Birds~69 Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 This may be the most annoying setup possible as far as tracking/model runs..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 For those that read the respective thread in the other subforum, I kind of like our little dive bar we have here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 I would choose that 25" Jan 23rd as three 8" SECS every time, getting all of your winter in one day blows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 9, 2016 Share Posted February 9, 2016 Possible storm next Tuesday? Been showing up for a while now. 12 & 18z gfs storm moves up coast too far off shore but pretty nice at 500mb 12z euro low pressure moves north over NJ pulling in warm air and rain. 12z gem similar to euro but some front end snow 12z ukie thru hr144 looks very promising Deinitely worth following especially since it's a miller A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 00Z gfs moved closer to the 12Z euro and ggem. Brings some snow into our area on Tuesday before moving offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Radar kinda looks like crap... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 We use Weather Sentry DTN here where I work. Pretty accurate. According to the long range. After the brutal cold, looks like a slop fest for next Tuesday-Thursday 16-18, then a torch job for the 20th on... Anyone else see this long range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 A mild spike is coming second half of next week, length of this is still to be determined but they seem excited in the New England thread for a good blocking pattern setting up late this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 No rest for the model watching weary GFS continues the idea of a Miller A close call off the coast next Tuesday and the ECM tracks it near the coast and a touch too mild the middle course would be perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 10, 2016 Author Share Posted February 10, 2016 yes, more weenie tracking . gfs coming around to the storm idea finally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 No rest for the model watching weary GFS continues the idea of a Miller A close call off the coast next Tuesday and the ECM tracks it near the coast and a touch too mild the middle course would be perfect. Come on we know how it works around here when it gets bleeping cold we usually have a wintery event. So with that in mind I will split the difference with all models we have a significant snow event coming Mon night into Tuesday next week probably mainly snow but flips at the endto mix or rain 6-10" or 8-12" system I-95 north and west less south and east also going with climo here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Come on we know how it works around here when it gets bleeping cold we usually have a wintery event. So with that in mind I will split the difference with all models we have a significant snow event coming Mon night into Tuesday next week probably mainly snow but flips at the endto mix or rain 6-10" or 8-12" system I-95 north and west less south and east also going with climo here. GEFS want to track it over DC like the ECM yeah that would be a snow to rain deal also the retreating high pressure would argue for that outcome but far too early especially this year to make a call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 Two more like yesterday and a smidge more and I got a 60-50-40" 3 winter string happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I never say this but toss the 12z ECM's cutter torch next week this model has been terrible. Feels good to say that *It's not a cutter more inland runner tracks a strong low from Atlanta to Allentown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I never say this but toss the 12z ECM's cutter torch next week this model has been terrible. Feels good to say that *It's not a cutter more inland runner tracks a strong low from Atlanta to Allentown I sort of agree except the Ukie, from the looks of the 500 mb map, seems to want to cut the surface low as does the euro. The gfs and ggem both keep the low off the coast. Saturday's 12Z runs should give us a good idea but I'll still be looking at all the runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 10, 2016 Share Posted February 10, 2016 I never say this but toss the 12z ECM's cutter torch next week this model has been terrible. Feels good to say that *It's not a cutter more inland runner tracks a strong low from Atlanta to Allentown The 0z Sunday GFS and 0z Monday CMC both had a strong low making a left hook once it got to our latitude, which was odd. Too far out obviously, it was just an unusual path and for two models to show it even if one was more inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 18th gfs. Talk about feast or famine depending on which side of the line you enjoy up on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 0z GFS Lehigh Valley interior PA crush job and SEPA wicked gradient, can't remember last time I saw the gradient going the other way This winter was suppose to feature these type storms we will see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I need 4.2" more this winter to win $25 (need 35" at 30.8"). Hopefully this storm can do it with a quick front end CAD thump before what seems like a low tracking inland Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I need 4.2" more this winter to win $25 (need 35" at 30.8"). Hopefully this storm can do it with a quick front end CAD thump before what seems like a low tracking inland GEFS gets you $25 near MECS for SEPA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Was it east from 18 and/or 12 z runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Was it east from 18 and/or 12 z runs To me this looks like a front end thump over to rain for us. but it was west of both 18 and 12z for the record Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Thanks... Hoping cold can hold (cad or banana high influence)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 I'm feeling good about this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Don't have the maps yet but early reports are the ECM has made a significant jump east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Big jump east major winter storm west of I95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Where you getting your info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 Best snows may be further west in PA that we want but it's a big jump east and change from it's previous runs imo it goes funky with qpf and precip type and should show a better front end snow, many runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 GFS is a disaster. We torch. #Rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 11, 2016 Share Posted February 11, 2016 3" of rain from gfs for tue/wed. I can't even believe the temp yoyo. 18z monday we're low 20s. 18z tues we hit close to 50 and by 18z Thur we are back down to 20. (obviously overnight lows still drop below freezing)Rush hour wed morning will be an ice rink. Any pre-treatment will be gone and morning temps crashing in the 20's will freeze up any wet spots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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