Yellow alert! Archembault, Yellow alert: ~ November 29 thru December 7

[MJO812]

Not 1..but now 2 big rainstorms to Maine next week !!

What?

[Typhoon Tip]

I never really liked the structure of that first system translation for the time interval being discussed. Though I figured the potentials were increasing (for activity) by the 29th, I didn't visualize any initial action being from a closed low ejection like that which immediately was churned out by the GFS operational, three days ago.  I mentioned this to Ray back on page whatever.. 

 

Since then, the modeled deep layer flow over Canada has mutated just enough that now most guidance induce polarward motion well prior to 80 W - i.e., Lakes cutter.  

 

What's interesting ... as of 06Z the operational GFS doesn't even really depict a GL cutter, either... it's trying to shear/damp-out that first resulting system into weak fropa, even for them!

 

...Huh ?   

 

Some would throw horse-blinders on blame the rising/+NAO for that outright.  But that's not really right in this case.  It is the                                               -PNA/+NAO that is more conducive to early turning extratropical events. When the PNA is rising, however, such that it is and will continue to do if the GEFs EOF's et al are correct... that changes the landscape of things.  

 

The higher correlated north American pattern response to a strong(ish) PNA signal...

 

...is +Perennial North American Pattern (+PNAP).  

 

Quickly: A neutral PNAP is a slight torque bulge over the Rockies, with a subsequent wave-guided depression over the east... So, by "+", we mean to exaggerating that construct. That exaggerated look also highly correlated to the +PNA.

 

Anyway, having a higher ridge in the west, requires (by wave numbers) a deeper depression in the east - well, think about that ... how are we going to turn a system polarward through the Lakes when the deep layer flow is supposed to be NW there?   Thus, the +NAO alone would argue for that - the combination of all teleconnectors objectively really doesn't.  

 

More and more from the GEFs and operational version, it appears the better cyclogen instability period will be focused in the D 3-7 range.   

 

Firstly, there is giant "cold war" going on between the Euro Capulet and GEFs Montugue families... I don't get to see quite the same pantheon of Euro guidance resources .. because I hate ECMWF as an arrogant organization and will never pay for their overrate schit...  but, from what I gather, the Euro derivates don't agree very well with the GEFs.   Certainly, the operational version part company even more so than the normal discord that tends to go on with extended range model antics.

 

Having said that, it makes me wonder which side is going to bust here.  This somewhat reminds me of when the operational model types disagree on a system on D 4 (which is getting down right close to be disagreeing) and what actually verifies is a nice compromise?   I don't know if that same sort of resolution tendency should apply to the band-width of 21 contributing members.  It'll be interesting to see which way the verification slopes.  

 

If it does so in favor of the Euro, than this whole 29th through Dec 7 (though we can probably safely whittle that to Dec 1 at this point) would have to be presumed less active than going with the GEFs.  Interesting...

 

As of last night's numbers, though, the GEFs are even more coherent with the PNA.  This is like Cuban Missile crisis manifestation of the ensemble cold war metaphor I guess.. Meanwhile, the operational Euro looks like it's modeling Mars compared to that.  The blended version of the Euro ensembles does smooth quite a bit of that, and looks merely like a low implication split in the west, with only vague distortion of a PNAP altogether - i.e., nothing happens at all, really.  

 

You really have two opposing/disparate ideas ...almost at a hemispheric scale - certainly on our side. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Go with whatever model shows warmth and rain..and you'll win until further notice in general

[Great Snow 1717]

Go with whatever model shows warmth and rain..and you'll win until further notice in general

Bet the trend is the way to go. It's similar to a "sports model" showing Manziel is going to do something stupid.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Go with whatever model shows warmth and rain..and you'll win until further notice in general

Agree.

I still wonder if it may come back east some, but it never mattered for us.

[eduggs]

I wonder if there's a chance the midweek threat could be revived.  If that bowling ball ULL traverses a little further southeast, it might open the door to some coastal redevelopment.  Maybe W or CNE could get some flakes as the cold air moves in from the west.  Odds are against it but this is still within the time period that midrange guidance loses and rediscovers threats.

[Typhoon Tip]

I'm surprised no-one locked in the GGEM's 30 to 40" half of last years snow total in single storm for NYC solution..

 

I mean ...seein' as it's so likely to happen -

[Go Kart Mozart]

I'm surprised no-one locked in the GGEM's 30 to 40" half of last years snow total in single storm solution for NYC solution..

