bluewave Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Warmest November and December I ever remember..much different from 72-73,82-83,and 97-98,,which were still above normal but MUCH cooler.. Yeah, we have the potential to surpass 2001 for the warmest November-December on record for NYC. The last very strong El Nino to rank higher up on the list was 1982. But we are currently well ahead of that year. Top 5 Warmest November-Decembers in NYC and ENSO state #1.....2001....neutral #2.....2006....moderate El Nino #3.....2011...La Nina #4.....1994...moderate El Nino #5.....1979...weak El Nino #69...1997 #6.....1982...closest very strong to top 5 #65....1972 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 holy ish it was sunny this morn, then driving a few miles north, right at the Westchester line hit a big wall of fog. A few ppl almost ran off the road. Changed in an instant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 holy ish it was sunny this morn, then driving a few miles north, right at the Westchester line hit a big wall of fog. A few ppl almost ran off the road. Changed in an instant. it was pea soup here earlier. Slowly burning off now. 48 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Same here, dense fog this morning, near zero visibility Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Just a remarkable run of record warmth after the very cold JFM with the 3rd coldest February in NYC. The El Nino pattern has been carving out a trough over the West and a persistent strong ridge over the Northeast. Being a two year event gave the pattern the opportunity to lock in early. 2nd warmest May 3rd warmest August 1st warmest September 1st warmest November potential for warmest December http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf tie for warmest fall http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldseasons.pdf I agree. With today's high of 57° (as of 10 am), NYC's monthly anomaly is up to +8.1°. Even if the remainder of the month finishes 0.7° below normal, the monthly mean temperature would be 40°. There remains a possibility that December 2015 could be the warmest December on record. That would follow its having set the November record. There is only one prior case where the same year had two consecutive warmest months on record: 2001. November 2001 set the record for warmest November. That record was just eclipsed by 2015. December 2001 is currently the warmest December on record. If the MEX guidance through 12/17 verifies and the remainder of December averages 1.1° above normal, the 2001 record would fall. Of course, winter 2001-02 was the kind of winter that does not provide fond memories (except for snow-starved Buffalo where a dramatic lake effect event took place in from 12/24-28 (http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoles2001a.html). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 holy ish it was sunny this morn, then driving a few miles north, right at the Westchester line hit a big wall of fog. A few ppl almost ran off the road. Changed in an instant. There was a lot of very dense fog in Westchester this morning. It still persists in some areas, so while NYC had a 10 am reading of 57°, HPN was stuck at 47°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 This December has been unreal so far....went to the gym on December 11 at 8am in shorts and t-shirt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 2001-2002 is still such a strange winter. I could understand why a strong Nino winter could be so warm and snow free but that one was neutral. It completely confused all mets that season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Still very dense fog and 45* here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 2001-2002 is still such a strange winter. I could understand why a strong Nino winter could be so warm and snow free but that one was neutral. It completely confused all mets that season. some said it had to do with solar flares tightening up the polar vortex over the pole. That winter had great forecasts going in....by early Jan it was evident it wasn't happening.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 some said it had to do with solar flares tightening up the polar vortex over the pole. That winter had great forecasts going in....by early Jan it was evident it wasn't happening....There was a massive high solar flux in the fall of 2001. It warmed the tropopause and strengthened the westerlies big time. We ended up with screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow all winter long that flooded the conus and canada with pacific maritime air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Another day underfoot and the GFSx is still at +17 for next 8 days (including today) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA 850mb T's return only to normal bet. 19-24 and then seem to want to go higher again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Fog/low clouds disappearing and temperatures beginning to respond. Up to 58F as of noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 There was a massive high solar flux in the fall of 2001. It warmed the tropopause and strengthened the westerlies big time. We ended up with screaming zonal and semi-zonal flow all winter long that flooded the conus and canada with pacific maritime air I was just thinking this morning we are not that far north. It wouldn't take much (the polar jet staying north) for us to experience a Mediterranean type winter. The big news lately has been climate change lessening the chance for this and increasing troughs and blocking. It's only a matter of time that we see a super warm end to end and snowless winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFeen2000 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I was just thinking this morning we are not that far north. It wouldn't take much (the polar jet staying north) for us to experience a Mediterranean type winter. The big news lately has been climate change lessening the chance for this and increasing troughs and blocking. It's only a matter of time that we see a super warm end to end and snowless winter. if that happens, I'm moving north. Think about how nasty our summers would be 110 degrees with sticky smog pollution and 90 percent humidity. No thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +7.5 at NYC is going up over the next week with the potential for record warmth and +20 or greater daily departures. After this weekend's well-advertised torch, the 12z GFS is suggesting another period of extreme warmth Wednesday and Thursday as another low cuts to the west and pumps +10C 850s into the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I agree. With today's high of 57° (as of 10 am), NYC's monthly anomaly is up to +8.1°. Even if the remainder of the month finishes 