pazzo83 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Still 55F in Central Park. I've experienced -20F several times. It happened in college in Middlebury VT in Feb/Mar 2007 as well as Jan 2009. I've also seen it at our vacation home in extreme northeast PA at 1600' elevation. I was there for part of the Jan 2009 outbreak as well, and it also happened in early Jan 2014. I still want to experience -40F or colder. I love taking walks on arctic nights with glistening powdery snow and crystal clear views of starry skies. I was one of the few people who wanted to go for a long walk when Middlebury hit -20F. I experienced about -30 at the top of one of the Killington mountains in Jan 2004. It was pretty insane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Still 55F in Central Park. I've experienced -20F several times. It happened in college in Middlebury VT in Feb/Mar 2007 as well as Jan 2009. I've also seen it at our vacation home in extreme northeast PA at 1600' elevation. I was there for part of the Jan 2009 outbreak as well, and it also happened in early Jan 2014. I still want to experience -40F or colder. I love taking walks on arctic nights with glistening powdery snow and crystal clear views of starry skies. I was one of the few people who wanted to go for a long walk when Middlebury hit -20F. I saw -40 near Quebec City in Canada in January 1992. It was hard to breathe the air without some cloth over your mouth. Thankfully there was no wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I grew up in Montreal. Now, there, there really is winter. The average February is colder than our record February that we had this year. This year, they had a record cold February as well, which was so brutal, that even the old-timers were complaining. Snow cover for the entire winter. Months without going above freezing. This year though, there is no snow yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I experienced about -30 at the top of one of the Killington mountains in Jan 2004. It was pretty insane. I think mine was -20 on top of one of the Mountains in Vermont when I was in high school on a "ski trip". Have no idea which one bc I was preoccupied with other "things". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's raining on the ND/Canadian border at this hour. That's kind of crazy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 It's raining on the ND/Canadian border at this hour. That's kind of crazy. It's a lower percentage scenario to see rain there this time of the year but it's not unprecedented by any means. https://weatherspark.com/averages/30884/Minot-North-Dakota-United-States Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I think mine was -20 on top of one of the Mountains in Vermont when I was in high school on a "ski trip". Have no idea which one bc I was preoccupied with other "things". Considering the heat that you were generating it didnt matter if it was - 120. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Not sure what it's going to take for sites like NYC/EWR/LGA/JFK to hit 0 again if we couldn't do it last February. I also think that January 1994 was the last time that spots like POU to ALB hit -20 which they couldn't do last Feb. Ehhh.. Last Feb was one of the coldest months I've ever experienced and I've lived up here for about 20 years now. Majority of the nights were at or below 0. We also had a 2'+ snowpack which added fuel to the cold snap. Bottomline is yeah we didn't hit -20 but the consistency of frigid temps was there throughout the month. EDIT: Just checked my records for Feb 2015... 17 days with nights below 0. Lowest temp in Feb 2015 was -13 for me. Not too shabby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The +6.4 monthly departure will climb over the next week as NYC has a shot at record highs by Sunday and possible daily departures of +20 or greater. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/10/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16| THU 17 CLIMO X/N 58| 50 61| 51 61| 55 65| 56 65| 47 58| 46 54| 44 48 30 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The +6.4 monthly departure will climb over the next week as NYC has a shot at record highs by Sunday and possible daily departures of +20 or greater. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/10/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16| THU 17 CLIMO X/N 58| 50 61| 51 61| 55 65| 56 65| 47 58| 46 54| 44 48 30 43 Should be interesting to see where it ends up and how the last third of the month evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Should be interesting to see where it ends up and how the last third of the month evolves. Very strong agreement between the EPS and GEFS that the deep trough over the West continues to pump the ridge over the Northeast right through Christmas. It's really a continuation of the May, September, and November patterns. I guess this is what happens when the El Nino comes on so strong and early. Patterns can start locking in earlier and become more persistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Ehhh.. Last Feb was one of the coldest months I've ever experienced and I've lived up here for about 20 years now. Majority of the nights were at or below 0. We also had a 2'+ snowpack which added fuel to the cold snap. Bottomline is yeah we didn't hit -20 but the consistency of frigid temps was there throughout the month. EDIT: Just checked my records for Feb 2015... 