Yellow alert! Archembault, Yellow alert: ~ November 29 thru December 7

[CT Valley Snowman]

There are several factors here. It is clear that John has exceptional technical writing skills, and did a superb job in outlining the upcoming pattern. But there are a few reasons why the responses have been relatively few. 1. It is a holiday week and many people are very busy and not as engulfed in the weather as they could be. 2. The models have been known to rush and over amplify things in the long range only to back down as we get closer, and the volatility has left some us waiting to comment on something that will probably change on the next set of model runs. 3. We are bottom line people, and analyzing 42 degree rain storms when we are all itching for our first snowfall can be annoying, and there have been very few operational or ensemble runs that have actually shown any snowfall of significance in SNE during this period we are analyzing. There is still a small potential there but until we I see something more concrete I usually just watch and don't comment on what I think is model noise. Tip did a nice job and offers much to the board, it's just that as of now, the pattern has not looked like it will produce the results that people are looking for, but that still could change.

[J.Spin]

It was noted that he did a great job outlining it, but the fact of the matter is that now that the threat doesn't hold much wintery appeal for the vast majority of posters, interest has waned.

That is about as objective, and empirically based as it comes.

It is no one's fault, not a reflection on John....just human nature.

 

I get that maybe a 1-2 SD PNA ridge, or whatever, is anomalous, but sensibly there will be nothing anomalous about it.

Again, has nothing to do with who started it.....if it were me who started this thread, the same thing would have happened.

 

Absolutely, that makes total sense.  There have been some very nice acknowledgements and participation as well, such as yours from earlier today, and a good note about why it’s not of high interest to you.  It’s is however very nice to see that the discussion of the general event period has continued somewhat, despite little appeal to the majority of subforum participants.  We’re not paying for this service like we are for the NWS offices, so these threads with the voluntary contribution to the whole region are especially appreciated.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Absolutely, that makes total sense.  There have been some very nice acknowledgements and participation as well, such as yours from earlier today, and a good note about why it’s not of high interest to you.  It’s is however very nice to see that the discussion of the general event period has continued somewhat, despite little appeal to the majority of subforum participants.  We’re not paying for this service like we are for the NWS offices, so these threads with the voluntary contribution to the whole region are especially appreciated.

Yes, I can see why you are still interested, so its nice that some continue to address the issue.

[Amped]

I can see that a few GEFS members are trying to cut a low off around December 4th-5th. Getting enough cold air will be another issue but there's a decent shot at a cuttoff.

[Typhoon Tip]

Thanks for the acknowledgment for writing, guys.  Does mean something - for me anyway, and I appreciated it. I have gotten 'taps on the shoulder' re trying to do something more constructive with all that ... for years and years actually.  I have a novel ready to submit, but early returns are as usual for utterly unknown authors, pretty much auto-86ing.   Self-publication is plausible, and will probably be heading that way soon. But ...part of me almost doesn't want to bother because I'm doing a mid-life 'what the f is it all for anyway' trope, too - ha!

 

Ray actually magnified rather nicely with this sentiment: 

 

"doesn't hold much wintery appeal for the vast majority of posters, interest has waned"

 

That's specifically "it" in a nut shell. It is what used to irk me to no end, too.  Not so much any more.

 

Anyway, not to derail this train wreck any worse than the chemical spill of a thread it's turned out to be ... around circa 2003 and 2004, I was originally introduced to a forum called "Wright Weather." I wasn't there more than a month when I was encourage to hop over to Eastern WX. I don't know how long Eastern was there before going over, but the J.Q. Public atmospheric venue (no pun intended) was a lot different ( to put it mildly) than it was by the time nearing Eastern's demise. Defining the differences ? ...heh, flame throwing demo upon a staged elevated by powder kegs.  No thanks -

 

Though the etymology of American WX owes its very existence there, America' has (for better or worse) evolved so much that the tenors are a far different expectation, both socially and intellectually.  Leaving it there. 

