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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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Possible storm next Tuesday? Been showing up for a while now.

12 & 18z gfs storm moves up coast too far off shore but pretty nice at 500mb

12z euro low pressure moves north over NJ pulling in warm air and rain.

12z gem similar to euro but some front end snow

12z ukie thru hr144 looks very promising

Deinitely worth following especially since it's a miller A.

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No rest for the model watching weary GFS continues the idea of a Miller A close call off the coast next Tuesday and the ECM tracks it near the coast and a touch too mild the middle course would be perfect.

Come on we know how it works around here when it gets bleeping cold we usually have a wintery event. So with that in mind I will split the difference with all models we have a significant snow event coming Mon night into Tuesday next week probably mainly snow but flips at the endto mix or rain 6-10" or 8-12" system I-95 north and west less south and east also going with climo here.

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Come on we know how it works around here when it gets bleeping cold we usually have a wintery event. So with that in mind I will split the difference with all models we have a significant snow event coming Mon night into Tuesday next week probably mainly snow but flips at the endto mix or rain 6-10" or 8-12" system I-95 north and west less south and east also going with climo here.

GEFS want to track it over DC like the ECM yeah that would be a snow to rain deal also the retreating high pressure would argue for that outcome but far too early especially this year to make a call  ;)

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I never say this but toss the 12z ECM's cutter torch next week this model has been terrible. Feels good to say that

 

*It's not a cutter more inland runner tracks a strong low from Atlanta to Allentown

 

I sort of agree except the Ukie, from the looks of the 500 mb map, seems to want to cut the surface low as does the euro.  The gfs and ggem both keep the low off the coast. Saturday's 12Z runs should give us a good idea but I'll still be looking at all the runs.

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I never say this but toss the 12z ECM's cutter torch next week this model has been terrible. Feels good to say that

 

*It's not a cutter more inland runner tracks a strong low from Atlanta to Allentown

 

The 0z Sunday GFS and 0z Monday CMC both had a strong low making a left hook once it got to our latitude, which was odd. Too far out obviously, it was just an unusual path and for two models to show it even if one was more inland.

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3" of rain from gfs for tue/wed.  I can't even believe the temp yoyo.  18z monday we're low 20s.  18z tues we hit close to 50 and by 18z Thur we are back down to 20.  (obviously overnight lows still drop below freezing)Rush hour wed morning will be an ice rink.  Any pre-treatment will be gone and morning temps crashing in the 20's will freeze up any wet spots.

 

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