 

I mean ...seein' as it's so likely to happen -

Say what? Can you link a map?  I'm not seeing it through 144 hrs.

[Ginx snewx]

Say what? Can you link a map? I'm not seeing it through 144 hrs.

well north of NYC

[eduggs]

Long duration precip event on the CMC.  But it starts as rain everywhere and takes a while for a changeover to snow from NW to SE.  Not going to happen like that.  But at least there's a vague threat to track.  It would be nice to get a trackable threat within 144 hrs.

[Typhoon Tip]

well north of NYC

 

 

It was hyperbole - although... if those synoptic charts were half right that product above is totally wrong  

[Ginx snewx]

Long duration precip event on the CMC. But it starts as rain everywhere and takes a while for a changeover to snow from NW to SE. Not going to happen like that. But at least there's a vague threat to track. It would be nice to get a trackable threat within 144 hrs.

our look ends at 240 but lol look at the synoptics, thats classic HECS like about to pop, below zero air near Toronto getting drawn into a 997 deepening stalled stacked lp ,fantasy porn

[Ginx snewx]

It was hyperbole - although... if those synoptic charts were half right that product above is totally wrong

IDK surface temps in the mid 30s due to protracted East winds shown probably right but damn nice CF

[Damage In Tolland]

I am on record. No measurable snow BDL/BOS in Dec,. Brutal, brutal look on all products

[40/70 Benchmark]

IDK surface temps in the mid 30s due to protracted East winds shown probably right but damn nice CF

I'd have a lot of trouble in that if there are easterly winds....CF would be back neat I 495 like Dec 1996.

[Ginx snewx]

I'd have a lot of trouble in that if there are easterly winds....CF would be back neat I 495 like Dec 1996.

GGEM, developed and maintained by weenies everywhere. Programming and upgrades provided by snowfantasyporn.com

[Typhoon Tip]

Folks having trouble being patient ... This is/was always going to need time to marinade. 

 

The period of time Nov 29 thru ~ Dec 7 is still in play.  In fact, it could objectively be argued that the 'active essence' that underscored the purpose of bringing that interval of time to light, is already beginning...

 

 

...if perhaps merely not taking place exactly where forum members happen to be located.

 

The leading teleconnector, the EPO, really did do it's job.  I was bothering to actually LOOK at data this morning and was pretty astounded to see just how cold the atmosphere is so near.  On a scales not much larger than New England, we are talking literally right on the doorstep synoptically.  

 

 

Moreover expanding this observation to the scale of the Canadian provinces exposes nothing record shattering or extraordinarily cold perhaps, but certainly there is a vaster reservoir of cold atmospheric mass that has been successfully loaded.  This is quite a bit different than 7 to 10 days early; the culprit for the generation is in part in situ with steadily increasing snow pack under long nights, but also the deep layer NW flow that placed there by the EPO domain. 

 

Currently folks E of 90 to 80 W and S of the 45th or so parallel are being sheltered by vestigial west Atlantic ridging.  That feature is being fed by the combination of larger-scale latent heat injection of the far E Pacific and likely exaggerated by the present absorption of hurricane Sandra. 

 

 

The flow construction is down stream of the present quasi-closed low/ridge (REX) couplet situated between the Canadian/U.S.

 

 

This present flow type is going to be changing... As it does, all indications are that it should at least in part suffice the expectation from a strong +PNA.   

 

Presently, this is not that construction  It will take time to evolve, and as the first week of December surpasses it would not surprise me if we see more and more potential for cyclogenesis/and/or larger scale precipitation events for the East emerge ... or perhaps "re"-emerge in the more dependable operational model types.  The weight of the GEFs ensemble members are highly clustered around a clear and coherent/robust +PNA, so having no implication subtended from the eastern Pac ...across N/A, considering the intense continental scaled baroclinic potential that has been instilled, would be the rarefied result.  

 

And, in keeping withe the +PNA as expectation, both the CDC and CPC (respectively left to right below) show that the domain space has just barely risen to neutral, and going forward we have yet to evolve things along the prognostic; but it's in the mail! 

 

 

 

Sometimes these things ...sort of cross a tolerance threshold and then cave all at once toward whatever is more statistically correlated.  But, given to the still rising PNA and that much of that rise-mass has yet to have happened, I really would not rely to heavily upon runs that seem to be going out of physical means to decapitate anything from happening... (Euro guilt...)

