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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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Worcester, Pa. Bottomed out at 4 degrees this am. Made it up to about 16 this pm. IF the clouds hold off and the winds remain relatively calm we could get pretty cold this pm. Still have a little snow on the ground as well. If we start in the single digits it will take some time to get to 32 tomorrow pm. That could make for a interesting day. I have seen some pretty fast warm ups, but have also seen the cold hang tough here in the nw suburbs of Philly.

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 I have seen some pretty fast warm ups, but have also seen the cold hang tough here in the nw suburbs of Philly.

 

Yeah, you never know. A few years back, in a waa scenario, I went to bed one night with temps in the single digits and woke up the next morning to the low 20's.

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Added to the other thread but will note here, EPS, GEFS, GEPS, GFS op, Euro OP, and CMC op all have a significant SLP moving out of the Gulf of Mexico and coming NNE middle part of next week. Temps, exact track, etc TDB but amazing agreement at this range. Massive ridge out West on steroids.

Ralph, start a thread on this event.

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Ralph, start a thread on this event.

If u believe in superstition, then yes, as long as nobody has started a thread before me, my rule of thumb is about 5 days out.....6 if there is absolute unanimous agreement on a storm signal. The only 2 storm threads I ever started both turned out to be huge snow events, and yes, I am superstitious :-)

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ENS means (GEFS/CMC/EPS) all look decent for next week. Big ridge out West, energy diving into the Tenn/Miss Valley areas, SLP emerging from the GOM. The means all seem to have nudged the SLP a little farther off the coast (save the GEFS) which I will gladly take at this range. 

 

EPS: 

 

ecmwf-ens_z500_mslp_us_10.png

GEFS (the farthest West):

 

gfs-ens_z500_mslp_us_30.png

CMC ens means:

 

gem-ens_z500_mslp_us_34.png

Also, I posted in NYC that I believe it is wise to use the ENS means as a forecasting tool at this range as opposed to bouncing from OP run to OP run every 6 hours or so. Alot less volatility and wild swings with a smoothed ENS means. Fun times ahead.

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