hazwoper Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Everything is trending east and to count on that light precip between the two systems or some sort of norlun is reaching IMO. Just not very excited about this one. EDIT - of course I'll be pulling for it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Everything is trending east and to count on that light precip between the two systems or some sort of norlun is reaching IMO. Just not very excited about this one. EDIT - of course I'll be pulling for it Not sure I agree that "everything is trending East". The slp placement with the SE Coast low has been pretty much consistent but the precip shield had been expanding/shifting West each run (see NAM/SREF/RGEM ). As for the Miller B, I don't really see an East trend there either. Globals are South but the hi-res stuff is shifting the slp/norlun/precip North which has been the trend all winter. I'm with you in that I'm not expecting anything 'major' either, but to just write everything off with a broad statement that everything has trended East is a bit irrational IMHO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z GFS shows what I believe to be an inverted trough Im guessing... EPA jackpot with hours and hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Yeah, the 12Z GFS looks interesting starting @ hr66. But who knows where that inverted trough will actually set up? At least it's something to track over the weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12z GFS snow map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Pocono's bullseye this run GFS is all over the place Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Our friends to the north are confident it is coming north, and to the south that it will be going south This really is the great yo yo snow event of 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 3rd straight run Dr No has us high and dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What exactly are we tracking? Seems like a lot of excitement over a storm that may bring 3-6" over a period of 40 hours making it a grassy surface storm in my opinion. Or am I missing something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 What exactly are we tracking? Seems like a lot of excitement over a storm that may bring 3-6" over a period of 40 hours making it a grassy surface storm in my opinion. Or am I missing something? Very possible we are tracking a couple days of flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I'm hugging the CRAS today.....12z crushes Eastern PA with the SE Coast low. Been really consistent with this fwiw. Probably consistently wrong......but consistent nonetheless. Has little to nothing for second system as the SE Coast low steals the show up the coast :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The CRAP model has never been right, why would it start now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Hey Ralph just for giggles can you post the CRAS it may lift my snow spirits a bit as I work on my Math lesson plans. I love rooting for outliers! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Totally different subject - I saw a Bald Eagle in my back yard late this morning - first time for me. He/she was up in a tree top and while I was debating whether to go in and get my camera, he took off. Awesome! There were a couple of vultures circling and at first I thought it was one of those, as he landed, with the cirrus cloud sky as a backdrop. But his head was white and when he took off I saw the white tail feathers, and could see his body was dark brownish. I was pretty excited. As much as I'd love to see the Sunday/Monday storm come north a bit closer to the coast, if it doesn't I'd just as soon it goes wide right so we can get some separation. I'm thinking our chances could improve for Tuesday/Wednesday in that case. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The CRAP model has never been right, why would it start now? Can't post images now....at work. CRAS nailed Boxing Day prior to any other model fwiw. It hits one about every year, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 CRAS now has support from NAM, RGEM, SREF irt the SE low throwing precip farther West. You can't script this stuff guys! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18Z NAM looks good for all of NJ and extreme E PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 CRAS now has support from NAM, RGEM, SREF irt the SE low throwing precip farther West. You can't script this stuff guys! It will be interesting to see if the mesoscale models see something the globals don't such as the warmer gulf stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And the 18Z GFS keeps the first storm OTS but gives us some snow from the inverted trough. In other words: we ain't any closer at figuring this out. Seriously, I don't know what to root for here? Get the ocean storm to back in more or get it out of the way?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 And the 18Z GFS keeps the first storm OTS but gives us some snow from the inverted trough. In other words: we ain't any closer at figuring this out. Seriously, I don't know what to root for here? Get the ocean storm to back in more or get it out of the way?? 18 GFS is big dump from Allentown to near Wilington with the Norlun low. 7-14 inches off the 18 gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 18 GFS is big dump from Allentown to near Wilington with the Norlun low. 7-14 inches off the 18 gfs. 4" abe off gfsSent from my LG-H900 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 18 GFS is big dump from Allentown to near Wilington with the Norlun low. 7-14 inches off the 18 gfs. Where dat fantasy map from the Brazilian model? I got a bullseye for upper Bucks region of 6-7" and 4-5" to the north and south in a narrow corridor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 ECM including the para is locked into flurries for eastern PA and the GFS locked into an inverted trough and it's just 60hrs one of these is going to look bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Where dat fantasy map from the Brazilian model? I got a bullseye for upper Bucks region of 6-7" and 4-5" to the north and south in a narrow corridor It's more than that. Snow growth looks favorable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacChump Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Totally different subject - I saw a Bald Eagle in my back yard late this morning - first time for me. He/she was up in a tree top and while I was debating whether to go in and get my camera, he took off. Awesome! There were a couple of vultures circling and at first I thought it was one of those, as he landed, with the cirrus cloud sky as a backdrop. But his head was white and when he took off I saw the white tail feathers, and could see his body was dark brownish. I was pretty excited. As much as I'd love to see the Sunday/Monday storm come north a bit closer to the coast, if it doesn't I'd just as soon it goes wide right so we can get some separation. I'm thinking our chances could improve for Tuesday/Wednesday in that case. that's very cool...I saw one in a field off Smithbridge by the Brandywine last year, wonder if it was the same guy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KamuSnow Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 that's very cool...I saw one in a field off Smithbridge by the Brandywine last year, wonder if it was the same guy Could be, he was headed that way.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM teams up with Dr No. GFS is stranded on an island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 NAM teams up with Dr No. GFS is stranded on an island Yea gives 1" liquid to Dc think this is incorrect split the difference Gfs Euro and nam and you have norlun centered in the southern pa counties york lancaster chester delco into Salem Camden and Gloucster Cumberland counties in Nj Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 7, 2016 Share Posted February 7, 2016 Yea gives 1" liquid to Dc think this is incorrect split the difference Gfs Euro and nam and you have norlun centered in the southern pa counties york lancaster chester delco into Salem Camden and Gloucster Cumberland counties in Nj GFS is about to cave. ECM is never this far off base in the short term it would need a 300 mile shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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