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Yellow alert! Archembault, Yellow alert: ~ November 29 thru December 7

Typhoon Tip

By Typhoon Tip,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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I'm not convinced of anything.  You're already calling for a rainer here and a snowstorm for NNE.  That's a bit premature don't you think?  I see the teleconnectors support a phase change system.  Whether or not that pans out remains to be seen.  If there is a storm it could cut west, could cut east, could go over us.  There is nothing to support any particular track of a possible storm.

 

Agreed ... 

 

and folks - remember, the impetus of this was recognizing what he just said above, "support a phase change system"  and nothing more. The disclaimer at the top even says this didn't discuss p-types and so forth or a detailed nature.  Just that probability is increasing for a significant event - period. 

 

I realize the the consensus here doesn't care about objectivity beyond the scope of wintry affairs ... haha, but unfortunately, we're stil in gin up mode. 

 

Also, Kevin, ...there is blocking... the preceding time frames leading feature a lot of confluence/zonal flow over and across southern SE Canada.  And in fact, leads to the development of 1032 polar high centered here:

 

post-904-0-85740900-1448298486.jpg  

 

I explained clear terms that there is a cold low level source - not sure what is missing there

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Agreed ... 

 

and folks - remember, the impetus of this was recognizing what he just said above, "support a phase change system"  and nothing more. The disclaimer at the top even says this didn't discuss p-types and so forth or a detailed nature.  Just that probability is increasing for a significant event - period. 

 

I realize the the consensus here doesn't care about objectivity beyond the scope of wintry affairs ... haha, but unfortunately, we're stil in gin up mode. 

 

Also, Kevin, ...there is blocking... the preceding time frames leading feature a lot of confluence/zonal flow over and across southern SE Canada.  And in fact, leads to the development of 1032 polar high centered here:

 

post-904-0-85740900-1448298486.jpg  

 

I explained clear terms that there is a cold low level source - not sure what is missing there

 

 

I did get a glimpe of the GFS and it did show some nice confluence developing over Quebec.

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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speaking just relative to the Euro solution...

 

The heights in the deep S-SE are too high to allow for much latitudinal orientation of the flow given to the ridge amplitude in the west only going so-so in response to expected +PNA arrival. 

 

That could, in its self, be a correctable structure.. We have a recurving typhoon and it's still not abundantly clear the uptake of that is being registered fully as these teleconnector changes were modeled before the presence of that particular entity and D7-10 (as if we have to say it) is what it is...

 

In any case, because of that the Euro is very fast with it's system translation.  That solution would favor midriff NE and point E.  

Oh wait - duh, those are 24 hourly panels.  'k, so for perhaps (est) 9-12 hours the region gets dynamically pummeled on that solution.  The 850mb starts out marginal and the next frame it' -10C at ORH, with a low going under 980 in the Gulf o Maine is not rain.  sorry.  

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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PF special, nor a last minute dash se (RIP Messenger) would surprise me....

Those will always be the Messenger specials...every interior poster knows that well. The subtle slips SE, culminating with the hourly RAP/HRRR runs where every one cuts the western QPF, pointed out so adamantly by the late Cweat. RIP.

Anyway, be interesting to see where it goes as the models have had something for a couple days now. It looks very close though to being rain even up here...though gets kicked east just in time to end up over PWM. I could also see that become a western NY into Ontario special if the low just continues up through New England.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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speaking just relative to the Euro solution...

The heights in the deep S-SE are too high to allow for much latitudinal orientation of the flow given to the ridge amplitude in the west only going so-so in response to expected +PNA arrival.

That could, in its self, be a correctable structure.. We have a recurving typhoon and it's still not abundantly clear the uptake of that is being registered fully as these teleconnector changes were modeled before the presence of that particular entity and D7-10 (as if we have to say it) is what it is...

In any case, because of that the Euro is very fast with it's system translation. That solution would favor midriff NE and point E.

Oh wait - duh, those are 24 hourly panels. 'k, so for perhaps (est) 9-12 hours the region gets dynamically pummeled on that solution. The 850mb starts out marginal and the next frame it' -10C at ORH, with a low going under 980 in the Gulf o Maine is not rain. sorry.

You really just need to pay for the data and look at it every 3-6 hours instead of trying to use the 24 hour panels. It's worth the $20...though I can get supplemented by work, I still pay for it outside of ski season.

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

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Those will always be the Messenger specials...every interior poster knows that well. The subtle slips SE, culminating with the hourly RAP/HRRR runs where every one cuts the western QPF, pointed out so adamantly by the late Cweat. RIP.

Anyway, be interesting to see where it goes as the models have had something for a couple days now. It looks very close though to being rain even up here...though gets kicked east just in time to end up over PWM. I could also see that become a western NY into Ontario special if the low just continues up through New England.

I do not think you will rain unless we see rather dramatic changes over se Canada.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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Euro ensembles are actually somewhat suppressed...at least relative to several of these OP solutions seen. Has a mean high over Maine with a low over the BM.

 

Keep in mind this is like 204 hours, lol.

 

That's probably better than seeing a cutter right now, haha.  There are probably a bunch of ensembles that don't even have a low, though I haven't checked 'em yet.

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powderfreak

powderfreak

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I do not think you will rain unless we see rather dramatic changes over se Canada.

 

Yeah I'm just going through the motions because we know a day 9 model isn't going to be right.  So it's gotta go one way or the other, lol.

 

Or it just disappears all together as a weak low moving of the Carolina coast.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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That's probably better than seeing a cutter right now, haha.  There are probably a bunch of ensembles that don't even have a low, though I haven't checked 'em yet.

 

 

Even the ensembles right now aren't of much use. I think all they can tell us is that there is a better than average chance of having a storm within 500 miles of us.

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