40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 All strength denotes is the capacity of the associated forcing to manifest itself into the atmosphere, thus shaping the pattern. I don't care if it's stronger than 1998, if the forcing shifts westward, as just about every piece of guidance suggests, then the immense magnitude of the event will begin to work in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Those are all warm NOV/DEC NINO`s that turned like the Euro is showing you . So it`s not the NINO strength that will make us warm as per the CFS its the lack of SSW ? I want to make sure I understand your argument CFS last year . I remember that monumental fail. Are you choosing just one special week to make your point like they do on the Business channels? When did the CFS first pick up on the cold JFM period? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Regardless, per Al Marinaro, the odds of a SSW this year are about 71%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I remember that monumental fail. Are you choosing just one special week to make your point like they do on the Business channels? When did the CFS first pick up on the cold JFM period? No. He is predicting a change to a colder and snowier 2nd half for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 I remember that monumental fail. Are you choosing just one special week to make your point like they do on the Business channels? When did the CFS first pick up on the cold JFM period? It picked up the Feb cold in Jan and did very well . But it had to get close . I am not saying it has to be wrong , I just think there is overwhelming guidance against it . I am only plus 1 for the winter , so by no means cold . I just like the look of a wet EC with that kind of look at 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HailMan06 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 No. He is predicting a change to a colder and snowier 2nd half for the area.To be fair it'd be very difficult to maintain the level of warmth we have now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 To be fair it'd be very difficult to maintain the level of warmth we have now. To be fair, I think he meant cold and snowy for the second half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Flowers been popping up all over. Healthy looking too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Watch the 18-20 period. You have a way better shot than I do. Anthony, while I appreciate your eternal optimism, the day 9 system on the GFS is rain or a mix all the way into the Poconos, and that's with a benchmark track. I just don't see any supply of cold air at all. This isn't even a case where some cold air is being scoured out, it just plain doesn't exist. NYC and LI would be pushing 50 degrees during the height of the storm. Furthermore, as much as it pains me to say this, the seasonal trend since Spring has been for warmer and drier as we've gotten closer to potentially stormier periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 What flower is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 looks like a rose bush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West of Town Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I recorded a -12 last winter in Chester, NJ. It was the coldest temperature I have personally experienced other than -20 in Loon Lake, NY in 2010. These are rare events in this area thankfully. I was at -9 at MMU. I'm not sure if that was at 1994 levels (1994 might have been -10 or -11), but it was the coldest since then. January 2004 (I think) was subzero, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Already 59 here. Sunny after .06 of rain last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Anthony, while I appreciate your eternal optimism, the day 9 system on the GFS is rain or a mix all the way into the Poconos, and that's with a benchmark track. I just don't see any supply of cold air at all. This isn't even a case where some cold air is being scoured out, it just plain doesn't exist. NYC and LI would be pushing 50 degrees during the height of the storm. Furthermore, as much as it pains me to say this, the seasonal trend since Spring has been for warmer and drier as we've gotten closer to potentially stormier periods. Welcome to the dark side. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 What flower is that? Knock out rose. It's a rose hybrid. It can handle temps to mid 20s and often blooms well in to December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Anthony, while I appreciate your eternal optimism, the day 9 system on the GFS is rain or a mix all the way into the Poconos, and that's with a benchmark track. I just don't see any supply of cold air at all. This isn't even a case where some cold air is being scoured out, it just plain doesn't exist. NYC and LI would be pushing 50 degrees during the height of the storm. Furthermore, as much as it pains me to say this, the seasonal trend since Spring has been for warmer and drier as we've gotten closer to potentially stormier periods. Usually is the trend to begin potent el nino seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 the low at EWR was 2F higher than the average high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Usually is the trend to begin potent el nino seasons. What do you mean by potent? Do you mean snowier, stormier, wetter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 A new record high of 60 degrees has been set at Islip this afternoon. In addition, JFK has tied its record high of 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 A new record high of 60 degrees has been set at Islip this afternoon. In addition, JFK has tied its record high of 58. Man, you guys were so bad at warmth before. It's only the beginning of this winter heatwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Radiational cooling as been pretty exceptional lately out in the burbs. Soil moisture is way down in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 With today's high temperature (so far) of 58° in New York City, the monthly anomaly has increased to +7.3°. If all remaining days were at their seasonal normal, the month would finish with a mean temperature of 39.9° (+2.3° anomaly). If one assumes the 12z MEX guidance will verify through 12/17, the month would finish with the following outcomes (average monthly temperature, monthly anomaly, rank): Remainder of December: 2° below normal: 42.7° +5.2° (7th warmest on record) 1° below normal: 43.2° +5.7° (tied, 5th warmest on record) Normal: 43.6° +6.1° (tied, 3rd warmest on record) 1° above normal: 44.1° +6.6° (tied, warmest on record) 2° above normal: 44.5° +7.0° (warmest on record) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 With today's high temperature (so far) of 58° in New York City, the monthly anomaly has increased to +7.3°. If all remaining days were at their seasonal normal, the month would finish with a mean temperature of 39.9° (+2.3° anomaly). If one assumes the 12z MEX guidance will verify through 12/17, the month would finish with the following outcomes (average monthly temperature, monthly anomaly, rank): Remainder of December: 2° below normal: 42.7° +5.2° (7th warmest on record) 1° below normal: 43.2° +5.7° (tied, 5th warmest on record) Normal: 43.6° +6.1° (tied, 3rd warmest on record) 1° above normal: 44.1° +6.6° (tied, warmest on record) 2° above normal: 44.5° +7.0° (warmest on record) Just a remarkable run of record warmth after the very cold JFM with the 3rd coldest February in NYC. The El Nino pattern has been carving out a trough over the West and a persistent strong ridge over the Northeast. Being a two year event gave the pattern the opportunity to lock in early. 2nd warmest May 3rd warmest August 1st warmest September 1st warmest November potential for warmest December http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf tie for warmest fall http://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldseasons.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 +17 departure today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Was working in white plains and mild as it was it dropped off in a hurry at sunset. Car term down to 46 but back up to the 50s in yonkers and 57 in Bx. Almost gain a degree per mile. Making for some crazy departures in urban centers. Working in the suburbs is the only thing that gives me any reminder its actually (met) winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
masomenos Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Was working in white plains and mild as it was it dropped off in a hurry at sunset. Car term down to 46 but back up to the 50s in yonkers and 57 in Bx. Almost gain a degree per mile. Making for some crazy departures in urban centers. Working in the suburbs is the only thing that gives me any reminder its actually (met) winter. Ha. That's what I was thinking. My apartment in Bushwick is in the process of being renovated, so I've been staying over in Bergen County in the mean time--I've been impressed with all the hard freezes they've had the past week. We've had nothing remotely approaching a frost, much less a hard freeze back in BK so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Today was only a taste of the torch. I'm saying somebody around here hits 70F Sunday and temps could easily overperform each day from Friday onward. I'm guessing tomorrow we hit 65, 68 on Saturday, and 70 on Sunday. Actually if the front slows down further then Monday could be just as warm as Sunday if not more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 Today I hit about 59 degrees. For tomorrow around here I'd guess maybe 62, and then 64 Saturday. My forecast for Sunday is 68, which seems a little warm, but I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +7.5 at NYC is going up over the next week with the potential for record warmth and +20 or greater daily departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted December 11, 2015 Share Posted December 11, 2015 The +7.5 at NYC is going up over the next week with the potential for record warmth and +20 or greater daily departures. Warmest November and December I ever remember..much different from 72-73,82-83,and 97-98,,which were still above normal but MUCH cooler.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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