December warm NOT White

[dmillz25]

From Coastalwx

Perhaps this is a weenie thought because it's a reference to the GFS op, but it is something I have noticed lately. There seems to be some runs showing east based -NAO ridging and ridging near the Bering Sea. If that did happen...it would help keep at least eastern Canada cooler with that vortex hanging around. I suppose it isn't outlandish to think a high nosing down can help deliver just enough cold should timing work out. Even the EC ensembles are showing neutral height anomalies near the arctic which implies some members may not have a black hole there. Anyways, not trying to imply anything..just food for thought I guess.

[nzucker]

I remember reading about that month. There were a series of moderate to heavy snowstorms in the Tri State Area. Especially N&W of the city. Right?

March had the big north+west events. The main March 58 storm dropped close to 18" in Westchester, and I believe some parts of PA had like 40". There was another 6-10" snowfall in Mar 58, but it was overshadowed by the bigger snowfalls that winter.

[snowman19]

57-58 was the 3rd snowiest winter in Dobbs Ferry recorded history, behind 60-61 and 95-96. Despite the warm December, the 57-58 winter featured 80" of snowfall here, with a moderate 8" storm in December. February had a major -NAO block with a 16" snowfall and below average temperatures, and March had twin snowfalls around the equinox, one totalling 18". The strong, west based -NAO block over Southern Greenland offset a mainly hostile Pacific Nino pattern that featured a strong GOA low. There wasn't much extreme cold in 57-58, as none of the area got below 0F, but it was cold enough for massive late-season snows.

I see this season as potentially a blend between 57-58, 65-66, 82-83, and 86-87. The cold west early is also reminiscent of December 1972, though I doubt the East gets that little snow, as this Nino is more west based.

That winter had nothing to do with where the El Niño was "based". That winter was -PDO driven in combination with a very strong Nino. 72-73 was during the long term strong -PDO era of the late 1940's to late 1970's

[nzucker]

That winter had nothing to do with where the El Niño was "based". That winter was -PDO driven in combination with a very strong Nino. 72-73 was during the long term strong -PDO era of the late 1940's to late 1970's

There was also some bad luck in 72-73. December was reasonably cold, but not much snow. There were a couple mix events, I believe, especially up here in Westchester. February had a major snowstorm in the Southeast that just misses the DC-NYC corridor.

[jdrenken]

Since this was from a Twitter account in the Northeast...am I missing something here?

 

[MJO812]

Since this was from a Twitter account in the Northeast...am I missing something here?

I guess the PNA is the only thing that matters

[jdrenken]

Cracks me up! There are a ton of these that follow_neweather's lead! lol

Sent from my S50 using Tapatalk

[IntenseBlizzard2014]

Looks like mild weather until mid December.

Sent from my ASUS_Z00AD using Tapatalk

[bluewave]

The above normal temperature pattern which developed last April is set to continue right into December.

 

 

 

[SnoSki14]

Off the charts type of warming, I wouldn't be surprised to see a +7 or better departure next month.

 

Glanced at the 06z gfs and my goodness you have to go to central Canada to find below freezing temps. The model is pumping out numerous days of 15-20 degree departures.

 

I knew December was supposed to be ugly, but I've never seen such a non-winter look; it's quite fascinating. I think warmest December on record is a lock if models verify.

 

Also it remains to be seen if November tops out at number one for NYC. We'll have to see how today and tomorrow play out.

[snowman19]

I guess the PNA is the only thing that matters

It's some kiddie playing make believe meteorologist on twitter

[MJO812]

It's some kiddie playing make believe meteorologist on twitter

A lot of that on social media

[Morris]

A lot of that on americanwx

 

FTFY

[PB GFI]

The above normal temperature pattern which developed last April is set to continue right into December.

 

tn72503_1yr.gif

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20151126.201512.gif

That looks pretty good to me. Plus 2 at KNYC which looks in line.

[bluewave]

That looks pretty good to me. Plus 2 at KNYC which looks in line.

 

I think that NYC joins the the November 50+ December 40+ club from what the long range guidance is showing.

[uncle W]

I think that NYC joins the the November 50+ December 40+ club from what the long range guidance is showing.

this could be the warmest Nov/Dec combo in recorded history...

[uncle W]

It should end up somewhere on the list of the warmest November and Decembers if the forecasts verify.

 

Here is the November 50+ December 40+ list with the El Nino years bolded:

 

.............Nov....Dec

2015....53.4....so far

2011....51.9....43.3

2006....51.9....43.6

2001....52.7....44.1

1999....50.6....40.0

1994....52.0....42.2

1990....50.4....42.6

1982....50.4....42.8

1979....52.5....41.1

1931....51.9....41.0

1982-83 is the best winter on the list...that aint saying much...

[PB GFI]

It should end up somewhere on the list of the warmest November and Decembers if the forecasts verify.

