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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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Ralph strongly disagree EPS ops at 12z have more 2" or more members than previous run....I think a moderate event is still on the table...

To each their own I suppose. The 12z EPS mean is a weak slp off the SC/GA border that heads ENE to just North of Bermuda. The 12z GEFS means has a weak slp off of FL that heads ENE to just North of Bermuda. The 12z GEPS means is hardly a LP reflection but travels from the FL Keys to Bermuda. Im not sure how any of those scenarios would yield a moderate event for the region, but maybe Im overlooking something obvious that you are seeing?

Edit: and like clockwork, the 0z guidance comes in looking slightly better with the GFS op and GEFS mean giving philly overunning light snows with mixing during the day Friday but very light and would have a tough time accumulating. The gefs is actually a bit farther N and W of the op. The ggem op is an accumulating snow quick-hit event for SE PA with a coastal slp. Its like a tale of 2 model suites lately....0z giveth while 12z taketh away.....cant figure that out for the life of me.

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Ralph

In looking back into my Chester County records there was a big event that was mainly rain to the east toward NJ but with 23.5" falling out here in NW Chesco from Feb 23, 1987. Otherwise no other events in March or April of 87. There were a few minor events in March in 86 and even 1.1" fell on April 23, 1986

Hope that helps!

Paul

And that 2 feet fell between midnight and daybreak as I recall.    5 inches per hour and thundersnow.   Wet, heavy snow.

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My last post had me reminiscing to a few years back...

I believe that it may be time to "re-school" Old Man Winter once again!!!

vvvvv Bump (from 3 years ago) vvvvv

NOTICE:

Let it be known that on this 7th day of March, 2013, upon review and consensus and, as set forth by this Review Board, "VERY Old Man Winter" (student) has been expelled due to failing grades for his performance during the winters of 2011-12 & 2012-13!

Upon his successful completion of (sweltering) Summer School courses in "Philly Area Winter Meteorology" and a written commitment to over-perform during the Winter of 2013-14 ad infinitum, his records will be examined by Head Master (aka "HM") to determine his eligibility for re-admittance!

"Mother Nature" is hereby required to acknowledged and sign receipt of this Notice!!

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I'm very thankful, great for business. The blizzard was fun too, I'll take this yearly.

Amazingly we are at or above normal for the year snowise through many locations Richmond DCA to BWI to PHL to NYC. Now without the Blizzard I would agree 22 60+ days 65mph winds with tornadoes in Feb would have been hard to swollow. Outside of the blizzard we most along I-95 would have not cracked 6" so Im thankful for the ONE HIT WONDER WINTER 2015-2016 it sounds like a new thread to close the winter books on Friday.

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There's no way to spin it ... this was not a good winter. Still, I'm glad we had the blizzard. At least we had something to track for a week and were rewarded with a memorable storm. Sure, it was just one storm, but I'll take it over winters like, 97-98, 01-02, 11-12, to name a few.

 

Here's hoping there's a "Nino hangover" next year and we can sneak something in before the next full bore Nina.

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Amazingly we are at or above normal for the year snowise through many locations Richmond DCA to BWI to PHL to NYC. Now without the Blizzard I would agree 22 60+ days 65mph winds with tornadoes in Feb would have been hard to swollow. Outside of the blizzard we most along I-95 would have not cracked 6" so Im thankful for the ONE HIT WONDER WINTER 2015-2016 it sounds like a new thread to close the winter books on Friday.

Strong El Nino. I was hoping for at least one biggie and it paid off. Just like '83 with the big snow.

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The 83 blizzard was better IMO. Probably because I was shorter, younger and received mega days off from school. It was more windy as well if I recall correctly. I remember some big ass drifts...  

Yes where I lived in Northeast Philly the drifts were easily 6-9 feet that is saying something in the caravans between the row homes known as drive ways where the Gas Man would BANG ON THE GARAGE DOOR 671!!!  GAS MAN!!!  I too was shorter and life was simpler!

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The 83 blizzard was better IMO. Probably because I was shorter, younger and received mega days off from school. It was more windy as well if I recall correctly. I remember some big ass drifts...  

The wind with this years blizzard was a fail, and it's more than the fact I was shorter in 1983  :lol: and had a different open landscape. I know somebody with 3 open acres up here and the drifting was not that great. I think the difference if my memory is correct is the 83 storm was attacking a big 1040HP over Maine which gave it a better gradient.

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The blizzard was the #2 storm in my lifetime. We definitely had some wind here too.. Big drifts in spots. Yeah we had maybe 6 inches after it but finishing well above average snow despite it being the 3rd warmest winter if all time makes it far from a bad winter. Without the blizzard yeah, it's a ratter but you can't discount a top 3 storm of all time region wide(save the shore) when accounting for the season... Gotta put the year at a B- with that. Anytime you finish at or above average snow wise with a scorcher of a winter is good to me. Bad would of been if the blizzard didn't occur ot severely underperformed but how can anyone besides the shore say it was just an alright storm?

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is it me or did the 6z GFS just NAM me? LOL. Just when i thought i was out they pull me back in. Well over 1" QPF. I would think with rates and timing, that is mostly frozen for even my area. Does this have traction?

Very little support at the moment even from its own individual ens members. Doesnt mean we can just toss it tho. Will have to see what 12z-0z does then we should have a solid solution.
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Ironic that in this warmest winter ever now into March we get a system suppressed with cold air when the overwhelming trend had been to bring systems NW. Really hating this useless cold wave

 

Poor east New Englander's though having to go from their best winter since the Revolution times to this one   :yikes:

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Ironic that in this warmest winter ever now into March we get a system suppressed with cold air when the overwhelming trend had been to bring systems NW. Really hating this useless cold wave

El Nino lived up to it's reputation in only one regard really....the stj produced some deep, intense storms. Only problem is, they were fish storms this year. We had the one in early Feb (the exact date I can't recall) where we had a bomb that just missed off the coast. The visible satellite looked like a hurricane! Then we will have tomorrow's storm which again looks like an absolute bomb but for the fish. Getting one of these intense El Nino driven storms to hit in mid-winter and take an ideal track for snow is like looking for a needle in a haystack. Y'all can keep your El Nino.....I will take my chances in a La Nina/nada with a more balanced winter than the crap of a winter we endured this year. The Blizzard was great, but in reality we had a 15-day winter this year, at best. El Nino is one big gamble.....high risk, high reward.

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