 

For one, the continuity is particularly horrid... perhaps that just underscores the ideas here that going into a phase transition the models are typically less reliable in general.  

 

Having said all that... yeah, it is true that there are no 1::1 correlations in the atmosphere. It is possible to have very loud coherent statistical indicators fail to meet with verification - sometimes, though rarer, the less correlated result takes place.  But, going along the course of least regret, it's tough for me see this sort of regime change depicted above as taking place completely without consequence.  Moreover, what exactly those are ... I don't think we've even seen modeled yet.  And the present activity over the nation's midriff may only mark the beginning of a series of events...

 

Time will tell... but be patient. 

[eduggs]

I wonder if there's a chance the midweek threat could be revived.  If that bowling ball ULL traverses a little further southeast, it might open the door to some coastal redevelopment.  Maybe W or CNE could get some flakes as the cold air moves in from the west.  Odds are against it but this is still within the time period that midrange guidance loses and rediscovers threats.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Great posts John and eduggs, but the stakes are not high for me personally because its down the drain, regardless imby.

Not all intended to impugn the collective effort, though......just my personal sentiment.

[Typhoon Tip]

Great posts John and eduggs, but the stakes are not high for me personally because its down the drain, regardless imby.

Not all intended to impugn the collective effort, though......just my personal sentiment.

 

I understand that we have different mindsets using this forum, yes...  

 

I've grown to accept that some on here, those of that ilk often are Mets too .. , are really only involved/motivated for the awesome spectacle of snow falling out of window.  

 

There are also a few of us that like the science and sophistication of using the science.  It's just whom ever you are... 

 

Perhaps if this sort of transition/phase change were to take place a month from now, we'd be talking more white than wet.  It's not even out of the question that any as yet to emerge, modeled storminess that results from all this ...might take on some of that character anyway.  

 

It would interesting for anecdote if last year's snowy TG and warm Xmass, ...were to somehow reverse - ha

[eduggs]

 

The CMC has some midweek snow for C and NNE.  It doesn't have much support from other models but this time period showed promise several days ago when this thread was launched.  It's not out of the question that we move back towards that solution.  I feel like we see that sometimes.  Threat appears around day 10, disappears around days 9 - 6 or so, and then reappears in the day 4-6 time frame.  I don't love the synoptic setup but at least it looks active and we might be able to sneak something out of the next 6-10 days.  So many of our snowstorms appear out of imperfect looking setups.

[Typhoon Tip]

snow cmc.jpg

 

The CMC has some midweek snow for C and NNE.  It doesn't have much support from other models but this time period showed promise several days ago when this thread was launched.  It's not out of the question that we move back towards that solution.  I feel like we see that sometimes.  Threat appears around day 10, disappears around days 9 - 6 or so, and then reappears in the day 4-6 time frame.  I don't love the synoptic setup but at least it looks active and we might be able to sneak something out of the next 6-10 days.  So many of our snowstorms appear out of imperfect looking setups.

 

Ed',

thanks for these efforts ... seems there isn't much interest in following 'implicit threats' as folks want to be served awesome model art, explicitly.. ha.  If they don't see it actually on the charts, they take their willingness ball and go home pouting..  

 

But yeah, that is a good point re systems tending to disappear then reappear.  It's almost sinusoidal how that occurs.  This is not an assumption or expectation for a return in this case, only that indeed  ...the CMC is attempting to play that model trope.  We'll see.. It's funny though, that D6 now has some minor continuity over the last three cycles... < 6.5 ..7   It may be a race between dynamical cooling and advection -vs- QPF kinematics shutting off as that progressive cyclone moves out.   But again ... not intending to be caught up in details... These type of solutions may just be resulting out of the native numerical instability during phase transitions in general, and are thus phantoms.  Lord knows the CMC can't be trusted..  

[eduggs]

Ed',

thanks for these efforts ... seems there isn't much interest in following 'implicit threats' as folks want to be served awesome model art, explicitly.. ha.  If they don't see it actually on the charts, they take their willingness ball and go home pouting..  

 

But yeah, that is a good point re systems tending to disappear then reappear.  It's almost sinusoidal how that occurs.  This is not an assumption or expectation for a return in this case, only that indeed  ...the CMC is attempting to play that model trope.  We'll see.. It's funny though, that D6 now has some minor continuity over the last three cycles... < 6.5 ..7   It may be a race between dynamical cooling and advection -vs- QPF kinematics shutting off as that progressive cyclone moves out.   But again ... not intending to be caught up in details... These type of solutions may just be resulting out of the native numerical instability during phase transitions in general, and are thus phantoms.  Lord knows the CMC can't be trusted..  