 

Oh well... nice Archembault signal here "perhaps" correlating rather nicely but quintessentially wrongly relative to the majority's hopes and dreams.  Cool.  Weather does come along in tragic comedy at times - ha.

 

I will say this ... I find it fascinating that despite the intensely clustered CPC PNA, and demonstrative signal at CDC, the Euro operational, for all intents and purposes, really has struggled to represent a synoptic evolution over any run that I have seen over the past week, that's fit all that well.  I don't get to see the actual numerical/graphical values of the ECMWF's product spectrum, but the free-be blend hasn't really looked to good either.  Perhaps the GEFs and Euro were at odds all a long?  

 

I also looked a bit closer at the Pacific and noticed that ...right along about 35 N across the girdle of the expanse, there is a subtle split - I am wondering if perhaps we are seeing a manifestation of the opposing ENSO underneath the NP/AA ?  Possible ... would take more than an observational set like this to prove, but worth supposition in my mind... It could just as easily be happenstance result of a chaos in transition... but, I think the loss of a more full latitude constructive wave interference may also have something to do with why a better correlation isn't taking place more coherently.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

John, go for it....what the hell do you have to lose....what, you remain unknown?

[eduggs]

 

Some changes on the 12z GFS in the 2.5 to 4 day time frame.

[eduggs]

snow cmc.jpg

 

The CMC has some midweek snow for C and NNE.  It doesn't have much support from other models but this time period showed promise several days ago when this thread was launched.  It's not out of the question that we move back towards that solution.  I feel like we see that sometimes.  Threat appears around day 10, disappears around days 9 - 6 or so, and then reappears in the day 4-6 time frame.  I don't love the synoptic setup but at least it looks active and we might be able to sneak something out of the next 6-10 days.  So many of our snowstorms appear out of imperfect looking setups.

 

This is kind of how the CMC produced a few inches of snow in NNE for a run two days ago.  If that ULL digs further S than recent progs, a slut of moisture could develop in the area of upper level divergence ahead of the wave.  It could possiby throw some moisture back into the approaching cold air.  With warm surface temps and modest CAA, I'm looking at primarily elevations above 1500ft in VT and NH, and possibly the Dacks and WMA.  Low probability but I'm digging for scraps considering the pattern we are in.  The NAM tentatively supports this threat as well but if I had to guess I would expect the wave to end up too progressive with moisture mostly offshore with the final wave (after the initial period of rain), and cold air too late.

[eduggs]

I wonder if there's a chance the midweek threat could be revived.  If that bowling ball ULL traverses a little further southeast, it might open the door to some coastal redevelopment.  Maybe W or CNE could get some flakes as the cold air moves in from the west.  Odds are against it but this is still within the time period that midrange guidance loses and rediscovers threats.

Maybe not an archembault event but we're trending towards a higher impact coastal storm.  Cold air still looks to arrive a little late outside northern, elevated regions.  But some snow looks possible as far south as the Berkshires.  I'm not sure we're done trending, however.

[dryslot]

Whomever has an agenda can potentially slap people around come verification.

 

Won't be many taking their hands out of their jorts pockets anytime soon

[eduggs]

The changes with respect to the handling of the midwestern ULL have been impressive over the past 2 days.  The structure is now progged to be considerably deeper, further south, and neutrally tilted compared to a few days ago.  It looks like the 0z NAM will continue that trend.  This "threat" was first evident in guidance more than a week ago.  After completely disappearing, it showed up again 4 days ago with the CMC and then in a few GEFS members.  It now looks possible that some elevated regions in NVT, NNH, and Maine could get significant snow from this system.

[eduggs]

Recent trends also incorporate more and more of the s/w moving through Tx.  The further downsream that wave makes it with respect to the longwave positioning, the quicker and more significantly the ULL system will take on a negative tilt.

 

That would likely induce a stronger surface coastal low (and higher QPF) but also possibly more warm air initially surging far up into NNE (depending on exact SLP track).