0.7° below normal, the monthly mean temperature would be 40°. There remains a possibility that December 2015 could be the warmest December on record. That would follow its having set the November record. There is only one prior case where the same year had two consecutive warmest months on record: 2001. November 2001 set the record for warmest November. That record was just eclipsed by 2015. December 2001 is currently the warmest December on record. If the MEX guidance through 12/17 verifies and the remainder of December averages 1.1° above normal, the 2001 record would fall. Of course, winter 2001-02 was the kind of winter that does not provide fond memories (except for snow-starved Buffalo where a dramatic lake effect event took place in from 12/24-28 (http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoles2001a.html). There should be a lot of fuel in the warm lakes waiting for a good arctic front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Wrote a new blog post which you can read in the main board if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I was just thinking this morning we are not that far north. It wouldn't take much (the polar jet staying north) for us to experience a Mediterranean type winter. The big news lately has been climate change lessening the chance for this and increasing troughs and blocking. It's only a matter of time that we see a super warm end to end and snowless winter. warmer than 11-12? That's tough to beat especially the 2nd half which was an all out rain/snow free torch with 80's in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Up to 60 in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Wrote a new blog post which you can read in the main board if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-2? Excellent discussion. Thanks for the link, I don't always go to the main page that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 11, 2015 Author Share Posted December 11, 2015 Wrote a new blog post which you can read in the main board if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-2?Tommy great piece . I have like the period between Jan 10 thru the 15 to start seeing the effects from the retrogression in the means at 500 . A while back Chris had posted on how we have seen some POS enso years that have like to turn around that same period. I think we will start to see the guidance pick up on the higher heights over the pole as the ridge begins to work its way N in early January and by mid Jan we feel it's effects. The overwhelming guidance points to this . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Wrote a new blog post which you can read in the main board if interested: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47332-winter-2015-2016-medium-term-discussion/page-2? Fantastic piece. It seems that things are evolving toward a winter 1965-66 scenario with respect to the possible development of sustained blocking during the second half of January. Hopefully, as the calendar moves into January, we'll begin to see growing evidence of the polar vortex's displacement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 I agree. With today's high of 57° (as of 10 am), NYC's monthly anomaly is up to +8.1°. Even if the remainder of the month finishes 0.7° below normal, the monthly mean temperature would be 40°. There remains a possibility that December 2015 could be the warmest December on record. That would follow its having set the November record. There is only one prior case where the same year had two consecutive warmest months on record: 2001. November 2001 set the record for warmest November. That record was just eclipsed by 2015. December 2001 is currently the warmest December on record. If the MEX guidance through 12/17 verifies and the remainder of December averages 1.1° above normal, the 2001 record would fall. Of course, winter 2001-02 was the kind of winter that does not provide fond memories (except for snow-starved Buffalo where a dramatic lake effect event took place in from 12/24-28 (http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photoles2001a.html). Yeah, a December monthly average temperature in NYC near or above 2001 is the December normal for North Carolina. So people could have saved some money and stayed home instead of heading south for December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Fantastic piece. It seems that things are evolving toward a winter 1965-66 scenario with respect to the possible development of sustained blocking during the second half of January. Hopefully, as the calendar moves into January, we'll begin to see growing evidence of the polar vortex's displacement. my only concern for NAO type blocking is that pool of cold water S of Greenland....I saw somewhere that warmer waters promote blocking up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 After today's 61°-50° temperature split, New York City has an average December temperature of 48.9°, which is 8.3° above normal. If the remainder of December averages 0.8° below normal, December would still finish with a monthly mean temperature of 40.0°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Next 2 weeks still look awful officially, with a 4 out 5 confidence level. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/fxus06.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Excellent discussion. Thanks for the link, I don't always go to the main page that much. Tommy great piece . I have like the period between Jan 10 thru the 15 to start seeing the effects from the retrogression in the means at 500 . A while back Chris had posted on how we have seen some POS enso years that have like to turn around that same period. I think we will start to see the guidance pick up on the higher heights over the pole as the ridge begins to work its way N in early January and by mid Jan we feel it's effects. The overwhelming guidance points to this . Fantastic piece. It seems that things are evolving toward a winter 1965-66 scenario with respect to the possible development of sustained blocking during the second half of January. Hopefully, as the calendar moves into January, we'll begin to see growing evidence of the polar vortex's displacement. Thanks guys. I agree, Don, that we may evolve similarly to 65-66 insofar as high latitude blocking. Will be interesting to see how things progress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 The day started out foggy. Unfortunately, once the fog lifted, a horror scene unfolded. Winter was missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 12, 2015 Share Posted December 12, 2015 even though the alaskan vortex moves west a bit the deep cold is locked in siberia. combined with the +ao and western trough we get pac'd to death Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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