Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The glimmer of hope I mentioned for the weeks 4-5 on the CFS weeklies yesterday was obliterated by today. This pattern seems to be hardening its stance, or these analogs are just unable to pickup on stratospheric changes that might help us eventually. sometimes these warm patterns just lock in and are difficult to disrupt. Hope we see the changes come January, but it's anyone's guess at this point, this nino is crazy as noted above with things acting like a Nina in spots etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The glimmer of hope I mentioned for the weeks 4-5 on the CFS weeklies yesterday was obliterated by today. This pattern seems to be hardening its stance, or these analogs are just unable to pickup on stratospheric changes that might help us eventually. Could this be the first snowless winter? The earliest start to the growing season? It would certainly appear that way into early Jan. Excellent model agreement weeks in advance. Tonight's rain should help with vegetation and early blooming for Xmas week when we hit the 60s and 70s again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Could this be the first snowless winter? The earliest start to the growing season? It would certainly appear that way into early Jan. Excellent model agreement weeks in advance. Tonight's rain should help with vegetation and early blooming for Xmas week when we hit the 60s and 70s again. Even in the disasters that were 01-02 and 11-12 we got a 10 day stretch of winter that dropped 2-4 inches of snow. 97-98 also saw a late March slop storm. Very tough to go snowless in NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 this is ridiculous for an ensemble mean at day 10. nearly summertime heights Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 Your winter differences at 500 MB EURO - J- M CFS J - M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 what did the dec forecast look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 14, 2015 Author Share Posted December 14, 2015 what did the dec forecast look like? Plus 1 2c at 2m CFS was plus 3 c Ridging was over/ east of HB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 this is ridiculous for an ensemble mean at day 10. nearly summertime heights Those 500 mb heights are very close to the record for late December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Got very heavy fog this morning, with visibilities of maybe 40-50 yards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Even in the disasters that were 01-02 and 11-12 we got a 10 day stretch of winter that dropped 2-4 inches of snow. 97-98 also saw a late March slop storm. Very tough to go snowless in NYC And I don't think it will although thoughts might change in a few weeks. This persistent, extreme pattern has been locked in for months. At least the west can cash in after several years of ugliness while we plant tomatoes on New Years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 And I don't think it will although thoughts might change in a few weeks. This persistent, extreme pattern has been locked in for months. At least the west can cash in after several years of ugliness while we plant tomatoes on New Years. I head to Breckenridge for a week every January-expecting epic conditions out there this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I believe that was March 13, 1990, +38 on the high of 85 versus 47 normal. I remember that day and the high was supposed to be low 70's. Couldn't believe how hot it was when I came out of school Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 And I don't think it will although thoughts might change in a few weeks. This persistent, extreme pattern has been locked in for months. At least the west can cash in after several years of ugliness while we plant tomatoes on New Years. I would be much more worried if this was a neutral ENSO or La Niña about this pattern persisting but in an El Niño this strong and not being very east based there is virtually zero chance that the Aleutian low won't retrograde and we won't eventually see the western ridge/eastern trof pattern develops even if it isn't til January 28th or something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 I remember that day and the high was supposed to be low 70's. Couldn't believe how hot it was when I came out of school With no foliage out, March and April heat tends to overperform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 ^^^ Yes but didn't you say it was unlikely the record warmth from November would continue through December. And there's evidence that this isn't your typical Nino either. These are uncharted waters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 To put the current December into perspective, the following includes data through 2/14 11 am: Monthly Mean Temperature: 51.0° Monthly anomaly: +10.9° Highs of 50° or Above: 13 days (Record: 19, 1891) Highs of 60° or Above: 4 days (Record: 8, 1998) Lows: 40° or Above: 13 days (Record: 14, 1982) Lows: 50° or Above: 5 days (Record: 5, 1982, 1998) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Euro is showing the MJO going into phase 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 cool, more warmth! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 cool, more warmth! Moving along which is great. We all know you want a warm winter forky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 cool, more warmth! Yeah phase 7 sucks in December I think anyway but it's worse in El Niño years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Moving along which is great. We all know you want a warm winter forky.yeah, things are looking great in two weeks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 This will go down as one of the biggest monthly misses that you'll see from the EPS weeklies. Notice how it had the Aleutian Low west near the Aleutians for December on Nov 23rd and it's pushing into Western North America instead. Fox 12 freebie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You have to love all that east vs central based Nino talk all these months when that may not make a difference in the end. Also 12z gfs continues with Xmas week inferno and it should rival or exceed the past week's warmth. NYC will likely see a +30 or better daily departure that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The intraseasonal MJO forcing has played havoc with long term modelling. The coherent/amplified MJO pulses in November aided in inducing the more Nina-like state of Aleutian high, while this month, we're seeing a combination of interseasonal El Nino forcing (with clear imprints on the tropospheric pattern) as well as the 4-5-6 MJO pulse. This month overall has been very characteristic of a strong El Nino, however. November was more Nina-like in terms of the tropical drivers which has promoted the 2 month blowtorch. Nothing really too surprising so far this winter. The -PNA/western trough is common in the early part of a potent Nino. Recall December 1982 finished with widespread > +6's across the Northeast, and Dec 65/57 were very warm, among others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Euro is showing the MJO going into phase 7 Sigh. Ugh. There is no MJO dude, that's not an MJO wave. It's an El Niño induced standing wave in OLR. The El Niño standing wave is completely dominating everything and will continue to do so. RMM is just showing the OLR projection as an MJO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Park up to 60. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Sigh. Ugh. There is no MJO dude, that's not an MJO wave. It's an El Niño induced standing wave in OLR. The El Niño standing wave is completely dominating everything and will continue to do so. RMM is just showing the OLR projection as an MJO That's debatable, and I tend to disagree. There's noticeable strong convection and upper divergence propagating through the E IO/W PAC right now. It might be a kelvin wave. But the MJO itself is really an aggregate of larger kelvin waves, arguably. It's definitely not El Nino induced forcing, as the mean interseasonal forcing cell connected to ENSO is much further east. I'd argue that it is a real MJO wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 You have to love all that east vs central based Nino talk all these months when that may not make a difference in the end. Also 12z gfs continues with Xmas week inferno and it should rival or exceed the past week's warmth. NYC will likely see a +30 or better daily departure that week. goofus more than 10 days out is so reliable but I do think NYC south will have an awful winter any change will be for the interior, The sooner this horrible month is over the better! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Meanwhile just another typical mid 60s December day and the sun came out. Maybe we'll get close to 70 again. Just laughable how common this is becoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 warmest days compared to normal...using noaa's est. max these are the greatest departures from the daily normal for each month... Jan...+34...1/6/2007...1/26/1950... Feb...+33...2/15/1949... Mar...+36...3/13/1990... Apr...+35...4/7/2010...4/18/1976...4/17/2002... May...+27...5/19/1962... June..+23...6/4-5/1925... July...+22...7/9/1936... Aug...+22...8/26/1948... Sept..+25...9/23/1895 Oct...+27...10/5/1941...10/17/1938...10/22/1979... Nov...+27...11/15/1993... Dec...+30...12/7/1998...12/29/1984...12/22/2013... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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