Brian5671 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 A tale of two nations. Sent from my iPad at least there is cold somewher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Might as well crush records if we are to stay in this pattern. I'll say we hit 75 either 24th or 25th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 A tale of two nations. Sent from my iPad Which is pretty normal except last winter it was reversed so we didn't notice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 at least there is cold somewher Positive thinking. I like it. Is the California drought at least being dented? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Give me this ridging next summer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Give me this ridging next summer Do you want heat stroke? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Do you want heat stroke? Trolling, unless death and blackouts are part of his plan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Any luck of snow flakes next weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Any luck of snow flakes next weekend? Well 2 of the GEFS members show a coastal lol. Maybe just maybe the storm will come back but right now, it looks like maybe flurries from the lakes if we are lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tdp146 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Give me this ridging next summerHa. I was wondering where you have been through all this December heat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Wow, that's toasty.GFS has 10C 850s up to far northern Quebec/Labrador with that cutter. Brutal. As I said before, the depicted ridge could bring temperatures close to 80F in parts of the mid-Atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 GFS has 10C 850s up to far northern Quebec/Labrador with that cutter. Brutal. As I said before, the depicted ridge could bring temperatures close to 80F in parts of the mid-Atlantic. Hopefully it moderates as the date approaches. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 at least there is cold somewherThat is what I was thinking...despite the torch here, that's actually a good balance of warm to cold with widespread below normal temperatures in the American West, Alaska, Northern Canada/Canadian Archipelago, as well as Greenland and the North Atlantic.Ecologically, it's more important for the West to be cold to stop the beetle destruction of forests, as well as to build snowpack in the Rockies to provide water for animals, plants, and humans in the warm season. Also, a cold winter in the Arctic helps with pressure ridging and thicker ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 GFS has 10C 850s up to far northern Quebec/Labrador with that cutter. Brutal. As I said before, the depicted ridge could bring temperatures close to 80F in parts of the mid-Atlantic. Wow, guess we'll see how it turns out. I would imagine it backs off a little as it gets closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 NYC now at +10.5 for December. All that is needed is +6.5 to pass 2001 for the new warmest December. Greatest NYC monthly temperature departures since 1951: Jan 90....+9.6 Jan 06....+8.8 Mar 12....+8.5 Jan 98....+8.5 Jan 02....+7.9 1900-1950 the greatest departures occurred in Jan 32.. Jan 50..Mar 45 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 If guidance is correct then NYC would top Jan 90 for the greatest postive departure of any month with a final departure between +11 and +12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What departure was last February? Wasn't that near -10f? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What departure was last February? Wasn't that near -10f? -11.4 with 13.4 of snow in NYC Coldest month I have ever experienced Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 -11.4 with 13.4 of snow in NYC Coldest month I have ever experienced It's interesting that the last -10 or lower departure month was followed even more quickly by an extreme high departure. I will never forget how surprised I was that winter. Dec 89....-10.3 Jan 90.....+9.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's interesting that the last -10 or lower departure month was followed even more quickly by an extreme high departure. I will never forget how surprised I was that winter. Dec 89....-10.3 Jan 90.....+9.6 What's amazing to is the departures in SNE....ORH avg temp is 30 for the day right now and they are not even getting close to that...so far they are +9.0 for the month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What's amazing to is the departures in SNE....ORH avg temp is 30 for the day right now and they are not even getting close to that...so far they are +9.0 for the month It's also interesting that the next burst of extreme warmth forecast for later in the month looks much more like a La Nina than El Nino. Most of the top analog years around the holidays are La Nina years. Classic La Nina ridge north of Hawaii...Western NOAM trough..Eastern ridge pattern. 19991207...La Nina 20011214...La Nina 20071223...La Nina 19541230...La Nina 19941212...El Nino 20070105...El Nino 20060110...La Nina 19981207...La Nina 20011209...La Nina 19890109...La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What's the greatest daily departure, positive or negative, NYC has ever seen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Very dense fog here. Makes for nice scenery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 +21 on the minimum to start the day in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 What's the greatest daily departure, positive or negative, NYC has ever seen? I believe that was March 13, 1990, +38 on the high of 85 versus 47 normal high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 GFSx is now a mere +12degs. for the next 8 days (including today) w/o going through the arithmetic again, we are going to need the last 10 days of the month to be -2.0, to keep this Dec. from setting a new all time record. No such forecast is at hand for the remainder of the month----so I say we will blow the record away by a whole degree, like Sept. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 Insane fog, very low visibility driving to work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 It's also interesting that the next burst of extreme warmth forecast for later in the month looks much more like a La Nina than El Nino. Most of the top analog years around the holidays are La Nina years. Classic La Nina ridge north of Hawaii...Western NOAM trough..Eastern ridge pattern. 19991207...La Nina 20011214...La Nina 20071223...La Nina 19541230...La Nina 19941212...El Nino 20070105...El Nino 20060110...La Nina 19981207...La Nina 20011209...La Nina 19890109...La Nina 814analog.off.gif That's really been a common theme the last 5-10 years or so of patterns, especially in December behaving like the opposite ENSO phase. In general it's been El Niños behaving like La Niñas but we definitely saw 08-09 10-11 and 05-06 behave like El Niño for stretches. I think the December El Niños behaving like La Niña is again a product of the AMO and the generally crazy warm western Atlantic at times the last decade causing the ridge in the east or southeast US. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 That's really been a common theme the last 5-10 years or so of patterns, especially in December behaving like the opposite ENSO phase. In general it's been El Niños behaving like La Niñas but we definitely saw 08-09 10-11 and 05-06 behave like El Niño for stretches. I think the December El Niños behaving like La Niña is again a product of the AMO and the generally crazy warm western Atlantic at times the last decade causing the ridge in the east or southeast US. All that warm water north of Hawaii is also more common for a La Nina pattern than an El Nino. You can see the much warmer SST's north of Hawaii compared to the last El Nino of a similar magnitude in 1997. December La Nina composite warm SST's north of Hawaii Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 14, 2015 Share Posted December 14, 2015 The glimmer of hope I mentioned for the weeks 4-5 on the CFS weeklies yesterday was obliterated by today. This pattern seems to be hardening its stance, or these analogs are just unable to pickup on stratospheric changes that might help us eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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