CIK62 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 GFSx for the next 8 days (including today) is at a whopping +16degs. http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 If above works out we will have a surplus of (6.3x8) + (16x8) =178degs by the morning of the 17th. If remainder of month were to be exactly normal then 178/31=+5.7degs. would be the final tally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The tendency the past 20 years even in snowier winters and even some of the snowier Decembers like 02 has been for it to not be the coldest or even the warmest month of the winter there is no doubt about that. The lack of cold has been the most obvious in December compared to other winter months since the 1980's. NYC hasn't seen a December daily record low temperature since 1988. December 1989 was the most recent top 10 coldest for NYC. Top 10 cold was closer in January with 2004 and February 2015. NYC put in a January daily record low in 2014 and February 2015. But even with January and February, there have been some long gaps between record cold during the 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 And who says the rest of the month after the 16th. will be normal? It need only be +2 to set a new record monthly record for Dec. I think we blast away the old record by a degree (+4, second halve), as was done to September's record. I see no evidence of any extended below normal period in sight. Second week of Jan. might qualify. A SSW event, in the right part of the stratosphere is only hope for the winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The lack of cold has been the most obvious in December compared to other winter months since the 1980's. NYC hasn't seen a December daily record low temperature since 1988. December 1989 was the most recent top 10 coldest for NYC. Top 10 cold was closer in January with 2004 and February 2015. NYC put in a January daily record low in 2014 and February 2015. But even with January and February, there have been some long gaps between record cold during the 2000's. I don't really like looking at record lows in the park. The heat island is just massive compared to early on in the record. Radiational cooling is basically out for the park. So it takes a mega CAA event to challange a record. I bet allot of the very old record lows occurred during calm clear nights with high pressure overhead Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The torch starts tonight with a low of 47F in Dobbs Ferry. Averages for Southern Westchester (White Plains airport) are down to 42/29 and drop to 36/24 by month's end. With the decreasing normals, we should post +15F to +20F departures the next few days. The models have also extended the torch with the front not arriving until Monday. Even when 850s drop Monday evening, the surface stays warm due to WNW downsloping winds, so coastal areas could register another mid December day in the 50s. NWS has my warmest day at 60/50 on Sunday, which is a +19.5F departure. I think highs will actually be 65-70F, which will bring a +25F departure. This makes the first week of December, which was +6.5F at Central Park, seem cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I don't really like looking at record lows in the park. The heat island is just massive compared to early on in the record. Radiational cooling is basically out for the park. So it takes a mega CAA event to challange a record. I bet allot of the very old record lows occurred during calm clear nights with high pressure overhead The heat island hasn't changed much from 76-94 when the record lows were much more frequent in NYC. But it does indicate weaker cold airmasses in general since then. Even sites that have excellent radiational haven't been able to challenge their record lows from the 77-94 era during the 2000's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 The heat island hasn't changed much from 76-94 when the record lows were much more frequent in NYC. But it does indicate weaker cold airmasses in general since then. Even sites that have excellent radiational haven't been able to challenge their record lows from the 77-94 era during the 2000's. I honestly believe the AMO is to blame for that. We will find out in the next 15 years I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I honestly believe the AMO is to blame for that. We will find out in the next 15 years I guess It's probably factors like AMO superimposed on the long term warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I honestly believe the AMO is to blame for that. We will find out in the next 15 years I guessI think that's a big part of it. Maybe 75%.'The Central Park heat island accounts for another 20% and 5% to straight up global warming. There actually has been allot of development around the park during the 80s and 90s with large apartment buildings 20 to 50+ storys replacing smaller lower buildings. All those huge luxury buildings you see on 3rd ave on the upper east side certainly enhance the heat island. This is only going to increase in coming years with the new super tall towers 1,000" + of which there are many going up. The park is becoming increasingly it's own micro climate that doesn't represent the rest of the city well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think that's a big part of it. Maybe 75%.' The Central Park heat island accounts for another 20% and 5% to straight up global warming. There actually has been allot off development around the park during the 80s and 90s with large apartment buildings 20 to 50+ stories replacing smaller lower buildings. All those huge luxury buildings you see on 3rd ave on the upper east side certainly enhance the heat island. This is only going to increase in coming years with the new super tall towers 1,000" + of which there are many going up. The park is becoming increasingly it's own micro climate that doesn't represent the rest of the city well But the more rural locations show the same trend so you can't blame it on UHI. So all that is left are patterns like AMO and the general long term warming trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 But the more rural locations show the same trend so you can't blame it on UHI. So all that is left are patterns like AMO and the general long term warming trend. Im no disagreeing with you that's why I said it's a small factor but I truly believe it is a factor. Wether it's responsible for 20% or 2 is hard to say but it's something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Im no disagreeing with you that's why I said it's a small factor but I truly believe it is a factor. Wether it's responsible for 20% or 2 is hard to say but it's something Not sure what