Yellow alert! Archembault, Yellow alert: ~ November 29 thru December 7

[CoolMike]

GEM, GFS, and Euro all have something around hour 216 so that's something at least.

 

I'll be watching every model run for the next few days - something I haven't done in a while.

[Typhoon Tip]

wow ... we actually have run to run continuity kicking in here - 

 

huh

[Randy4Confluence]

'03-'04 begs to differ.....as does '92-'93

Jan. '04, although brutally cold, was basically snowless, as was Feb. March had one event but that was about it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jan. '04, although brutally cold, was basically snowless, as was Feb. March had one event but that was about it.

He said early December snow leads to a warm winter.....I know'04 was cold and dry.

[CoastalWx]

Definitely not a setup that gets me excited, but it is pretty far out. 

[Typhoon Tip]

Definitely not a setup that gets me excited, but it is pretty far out.

Yeah it's going to have to marinate for a while guys. Frankly the whole time is likely to be actively between the 29th and December 7 or so you know it doesn't have to be this one event

[CoolMike]

Looking like an elevated NNE event on 18z guidance now. NNE mountains had a few of these work out last year. Rooting for snow at PF's picnic tables.

[Damage In Tolland]

As expected.. setup favored far north ..Now the ens and , op.. Say ..We rain

[klw]

PF, MReaves, and I approve of this message.

 

[CoastalWx]

Oh noes.

[40/70 Benchmark]

As expected.. setup favored far north ..Now the ens and , op.. Say ..We rain

It will probably sink back south imo......congrats, Dendrite.

[Chrisrotary12]

No one locked in the 0z GFS yet? 

[Damage In Tolland]

It will probably sink back south imo......congrats, Dendrite.

With a +EPO , AO and NAO and raging STJ.. Why would it sink back south?

[40/70 Benchmark]

With a +EPO , AO and NAO and raging STJ.. Why would it sink back south?

....and those modalities and nne snow events are mutually exclusive?

Unless the confluence is gone (haven't looked), I don't see why nne would not snow.

 

I doubt this cuts through NYS, but we will rain.

[Damage In Tolland]

....and those modalities and nne snow events are mutually exclusive?

Unless the confluence is gone (haven't looked), I don't see why nne would not snow.

I doubt this cuts through NYS, but we will rain.

Theres a good chance this ends up being a congrats DTW type storm.. But we'll see .

[40/70 Benchmark]

Theres a good chance this ends up being a congrats DTW type storm.. But we'll see .

Doubt it.....yea, we will see.

[40/70 Benchmark]

All this means as that we aren't experiencing a modoki el nino.

Welcome to last July.

[CoastalWx]

All this means as that we aren't experiencing a modoki el nino.

Welcome to last July.

 

I mean this isn't exactly a surprise...lol. If we do have an active December, the odds would increase for the interior to see an event or two, despite a December being AN.

[Typhoon Tip]

Quickish update ...

 

Not much has changed.  Still an > median probability for storminess during the title time span (~ NOV 29 - DEC 7 or so).

 

What that will entail is still exotically too early to tell.  Presently... or I should say, most recently, the GFS operational is attempting to phase the lead (DEC 1) trough/closed low ejection out of the Rockies' region a little more curvi-linear-like with the attitude of the SPV situated over NE/E Canada.  This 'linking' allows for less stream-wise blocking and that encourages the deep layer structure to then avail of +NAO in turning left a bit sooner than model ideas of 24 hours ago. 

 

Can't say that's all not going to happen.  Just as much as the handling of that southern Canada mean jet, and any interaction with that SPV (however indirect/direct) could all be (and probably is) in error.  This is an intriguingly complex scenario. The +NOA circulation type was so massive in previous runs, that it's SW curvi-linear arc was imposing a strong polar jet N of Superior, but now .. subtle weakening/contraction of that features girth is allowing said jet to lift N enough for a Lakes transit scenario.  Still, enough system leading confluence and sfc polar high response may not mean a warm sector, either.  We'll have to see...

