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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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Dead calm here.....when is all this wind expected?

Should probably see the winds pick up after 4:00pm. Hope it's no big deal. I spent Saturday in the yard picking up a winter's worth of branches -- I don't feel like doing that again this weekend! :axe:

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looks like the area will see a low topped squall line this evening along the front. you can see it forming in central PA. we should get several hours of sunshine in too so possibly some isolated severe reports with the shear overhead. not much instability around after this morning's rain/clouds.

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MD for this afternoon, pretty much what I said :lol:

 

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0327   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK   1246 PM CDT FRI APR 01 2016   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHERN NEW   ENGLAND   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY    VALID 011746Z - 011945Z   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT   SUMMARY...A BROKEN BAND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY   ORGANIZE THIS AFTERNOON FROM NORTHERN VIRGINIA TO SOUTHERN NEW   ENGLAND. SOME THREAT FOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND A MARGINALLY   SEVERE HAIL REPORT OR TWO IS EXPECTED. WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY   UNLIKELY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN   THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION.   DISCUSSION...RECENT SATELLITE AND RADAR MOSAIC IMAGERY DEPICT A BAND   OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS STRETCHING FROM WESTERN NEW   ENGLAND SOUTHWESTWARD TO WEST VIRGINIA. MID-LEVEL ASCENT FROM A   PASSING IMPULSE...AS WELL AS SOME SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG/NEAR A   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...ARE LIKELY AIDING THIS CONVECTION. AS LOW-LEVEL   CONVERGENCE ADVANCES EASTWARD...DEVELOPING CELLS WILL ENCOUNTER A   MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT...CHARACTERIZED BY DEW   POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 500-800   J/KG. SUCH DESTABILIZATION IS BEING AIDED BY A CONSIDERABLE   CLEARING/THINNING OF CLOUD COVER ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION.   WHILE THE VERTICAL DISTRIBUTION OF BUOYANCY SUGGESTS UPDRAFT   ACCELERATION SHOULD NOT BE TOO STRONG...LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS   /I.E. AMPLE UNIDIRECTIONAL SHEAR/ SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR SMALL   BOWING SEGMENTS AND STORM SPLITS. WHERE DIURNAL HEATING HAS RESULTED   IN STEEPER LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...EFFICIENT DOWNWARD TRANSPORT OF   STRONG FLOW ALOFT SHOULD FAVOR A FEW DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THIS   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. ALTHOUGH HAIL GROWTH SHOULD BE LIMITED   BY A LACK OF GREATER BUOYANCY ALOFT...PLENTIFUL DEEP-LAYER SHEAR   WILL PROMOTE MID-LEVEL ROTATION AND PERHAPS A COUPLE SEVERE HAIL   REPORTS. WHILE WATCH ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY NOT   ANTICIPATED...CONDITIONS WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR A POTENTIAL   INCREASE IN THE THREAT...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE STRENGTH OF THE   KINEMATIC FIELD.
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You have about as good of luck with thunderstorms as I do. It's amazing how year after year the same areas get hit and the same areas miss out...

 

I hope it's not a trend with T-storms this Spring/Summer...uggh.

 

When I was growing up it seemed to T-storm every afternoon during Summer. And "good ones"....not now.

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