bluewave Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The second week is week of December is going to have milder departures than the first week. NYC is at +6.5 for the first week of December. The GEFS are a whopping +12 to +15 for the next seven days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 euro broken down in N/E. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 euro broken down in N/E. No idea what that means--what's broken down? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 No idea what that means--what's broken down? Euro weeklies Week 4 Disco 7 days of 500mb and 850 anomaly maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Week 4 euro broken down in N/E. The interesting thing about the Euro monthly for December issued on November 8th is Aleutian Low position further to the east than the present weeklies as of last night are showing. While the monthly was warm for December, it's going to underestimate the departure compared to what we are getting. I think the new Euro monthlies come out today so I will be curious to see what they show. El Ninos are typically back-loaded winters, but the degree of back-loadedness can vary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The interesting thing about the Euro monthly for December issued on November 8th is Aleutian Low position further to the east than the present weeklies as of last night are showing. While the monthly was warm for December, it's going to underestimate the departure compared to what we are getting. I think the new Euro monthlies come out today so I will be curious to see what they show. El Ninos are typically back-loaded winters, but the degree of back-loadedness can vary. I agree, especially if we stay dry, the + departures are going to be astounding. If it gets stormier, then the + departures could be less Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I agree, especially if we stay dry, the + departures are going to be astounding. If it gets stormier, then the + departures could be less Yeah, the GEFS +12 to +15 departure for the next week is very impressive warmth for the second week of December. The amount of warmth since the pattern flip after last March is amazing considering how unusually cold February was. But the Nino driven ridge over the NE locked in in May and hasn't let up. Talk about persistent 500 mb pressure patterns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 The interesting thing about the Euro monthly for December issued on November 8th is Aleutian Low position further to the east than the present weeklies as of last night are showing. While the monthly was warm for December, it's going to underestimate the departure compared to what we are getting. I think the new Euro monthlies come out today so I will be curious to see what they show. El Ninos are typically back-loaded winters, but the degree of back-loadedness can vary. I wasn't buying a day 25 to 32 forecast , just responding to the posts " worst I have ever seen " and "really warm " . They are not , they aren't cold but the week 4 at 500 is breaking away from the week 1 through 3 pattern. ( which we all expected ) I did originally think plus 2 at the start of the month a few days I was think plus 4 , but snoski plus 9.5 which I thought was really high will b a lot closer if we do finish with the record , so thats a very good job on his part. Thankfully I am plus 1 for J thru M , it would have been impossible to erase the Dec departure . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted December 8, 2015 Author Share Posted December 8, 2015 The interesting thing about the Euro monthly for December issued on November 8th is Aleutian Low position further to the east than the present weeklies as of last night are showing. While the monthly was warm for December, it's going to underestimate the departure compared to what we are getting. I think the new Euro monthlies come out today so I will be curious to see what they show. El Ninos are typically back-loaded winters, but the degree of back-loadedness can vary. I have the new monthlies J-M look fine +.05 - 1 @ 2M, looks v good @ 500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 GFSx still figures to be +13degs. over next 8 days (including today) http://www.nws.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/mos/getmex.pl?sta=KACY&sta=KEWR&sta=KNYC&sta=KJFK&sta=KLGA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 2010-11 wasn't a strong la Nina? it was the 8th strongest la nina per oni numbers...extreme blocking saved that winter... year.....DJF .....peak...snowfall 73-74....-1.7.....-1.9.......23.5" 88-89....-1.6.....-1.8.........8.1" 99-00....-1.6.....-1.6.......16.3" 75-76....-1.5.....-1.6.......17.3" 49-50....-1.4.....???.......13.8" 98-99....-1.4.....-1.4.......12.7" 07-08....-1.4.....-1.4.......11.9" 10-11....-1.3.....-1.4.......61.9" 70-71....-1.3.....-1.3.......15.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 I have the new monthlies J-M look fine +.05 - 1 @ 2M, looks v good @ 500 Thanks...it will be interesting to see how much the Aleutian Low can back off during the second half of winter. The Euro wasn't far enough east with the Aleutian Low for December. But hopefully it does better with JFM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 There could actually be some decent convection on Sunday night if the 12z GFS is correct. The GFS is indicating the possibility of a weakly unstable atmosphere ahead of the cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 The 12z GEFS shows a fairly wet pattern developing week two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted December 8, 2015 Share Posted December 8, 2015 Things are going as planned so far with the super warm December. If anything my +4 - +6 is going to come in low. It's actually a little cooler on the island today with an onshore flow. Pretty amazing for December that an onshore flow is cooler then off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Looks like overall pattern gradually in a step wise manner gets progressively better, stormier,, and colder beginning in about a week, and especially so right before Christmas... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCSNOWMAN2020 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Looks like overall pattern gradually in a step wise manner gets progressively better, stormier,, and colder beginning in about a week, and especially so right before Christmas...I'm waiting to see models by Sunday to see if it really does start step down to more snow chances .. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 My personal opinion for the pattern to get better I would like to see the mjo in phases 7/8 and 1 until then I guess I'll just have to enjoy hitting the golf courses why I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Today's cool day "only" had a +5 departure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Currently 25 here.. Another seasonable early winter night up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JerseyWx Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 30° here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Tonight should be the last seasonably cold night for a while. You gotta love how the gfs loves to suddenly hurl the Arctic into the US in the LR. I mean yeah we'll see a step down from ridiculous warmth to normal warmth but I do not see us rapidly flipping to cold so quickly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Both the GFS and Euro are advertising the potential for mid 60's on Sunday which would be a new record for the 13th across the area. The December monthly temperature departures are going to be very impressive for December 1-15. NEW YORK CITY-CENTRAL PARK KNYC GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/09/2015 0000 UTC FHR 24| 36 48| 60 72| 84 96|108 120|132 144|156 168|180 192 WED 09| THU 10| FRI 11| SAT 12| SUN 13| MON 14| TUE 15| WED 16 CLIMO X/N 52| 48 57| 49 61| 51 60| 54 66| 55 64| 48 51| 42 52 31 43 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 what a 4 day torch! Low's in the mid 50's in the city? Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 what a 4 day torch! Low's in the mid 50's in the city? Wow. We'll get a chance for +20 or greater daily departures with new records possible if it verifies that warm. It would be the greatest December warmth here since the record warmth right before Christmas 2013. NYC 12/21/13 65 51 58 22 12/22/13 71 61 66 30 12/23/13 64 42 53 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 We'll get a chance for +20 or greater daily departures with new records possible if it verifies that warm. Is +6 the number to beat for warmest December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 Is +6 the number to beat for warmest December? With recent climo, a +6.6 would tie 2001 for the warmest December n NYC. December 2001...44.1....December average....37.5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 With recent climo, a +6.6 would tie 2001 for the warmest December n NYC. December 2001...44.1....December average....37.5. If you look at december averages for the last 15 years or so you would find they are running about a degree or so above that 37.5 average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 If you look at december averages for the last 15 years or so you would find they are running about a degree or so above that 37.5 average. That would be reflected when the new 30 year 1991-2020 climo comes out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 9, 2015 Share Posted December 9, 2015 If you look at december averages for the last 15 years or so you would find they are running about a degree or so above that 37.5 average. The tendency the past 20 years even in snowier winters and even some of the snowier Decembers like 02 has been for it to not be the coldest or even the warmest month of the winter there is no doubt about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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