Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Super windy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Today's 12z GFS is beyond hideous with it's cold and dry and the occasional cutter, I would want spring come February if that happens. Good it changes every run but 0z ECM didn't inspire confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Today's 12z GFS is beyond hideous with it's cold and dry and the occasional cutter, I would want spring come February if that happens. Good it changes every run but 0z ECM didn't inspire confidence.The warm/wet and cold/dry pattern is inevitable imo. STJ rules the show this year (El Nino) even tho some folks will deny this. Suppress it south with arctic outbreaks and we're dry, pop a SE ridge with warmth and we get the precip as storm track shifts North. Northern jet is non-existant with little reflection in the lr ens means that this will change. This winter is going to frustrate alot of folks. I do think still we get a 7-10 day window in mid-Feb where things come together, but honestly, Im not expecting much more than that. Hope Im wrong but fear I may be correct....which is rare so take my opinion with a grain of salt, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Agreed. Even in some of our favorite Nino winters, such as 02-03 and 09-10, January was kind of uneventful -- other than occasional clipper snows. I'm not saying we get shut out this month, but I'm not looking for any big snows (6" or more) until Feb. As Ralph said above, I hope I'm wrong and we get buried sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Could have a threat day 7 for the interior if some things change. Would need the first system to push further east to get the cold air towards the coast. The problem with this is that too far east, and the system misses completely OTS. Would be a thread the needle type storm and those rarely work out. As of now, it looks like a rainstorm apps cutter but a subtle change to the east would get the interior in on some snows. The coast getting snow in this set up would be miraculous imo but stranger things have happened... At least it's something to track as after that we are looking cold and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Could have a threat day 7 for the interior if some things change. Would need the first system to push further east to get the cold air towards the coast. The problem with this is that too far east, and the system misses completely OTS. Would be a thread the needle type storm and those rarely work out. As of now, it looks like a rainstorm apps cutter but a subtle change to the east would get the interior in on some snows. The coast getting snow in this set up would be miraculous imo but stranger things have happened... At least it's something to track as after that we are looking cold and dry... I agree February may be a winter wonderland but damn a seasonably cold January with arctic outbreaks followed by mild cutters due to a poor pattern will be quite the kick in the nuts after the warmest December on record, especially for peeps like me that like early and mid portion type winters when we have the low sun angle(2001, 2004-05, 2011) as good examples. Then there is the fact I have no measurable on the season which is weighing on me. The pressure is on for this one but alas the last two were great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Supposed to help lead a junior-high school ski trip to Poconos this Sunday. Think it's a rain-out? Freezing rain? I hate to take kids up there and have an ice storm. Any help or speculation is welcome. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Supposed to help lead a junior-high school ski trip to Poconos this Sunday. Think it's a rain-out? Freezing rain? I hate to take kids up there and have an ice storm. Any help or speculation is welcome. Thanks. NWS forecast of low 40's with showers looks good, ECM says there is virtually no chance of frozen Sunday. Heavier showers look to hold off until overnight so probably not a washout. Tough call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No snow at all and through the foreseeable future into January, and my first snow blower in the garage...priceless irony Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 No snow at all and through the foreseeable future into January, and my first snow blower in the garage...priceless ironyYou did this!Down to 16.9, single dry digits here we come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Holy crap! A little under 2 weeks ago, it was 71F (Christmas Eve & Day) IMBY and now I'm down to 20.8F with some gusty winds out of the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Supposed to help lead a junior-high school ski trip to Poconos this Sunday. Think it's a rain-out? Freezing rain? I hate to take kids up there and have an ice storm. Any help or speculation is welcome. Thanks. you should be fine maybe some drizzle during the day. there's no chance of frozen with this system imo. still I would check and see how much terrain is even open up there after the warm december..i was up in new hampshire last week(before their snow of course) and okemo/killington both had under 20 trails open out of 120+, I can't imagine the pocono's are fairing any better...they've probably just now begun to make serious snow due to the weather. No snow at all and through the foreseeable future into January, and my first snow blower in the garage...priceless irony well at least we have a scapegoat for winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 only 13 days out! I think the 18z GFS nails it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 speaking of the 18z gfs, the day 7 storm goes poof. the first system pushes through a bit faster and because of that, it completely changes the H5 setup. major changes compared to 12z though not necessarily good changes. well, good if you don't want a rainstorm. but still real iffy on a snowstorm, other than flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 4, 2016 Share Posted January 4, 2016 Still damn windy....17.9F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 19.2 in NW Chesco with a mid single digits wind chill. What happened to that flurry today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 speaking of the 18z gfs, the day 7 storm goes poof. the first system pushes through a bit faster and because of that, it completely changes the H5 setup. major changes compared to 12z though not necessarily good changes. well, good if you don't want a rainstorm. but still real iffy on a snowstorm, other than flurries. The changes were acceptable they bring Jan 96 at 312hrs good fantasy for four more hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 19.2 in NW Chesco with a mid single digits wind chill. What happened to that flurry today? It blew south and the sun interrupted everything.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Took a quick stroll....definite wind burn. 17.1F... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 5, 2016 Author Share Posted January 5, 2016 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 15.6F....falling quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 13.2 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 15.2F....I want 12F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
540line Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 11.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 The bottom fell out here. 15.3F and the damn winds still kicking! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 14.8F....you definitely feel it w/the wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 Temp down to 13.9 here in NW Chesco Wind just gusted to 24mph high for the day low chill also just hit at 5.1 below zero For those that like winter...and snow me thinks there is a very interesting period starting next week and through February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 11.7F - took until January 4th to kill the last remaining flowers out front Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 11.6 Brrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 5, 2016 Share Posted January 5, 2016 11.7F - took until January 4th to kill the last remaining flowers out front There are a lot of folks around me with knock-out roses in full bloom. Those flowers will be perfectly frozen in place! Down to 14.4F and still falling (and this ain't even radiational cooling). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.