Thanks for your efforts in highlighting the time period.

 

As for midweek, I think the QPF mechanisms will shut off before sufficient cold arrives.  But it's not such a long shot that it doesn't bear watching.

 

And there's still the end of week threat as well.  Cold is marginal throughout the time period, but at our latitude along the coastal plain it almost always is. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

I understand that we have different mindsets using this forum, yes...  

 

I've grown to accept that some on here, those of that ilk often are Mets too .. , are really only involved/motivated for the awesome spectacle of snow falling out of window.  

 

There are also a few of us that like the science and sophistication of using the science.  It's just whom ever you are... 

 

Perhaps if this sort of transition/phase change were to take place a month from now, we'd be talking more white than wet.  It's not even out of the question that any as yet to emerge, modeled storminess that results from all this ...might take on some of that character anyway.  

 

It would interesting for anecdote if last year's snowy TG and warm Xmass, ...were to somehow reverse - ha

I enjoy the science if its a notable event, but this is the epitome of pedestrian.

[40/70 Benchmark]

If it were an implicit snow, or otherwise impressive implicit threat, there would be more interest.

A Sox game during a last place season on a Tuesday night in July probably will not garner the same interest that a post season tilt will.

Doesn't make us bad people, or any less intelligent.

[CoastalWx]

We need a storm.

[weathafella]

Whomever has an agenda can potentially slap people around come verification.

[J.Spin]

I understand that we have different mindsets using this forum, yes... 

 

Well, know that there are those of us who very much enjoy these threads – this is why many of us pay our subscriptions and come here – to read the thoughts of smart meteorologists and get New England- or Northeast-focused weather information that isn’t available elsewhere.  I get it that this forum is just a social thing for a lot of people, but listening to weenies bemoan why they didn’t get their once-in-a-decade white thanksgiving that they nonsensically expect to be the norm, and b**ch about what has to be one of the more glorious stretches of thanksgiving weather in a while isn’t much of a draw.  Most of the meteorologists are busy trying to rationally counter the daily knee-jerk reactionary weenie comments to the flip flop of each run of the long- and medium-range models, so this thread is a breath of fresh air.  Even (what I think are supposed to be) the monthly analysis threads read like just a bunch of banter at times like these when there’s no prospective storm getting actual analysis.  As is often the case, Tip flagged this period several days ago, and discusses the available science as objectively as possible to counteract some of the silly, emotionally-driven stuff that’s out there.  I get it that some of the other meteorologists or even the hobbyists could do some of this stuff, but Tip’s actually taking the time to start threads and do it, so I’m not sure why the level of appreciation isn’t higher.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Whomever has an agenda can potentially slap people around come verification.

Amen.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Well, know that there are those of us who very much enjoy these threads – this is why many of us pay our subscriptions and come here – to read the thoughts of smart meteorologists and get New England- or Northeast-focused weather information that isn’t available elsewhere.  I get it that this forum is just a social thing for a lot of people, but listening to weenies bemoan why they didn’t get their once-in-a-decade white thanksgiving that they nonsensically expect to be the norm, and b**ch about what has to be one of the more glorious stretches of thanksgiving weather in a while isn’t much of a draw.  Most of the meteorologists are busy trying to rationally counter the daily knee-jerk reactionary weenie comments to the flip flop of each run of the long- and medium-range models, so this thread is a breath of fresh air.  Even (what I think are supposed to be) the monthly analysis threads read like just a bunch of banter at times like these when there’s no prospective storm getting actual analysis.  As is often the case, Tip flagged this period several days ago, and discusses the available science as objectively as possible to counteract some of the silly, emotionally-driven stuff that’s out there.  I get it that some of the other meteorologists or even the hobbyists could do some of this stuff, but Tip’s actually taking the time to start threads and do it, so I’m not sure why the level of appreciation isn’t higher.

It was noted that he did a great job outlining it, but the fact of the matter is that now that the threat doesn't hold much wintery appeal for the vast majority of posters, interest has waned.

That is about as objective, and empirically based as it comes.

It is no one's fault, not a reflection on John....just human nature.

 

I get that maybe a 1-2 SD PNA ridge, or whatever, is anomalous, but sensibly there will be nothing anomalous about it.

Again, has nothing to do with who started it.....if it were me who started this thread, the same thing would have happened.