17 days with nights below 0. Lowest temp in Feb 2015 was -13 for me. Not too shabby 17 nights below zero just in February, wow! I had 15 for the whole winter with my lowest of -14 on 2/21/15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Have some free time this week, so I'm able to post this. JMA weeklies updated, I rotated them for easier viewing; Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 & 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Well those look god awful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Well those look god awful. As do these from this morning: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Have some free time this week, so I'm able to post this. JMA weeklies updated, I rotated them for easier viewing; Same story with the EPS and GEFS. We had hints to this early winter 500 mb set up with the May, September, and November Western trough and Eastern ridge pattern. Persistent 500 mb patterns locking in for extended periods have defined the 2000's so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 As do these from this morning: We may legitimately see Spring springing to life in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 The trough is backing up in the west week 3 and 4. A trough is developing in the SE and the ridge is pushing N . You don't live at 18k feet , stop being scared away at colors on a map . You are probably plus 2 or so which is in line with the euro weeklies and you starting to see the NEG in the PAC backup . Patience this was never to flip on a dime and DEC is where is was always suppose to be AN Plus 4 or plus 8 is irrelevant it's exactly where it's suppose to be and so are those weeklies at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Another day and the GFSx is still a whopping +17degs. above normal for the next 8 days (including today). http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA (6.4x9)+(17x8)= a surplus of 194 degs. by the morning of the 18th. Target to become the hottest Dec. ever is about 211. Therefore with 14 days left in the month (from the 18th) less than 20 additional surplus degs.would be needed in this period, say +1.5degs. for the last 2 weeks. This month can accomplish that just by standing on Santa's head. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Georgous morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Accuweather is basically indicating no below weather for the next 30 days, except for an accident. This would then make a period of about 6 weeks with virtually no below normal days. I'm failing to see the issue with this. We may not be getting all of the rain that you would normally see with a strong Nino but we're certainly seeing the above normal temps on par. If you want significant snow, you're probably going to need to look beyond MLK Day unless the stars can come perfectly into alignment and we get lucky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm failing to see the issue with this. We may not be getting all of the rain that you would normally see with a strong Nino but we're certainly seeing the above normal temps on par. If you want significant snow, you're probably going to need to look beyond MLK Day unless the stars can come perfectly into alignment and we get lucky. Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 You have it wrong I think. It better happen before MLK., ( the analogs are showing another explosive temperature burst here during second half of January). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 You have it wrong I think. It better happen before MLK., ( the analogs are showing another explosive temperature burst here during second half of January). 57/58 02/03 09/10? The warmth is in the front of this winter . The CFS is alone . Compliments of the NE thread . Buy this seasonal model at your own risk Last years , oops Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I'm failing to see the issue with this. We may not be getting all of the rain that you would normally see with a strong Nino but we're certainly seeing the above normal temps on par. If you want significant snow, you're probably going to need to look beyond MLK Day unless the stars can come perfectly into alignment and we get lucky. Watch the 18-20 period. You have a way better shot than I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 Joe D`Aleo Warn NOV/DEC in EL NINO years - following J-M Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 The air has a real Spring feel to it today. Almost like a Mid-April Morning, especially with some fog in the distance. 50° at about 10 this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 57/58 65/66 02/03 ? What does this season have in common with those? Was there SSW events during those years? The only thing that will change this winter pattern while it is still the winter is a SSW in the right part of the stratosphere that reaches the top of troposphere, where it can lower gph's and bust up the polar vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 What does this season have in common with those? Was there SSW events during those years? The only thing that will change this winter pattern while it is still the winter is a SSW in the right part of the stratosphere that reaches the top of troposphere, where it can lower gph's and bust up the polar vortex. Those are all warm NOV/DEC NINO`s that turned like the Euro is showing you . So it`s not the NINO strength that will make us warm as per the CFS its the lack of SSW ? I want to make sure I understand your argument CFS last year . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 10, 2015 Author Share Posted December 10, 2015 I know, but they have been right so far. Yes but ALL of the guidance was AN for DEC . No model saw plus 6 but they ALL had the ridge in the east . Again the divergence is once into JAN.' You may be ignoring /or not seeing all of the other guidance . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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