Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Long period of light-mod snow... low never closes off. step in the right directionWouldn't the ull not closing off yield more of a progressive CMC solution tho? Unsure how you're considering that a step in the right direction, if you are looking for measurable snow? I suppose there is always more than 1 way to interpret a model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 In regards to early next week, I'm getting a sort of January 25, 2000 feeling about it. So much energy diving South, models having difficulties picking out which will be the main player, etc. Different setup aloft but eerily reminiscent. Have a hunch at this hour that the first wave (the one everyone was pulling to head OTS so the subsequent wave has room to develop) may in fact be the surprise(?) main show. There seems to be more spacing between waves now as the energy starts to get sampled with the latter energy (diving into the Midwest around 60-72 hours) holding back giving spacing to the first wave off the SE Coast while also reducing the effect of it acting as a kicker for it to head OTS. Couple this with the fact nearly every system has come farther N and W, and I would closely watch the system off the SE Coast around D+2. Sorry if confusing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 1.2" on the season outside of the big one lol .2" .3" .7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 12z GFS still not getting it done for next weeks system storm #1 is killing storm #2 so 24 hours of flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Another coastal bullseye with another 0 here in the "interior winter" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Another coastal bullseye with another 0 here in the "interior winter" I feel for ya it's been outrageous for the interior most winters going back how far now 10 years or more this year it's been elevated to epic snow drought status Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 Something is going on in Monmouth county attracting all the snow I believe alien technology responsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I feel for ya it's been outrageous for the interior most winters going back how far now 10 years or more this year it's been elevated to epic snow drought status It started with the February 2006 blizzard and has been accelerating since 2009-10. I've seen three events of 6"+ since the 2006-07 winter. THREE events in NINE years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 It started with the February 2006 blizzard and has been accelerating since 2009-10. I've seen three events of 6"+ since the 2006-07 winter. THREE events in NINE years! WOW that is the definition of absurdity. I would be in a rubber room with snow south scribbled thousands of times on the walls clutching my ancient NOAA cube weather radio calling it my precious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 CMC is a hit for the typical screw zone. Euro is the definition of snow hole Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 I have a flight on tuesday night of PHL so i'm rooting against this one, sorry! Hope the Euro is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So the 18z gfs is as such.SLP #1 comes up the east coast and is south of NS by 18z Mon.SLP #2 is just north of Cleveland at 18z Mon. SLP#3 forms several hundred miles east of NJ by 12z Tues.SLP#4 forms over RI on 06 Wed, with SLP#3 in Canadian Maritimes, and SLP#2 still hanging out by Buffalo.I think we should just all give up looking at models for this storm until sometime on Sunday. I don't think any of them are going to figure all the energies out correctly for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 5, 2016 Share Posted February 5, 2016 So the 18z gfs is as such. SLP #1 comes up the east coast and is south of NS by 18z Mon. SLP #2 is just north of Cleveland at 18z Mon. SLP#3 forms several hundred miles east of NJ by 12z Tues. SLP#4 forms over RI on 06 Wed, with SLP#3 in Canadian Maritimes, and SLP#2 still hanging out by Buffalo. I think we should just all give up looking at models for this storm until sometime on Sunday. I don't think any of them are going to figure all the energies out correctly for this one. Little ahead of myself but did u happen to glance at the setup between 240-264? Also has strong support signal from Euro OP, Euro control, and EPS. Interesting... :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Tuesday will be a non event Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Don't look now but the 4k nam is about 75 miles from making Monday REALLY interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Tuesday will be a non event Next Is it because storm 1 is more of a key player? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 6, 2016 Author Share Posted February 6, 2016 end of the 12z euro looked amazing today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Don't look now but the 4k nam is about 75 miles from making Monday REALLY interesting.Just saw this. Forget the 75 miles....the 4k NAM has already made late Sunday/early Monday really interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 I don't know if storm 1 can tuck any more with that GL low in the way. If it does would those two lows possibly phase? There are so many parts I am way over my head from the science aspect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Light snow for 42hrs on the GFS next week days of snow from an inverted trough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Light snow for 42hrs on the GFS next week days of snow from an inverted trough Which just means we'll end up with a 42hr dry slot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Which just means we'll end up with a 42hr dry slot. 4.5" inches of snow divided into 42hrs vs an increasing Feb sun angle = fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GGEM also has the norlun bullseye over Philly...ity also almost scrapes coastal NJ from the first low. Looks like a 6+" storm for most. Would be nice if this is the appetizer for PDIII Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 GGEM also has the norlun bullseye over Philly...ity also almost scrapes coastal NJ from the first low. Looks like a 6+" storm for most. Would be nice if this is the appetizer for PDIII It's crazy to even entertain the thought of such but I like the look long range and the stars are all aligned for Presidents day. Even Fred on Weather World tonight seemed unusually excited of a big storm prospect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 The thought of counting on a norlun trough is terrifying though, despite the fact the GFS and GGEM have a good storm tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 0z ECM is an even bigger snow hole than 12z hopefully the end game isn't 0 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 Gotta love it. 6z 4k nam hr 51 moves storm 1 slp 150 miles nw and the GL slp 200 miles west but the precip shield for storm 1 retracts 100 miles se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 You cant help but admire the CRAS' consistent enthusiasm in making the SE Coast slp the main player while phasing the midwest energy into said system, lol. The model of consistency, tho likely consistently wrong. Nice eye candy anyway: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 6z NAM 12k fwiw: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6, 2016 Share Posted February 6, 2016 12Z NAM 12k (and others actually) are interesting in that it is trying to tie the two systems together in a sense. Throws precip back from the SE Coast low across SE regions in our subforum and then follows right up with snow from the forming Miller B. Interesting. The plot is thickening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.