 

And, as others are aware .. the following system is now becoming more vivid in model illustrations ... Case in point, it may be false and probably is for a variety of [enter tropes], but suffices the idea (I think) that the 10 days or so overall caries potential.  

 

In the very least, ennui shouldn't be an issue ... 

[Heisy]

It actually looks like the period to watch for this might be Dec 5-7th....Models seemed to flip the script as this Dec 1 event looks like a pure Lakers cutter, but mods are picking up on a wave right after this and some are blowing it up. 

[Typhoon Tip]

It actually looks like the period to watch for this might be Dec 5-7th....Models seemed to flip the script as this Dec 1 event looks like a pure Lakers cutter, but mods are picking up on a wave right after this and some are blowing it up. 

 

As is...and relative to the 2-cycle 'trend', agreed.  

 

Relative to the 2-day's worth of modeling?  not so sure.  It's still D5 +   I figure most know this, but reminding ... that subtleties that caused/attributed to more commitment to the EC in previous runs could easily return. Too early to discount that entirely...

 

And yes ... it shouldn't surprise us that there are additional features to watch.  

[Typhoon Tip]

Best takeaway:    With that much western ridge/+PNA phase change, SOMEthing should happen in that time frame.

 

That may be the most succinct update there is, heh

[40/70 Benchmark]

Quickish update ...

 

Not much has changed.  Still an > median probability for storminess during the title time span (~ NOV 29 - DEC 7 or so).

 

What that will entail is still exotically too early to tell.  Presently... or I should say, most recently, the GFS operational is attempting to phase the lead (DEC 1) trough/closed low ejection out of the Rockies' region a little more curvi-linear-like with the attitude of the SPV situated over NE/E Canada.  This 'linking' allows for less stream-wise blocking and that encourages the deep layer structure to then avail of +NAO in turning left a bit sooner than model ideas of 24 hours ago. 

 

Can't say that's all not going to happen.  Just as much as the handling of that southern Canada mean jet, and any interaction with that SPV (however indirect/direct) could all be (and probably is) in error.  This is an intriguingly complex scenario. The +NOA circulation type was so massive in previous runs, that it's SW curvi-linear arc was imposing a strong polar jet N of Superior, but now .. subtle weakening/contraction of that features girth is allowing said jet to lift N enough for a Lakes transit scenario.  Still, enough system leading confluence and sfc polar high response may not mean a warm sector, either.  We'll have to see...

 

And, as others are aware .. the following system is now becoming more vivid in model illustrations ... Case in point, it may be false and probably is for a variety of [enter tropes], but suffices the idea (I think) that the 10 days or so overall caries potential.  

 

In the very least, ennui shouldn't be an issue ... 

I'm with you....my money is on that phase failing to some degree and this nailing nne.

[Baroclinic Zone]

All this means as that we aren't experiencing a modoki el nino.

Welcome to last July.

I have no idea where the term Modoki came/comes from in MET but all I can think of is Japanese anime when I read it.

[40/70 Benchmark]

lol That is what it is derived form

[JC-CT]

It means "Nino, sort of"

[Ginx snewx]

It means "Nino, sort of"

literally could be translated into USA slang " different but the same"

[Damage In Tolland]

Not 1..but now 2 big rainstorms to Maine next week !!

[Ginx snewx]

Not 1..but now 2 big rainstorms to Maine next week !!

?

[Typhoon Tip]

Amazingly hideous 12z operational Euro run as it pertains to the topics heretofore.. Just stunningly awful.  Fascinating how bad actually  - worthy of honor in its own rite.  Pretty much 0.00 correlation to this threads discussion points, virtually everywhere.  

 

The only thing I'll add to that sardonic - tho it may actually be more truth than hyperbole as a description ... - is that this oper. run has also, 0.00 continuity as it regards most features beyond D 5, compared to those same sources/trends...etc.  Therein could be a brighter red flag than the typical extended beacon of suspicion. 

 

I dunno - holding serve for Nov 29 - Dec 7 until I see a broader more convincing trend from other tools, suggesting the red herring.