 

Here is the November 50+ December 40+ list with the El Nino years bolded:

 

.............Nov....Dec

2015....53.4....so far

2011....51.9....43.3

2006....51.9....43.6

2001....52.7....44.1

1999....50.6....40.0

1994....52.0....42.2

1990....50.4....42.6

1982....50.4....42.8

1979....52.5....41.1

1931....51.9....41.0

Yeh a plus 3 or 4 wouldn't shock me. The first half looks warmer than the second half according to the JMA weeklies .

But I think the entire months sucks. Shades down til Jan .

[uncle W]

It should end up somewhere on the list of the warmest November and Decembers if the forecasts verify.

 

Here is the November 50+ December 40+ list with the El Nino years bolded:

 

.............Nov....Dec

2015....53.4....so far

2011....51.9....43.3

2006....51.9....43.6

2001....52.7....44.1

1999....50.6....40.0

1994....52.0....42.2

1990....50.4....42.6

1982....50.4....42.8

1979....52.5....41.1

1931....51.9....41.0

[SnoSki14]

Yeh a plus 3 or 4 wouldn't shock me. The first half looks warmer than the second half according to the JMA weeklies .

But I think the entire months sucks. Shades down til Jan .

Even a +3 to 4 may be way too conservative. Granted it remains to be seen how mild the 2nd half will but I'm going with +6 to +7. 

[Isotherm]

The only strong El Nino on that Nov/Dec warmest list was 1982-83, so the sample size is very poor in terms of extrapolating forward. The 500mb anomaly composite for near neutral/+PDO/Strong El Nino Decembers yields a furnace pattern for the CONUS. So again, the upcoming regime isn't much of a surprise. 2002 and 2009 were moderate El Nino's, so they do not count. We've never had a favorable December/Strong Nino pattern since 1940.

 

The real question concerns January 1st onward: do we diverge onto a more 41/65/57 path or 83/98 path?

 

 

[Isotherm]

What essentially happened this autumn was the 'perfect storm' of ingredients for a torch Nov/December combination. Typically, November Nino forcing yields a trough in the central US/Mid-west, and by December, as wavelengths change (and climatological strengthening of the vortex) similar forcing produces a ridge in the Mid-west/East.

 

This year, we had La Nina-like forcing for November, similar to 2009 which was a torch month. Amplified/coherent MJO propagating through phases 2-3 altered the typical NPAC mid level response, inducing a widespread warmth pattern for the Plains/East.

 

Going into December, we are reverting to typical strong Nino forcing, and thus, the classic GOAK trough / CONUS furnace should ensue.

[Stormlover74]

But it was still the second snowiest for the top 5 strongest El Nino group since 1950 in NYC.

 

#1....57-58...44.7"

#2....82-83...27.2"

#3....65-66...21.4"

#4....97-98.....5.5"

#5....72-73.....2.8"

Because of 1 storm that saved the whole winter. We got lucky

[snowman19]

While it's too early to say if it will be the case this year, several winters are remembered mainly for 1 storm such as

12-13, 05-06, 00-01, 94-95, 92-93, 86-87...etc..

Had it not been for the February 1983 blizzard, that winter would have been putrid

[PB GFI]

Because of 1 storm that saved the whole winter. We got lucky

Question , Would you sacrifice the winter for just 1 good 96 type event .

A torched winter with one Feb DC to Boston 24 to 30 type event vs 2 months of 6 lots that's get you to 36 ?

I would .

[Stormlover74]

While it's too early to say if it will be the case this year, several winters are remembered mainly for 1 storm such as

12-13, 05-06, 00-01, 94-95, 92-93, 86-87...etc..

But 86-87 and 92-93 had snowy periods and several events over 4 to 6 weeks. 83 was 1 Hecs. Not saying I wouldnt love a repeat but it's very risk betting on a repeat

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[Stormlover74]

Question , Would you sacrifice the winter for just 1 good 96 type event .

A torched winter with one Feb DC to Boston 24 to 30 type event vs 2 months of 6 lots that's get you to 36 ?

I would .

Yep we're overdue for one.

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[Stormlover74]

Yeah..but those minor snowy periods without the one big event would have made those winters very forgettable

in NYC. Many winters relied on one major storm to make the whole winter memorable.

True but the biggest storms in both those years represented less than half the seasonal total. 2/11/83 was 80% of the total

Sent from my VS986 using Tapatalk

[donsutherland1]

El Niño, AO+, and PDO+ Decembers are often quite warm. At this point in time, I suspect that the CFSv2 forecast for December is reasonable, especially given the latest ensemble forecasts.

[uncle W]

Had it not been for the February 1983 blizzard, that winter would have been putrid

you could say the same about Feb. 69...other winters with different enso like 2005-06 were one storm winters...1925-26 managed two 10"+ storms in one week in February but wasn't snowy before or after that...this year could come down to late February or March for the first significant snowstorm in NYC...I'm hoping the pattern will change in January... time will tell...