RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Come on both you and I know this is heading south and weaker and you and I will be tracking El Nino fueled severe weather in July and we will say remember in January when the silly Euro was giving us 26" of snow...get a drink for the 0z runs a very strong one. Look I need enough snow for the blower is that too much too ask Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Early reports GFS south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 0Z Monday op GFS thru 96 hrs has closed 500 Low over ne TX- Not over MISSOURI or OH like 12z GFS -- HIUGE shift south very good news for those wanting the last several european model runs / EPS to verify Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 no that is good news Early reports GFS south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink I echo this and my biggest concern attm. This El Nino is not going to afford us the North trend at the end that we have grown accustomed to imo. If we do trend to an ots solution tonight and tomorrow....and even Tuesday, is it the be all end all? No. But I prefer where we are at right now with the NAVGEM being the farther South model still clipping us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Headfake GFS looks GOOD - take another drink everyone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Just saw gfs, looks great, game on. Sorry fighting flu. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Headfake GFS looks GOOD - take another drink everyone Yes, I was going to say - if the NYC people like it, we must be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is a snow nuke let's party Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 GFS is a snow nuke let's partyGGEM even better at cursory glance if that is possible. I will have a drink but wont really start partying until midweek. Too much time still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ninety-nine model runs still on the wall! Ninety-nine bottles of beer! Take a glance, there's still a chance; Ninety-eight model runs still on the wall! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Ninety-nine model runs still on the wall! Ninety-nine bottles of beer! Take a glance, there's still a chance; Ninety-eight model runs still on the wall! Hahaha thats great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Hahaha thats great! Thanks just hoping to move time along here. Looks like there was a mini-outage on the site here soon after I posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
raindancewx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On a scale of 1 (nothing) to 10 (blizzard of 1888), looks like somebody will get conditions in the 6-8 range? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Quick wuestion... Ukmet only goes out to 72 hrs.. Unless it's the ukmet hemispheric loop? Correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 On a scale of 1 (nothing) to 10 (blizzard of 1888), looks like somebody will get conditions in the 6-8 range? Difficult to say this far out. Hard to tell an HECS vs SECS this far out and using only models. How exactly do other events do on this scale ? e.i. 2014 Buffalo lake effect, Jan 1996 ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 For most snow lovers this has been a fairly down winter, including many wanting to "cancel" winter after the gfs just erased this storm from a few model runs at day 9. So my question would be, which would feel worse? Going the entire winter without a real credible snow event? Having this event plopped out in front of us and somehow have it fizzle out (i.e. like last years epic fail)?For ultimate weather junkies this coming storm is much better than nothing, because there is at least something to watch and analyze. Those that are snow junkies? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Nothing personal, I'm sure he's a nice guy and all, but TWC better not send Cantore to Philly later this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I like the 6z GFS following the blizzard with another blizzard day 9-10 I will have to get two yardsticks and tape them together Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z run, not as great for us for the 9-10 day period, but it sure does start cranking when it hits Maine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 12z run, not as great for us for the 9-10 day period, but it sure does start cranking when it hits Maine. The huge rainstorm and major flood three days following a blizzard is also an interesting scenario... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 The huge rainstorm and major flood three days following a blizzard is also an interesting scenario... Followed by temps in the singles/low teens. Ouch. I seem to remember a storm like that in the 90s as a kid. Decent snow base, followed by a rain (which flooded streets due to clogged drainage), then a freeze. I was literally able to ice skate in the street around my neighborhood (including uphill in some spots). Asphalt and skate blades don't really like each other though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Today's 12z ECM the biggest computer model run since the internet lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Today's 12z ECM the biggest computer model run since the internet lol yeah looking at these other forums it looks like it could completely torpedo our threat if we get a bad break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 yeah looking at these other forums it looks like it could completely torpedo our threat if we get a bad break. 12z UKMET makes me think it won't be a cataclysmic change possibly a jog further SE though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Seeing good things on Euro thru 96. Huge 500mb trough down to GOM neutral trough axis looks like it is screaming to go neg in later panels. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 In the other subforums there is widespread pandemonium over this Euro 0z Para deal. Its been doing well lately but it looks like its experimental still so I'm not going to jump yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Sorry VA, but I'm gonna be greedy and hope the next run closes off slightly later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I would like to go into stasis hibernation for the next 96hrs, these big runs have become boring where's the fun of having different model camps battling it out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 I would like to go into stasis hibernation for the next 96hrs, these big runs have become boring where's the fun of having different model camps battling it out Is this some sort of offertory confession to the EURO? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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