 KEWR 150700Z 29027G34KT 7SM -RA FEW010 SCT018 BKN030 18/16 A2940 RMK AO2 PK WND 29034/0659 WSHFT 0642 P0004 $ Looks like the front made it through Newark International Airport not too long ago with winds gusting to 40 mph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 NYC now up to +11.3 on the month. This may have been the first 3 +20 0r greater December days in a row since 1982. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 FWIW...the lasest Euro weeklies keep the persistent Western trough and Eastern ridge pattern locked in through January 15th. CFS torches Jan so that sounds about right. Nature is going to be so out of sync. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 There's the ugliness of 72/73 and 97/98 staring at us. Also we're going to break nearly every warm temperature record this month outside of highest all time December temperature. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Yeah. This winter is bringing out some good stuff. CFS torches Jan so that sounds about right. Nature is going to be so out of sync. Week 4 Euro weeklies , Totally different look at 500 from Jan 10 to Jan 15 . You erased all those low heights in AL The EPO goes NEG after the 1st . The PNA goes POS after the 1st .[/b] The pattern change will be felt by mid month . The timeline of seeing this pattern begin to change between Jan 10 - 15 looks spot on . 850 anomalies are plus 2 and cool to N during this time and for mid JAN this is N . The torch in mid Jan will be OVER according to the Euro weeklies . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 +28 departure on the minimum in the city in the morning. Will be reduced later. +25 maximum is set in stone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Any week 4 forecast is a crap shoot and didn't they fail miserably for the 2nd half of December. I don't think Jan will be the torch this month is because that's nearly impossible however I'm going with another top 5-10 month. Good chance any significant changes are delayed last week of Jan and into Feb, which would be too late to save next month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 Any week 4 forecast is a crap shoot and didn't they fail miserably for the 2nd half of December. I don't think Jan will be the torch this month is because that's nearly impossible however I'm going with another top 5-10 month. Good chance any significant changes are delayed last week of Jan and into Feb, which would be too late to save next month. Last weeks week 4 look spot on for week 3 now . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 This will go down as one of the biggest monthly misses that you'll see from the EPS weeklies. Notice how it had the Aleutian Low west near the Aleutians for December on Nov 23rd and it's pushing into Western North America instead. Fox 12 freebie 500za_week2_bg_na1.png 500za_week3_bg_na2.png 500za_week4_bg_na1.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 15, 2015 Author Share Posted December 15, 2015 There is nothing different in the forecast . Of course a week 4 forecast is a crap shoot , it could actually end up COLDER too right ? EC are EC ..... However I am content to see a move towards N . The fact is if it is right and you erase the low heights in AL and turn the PNA POS and the EPO NEG , you change the Pacific . That would be step 1 . That is what you should be looking for . Jan 10 -15 has been opined here as to start to see the NOV/DEC pattern breakdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 GFSx is at +11 for the next 8 days (including today), same as the first 14 days of month. This contains our coldest days of the month. (11.3x14) + (8x11) = 246deg. surplus---and with a target of 211, to set all time Dec. record, the last 9 day of month would have to average -4degs.to prevent this. Good Luck. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redbanknjandbigbasslakepa Posted December 15, 2015 Share Posted December 15, 2015 Last night was first shot against the bow in the pattern. Another comes this weekend, it builds again into next week but gets beat down by right after Christmas. This is anything but an el nino like pattern. This is a powerful SE and WAR ridge that needs to get hammered away at and will be. By the last few days of the month we'll be tracking winter storm potential in NE. January may be variable and start to see a more nino like wet southern pattern break through once the massive heat ridge breaks down. These types of ridges finally get destroyed as their own heat transport poleward snaps the rubber band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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