it's going to take for sites like NYC/EWR/LGA/JFK to hit 0 again if we couldn't do it last February. I also think that January 1994 was the last time that spots like POU to ALB hit -20 which they couldn't do last Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Not sure what it's going to take for sites like NYC/EWR/LGA/JFK to hit 0 again if we couldn't do it last February. I also think that January 1994 was the last time that spots like POU to ALB hit -20 which they couldn't do last Feb. I think it takes a full scale change in the amo. You would need near perfect cross polar flow over the top from the heart of Siberia during the heart of the winter, say mid January. Have that flow funnel down the Hudson valley as opposed to coming in from the north west over the lakes and down the mountains. I agree I would want to see ALB down to sub -20 as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think it takes a full scale change in the amo. You would need near perfect cross polar flow over the top from the heart of Siberia during the heart of the winter, say mid January. Have that flow funnel down the Hudson valley as opposed to coming in from the north west over the lakes and down the mountains. I agree I would want to see ALB down to sub -20 as well Last February was an odd month for consistently cold temperatures but not as impressive coldest monthly minimum. February 79 had smaller monthly negative departures, but the lowest readings of the month were lower in many spots than 15. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 the heat island is expanding in all directions...Jersey has many parking lots where trees once stood not to long ago...February 2016 could be ten degrees warmer than 2015 and still be a good winter month... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think development in the suburbs msy be modifying cold airmasses arriving in NYC on N/NW winds. There has been a lot of development in NNJ and Westchester since the 70s. Even as a kid, I remember areas of northern Westchester like Yorktown were almost all wooded...now they are filled with large-scale developments. You also have the construction of the Palisades Mall and several other major shopping centers along Route 17 in Orange County. The stretch between Middletown and Harriman (exits 121-131) used to be mainly farmland, rolling hills, and forest. Now there are several major shopping areas along the highway with multiple big box stores and chain restaurants. All of this development in the source regions for cold may be having an effect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 I think development in the suburbs msy be modifying cold airmasses arriving in NYC on N/NW winds. There has been a lot of development in NNJ and Westchester since the 70s. Even as a kid, I remember areas of northern Westchester like Yorktown were almost all wooded...now they are filled with large-scale developments. You also have the construction of the Palisades Mall and several other major shopping centers along Route 17 in Orange County. The stretch between Middletown and Harriman (exits 121-131) used to be mainly farmland, rolling hills, and forest. Now there are several major shopping areas along the highway with multiple big box stores and chain restaurants. All of this development in the source regions for cold may be having an effect. The lows in the more rural areas outside the heat island were actually warmer than 1994 compared to NYC. NYC got closer to the January 1994 low of -2 in February at +2 than many more rural Northeast spots did to their January 1994 lows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 we can get patterns to produce record monthly cold but the bottom for daily lows has been shaved off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 the heat island is expanding in all directions...Jersey has many parking lots where trees once stood not to long ago...February 2016 could be ten degrees warmer than 2015 and still be a good winter month... Last February was lackluster for snow in NYC compared to the much warmer February 2010 and 2006. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Last February was lackluster for snow in NYC compared to the much warmer February 2010 and 2006. We just missed out on epicness. But I agree it does not have to be as cold as last February to be a great snow month. I fully expect we see close to if not more snow then last feb with temps at least 5 degrees warmer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. Dec1-7.gif You'll see height falls over the Western US as the Aleutian Low presses east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 9, 2015 Author Share Posted December 9, 2015 Yeh Chris the 850 anomalies day 10 thru 15 on the Euro ensembles are plus 1C ish . The 19th - 24 may feel a little more like Christmas if it's right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. Dec1-7.gif Look forward to the updated post..... Looks like we will fall to around normal the weekend of the 20th, but warm up again around Christmas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. If that stubborn pattern ever retros then we'd actually have some winter to look forward to. Fingers crossed for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 So, this is where we stand wrt H5 anomalies after the first 7 days of the month. I'm interested in how the month as a whole pans out. I'll post this again once we have 14 days. If that stubborn pattern ever retros then we'd actually have some winter to look forward to. Fingers crossed for February. Winter will be here in January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 I recorded a -12 last winter in Chester, NJ. It was the coldest temperature I have personally experienced other than -20 in Loon Lake, NY in 2010. These are rare events in this area thankfully. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Still 55F in Central Park. I've experienced -20F several times. It happened in college in Middlebury VT in Feb/Mar 2007 as well as Jan 2009. I've also seen it at our vacation home in extreme northeast PA at 1600' elevation. I was there for part of the Jan 2009 outbreak as well, and it also happened in early Jan 2014. I still want to experience -40F or colder. I love taking walks on arctic nights with glistening powdery snow and crystal clear views of starry skies. I was one of the few people who wanted to go for a long walk when Middlebury hit -20F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted December 10, 2015 Share Posted December 10, 2015 Lowest temps Ive ever experienced was in Boston at -5 in 2009 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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