RedSky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 18z GFS wants to break records for N&W suburbs next weekend. It's like the SYfy channel has hacked into the GFS. 6.5 long days away still nothing but fantasy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 this is not a good by post because anthony as he ONLY post the one map from the CMC that has snow for the NE BIG CITIES In fact the 12z CMC shows a lot of RAIN for I-95 up to NYC the 500 low closed over over ILL/ IND OH and does not drop nearly as far south as the EURO euro EPS or GEFS shows gem_z500_vort_us_26.png gem_T850_us_29.png 850s are sub freezing entire event, 1000-500 thicknesses are ideal, 2m air temps are 33f give or take. Not sure exactly where you are seeing plain rain and "lots of it" on this model run? You would know better than me, so im not saying you are wrong. I just thought as long as thicknesses and 850s are good, it could still snow with above freezing 2m air temps in the low to mid 30s?In any event, isnt it a little early to be discussing rain/snow lines? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 RALPH 12z CMC has the Low over SBY at 168 HRS synoptically if you think having the low on the eastern MD coast like that is good for Middle Atlantic...Heck the 12z OP CMC doesnt not even match its own ensembles for pete sake Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 they never learn Wait for the GFS ensemblesthe operational GFS has not matched its own ensembles for JAN 22-23 for the last several runs I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 18z Gefs takes storm to OBX then ots like most other ens means. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 RALPH 12z CMC has the Low over SBY at 168 HRS synoptically if you think having the low on the eastern MD coast like that is good for Middle Atlantic... Heck the 12z OP CMC doesnt not even match its own ensembles for pete sake 12zggem156.png Agree with the part about a low in SBY being in a piss poor spot for big city snows. However, your statement suggested the CMC verbatim was a mostly rain event which it clearly was not. So we have the op ggem and gfs tucked tight to the coast while the euro, eps, gefs, and geps are all ots.Fun week of tracking coming up! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hey do I see my first dusting tomorrow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Hey do I see my first dusting tomorrow ?Yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 3rd consecutive run that the GFS shows a huge storm for the area next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 GFS OP, while pretty much alone with the CMC, has been consistent recently with its phased coastal hugger for Jan 22-23. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Just saw the Aaron Rodgers pass and GFS run at the same time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Deathband FTW go big or go home this winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the GGEM takes primary to Pittsburgh...thump to heavy rain to period of snow at end verbatim. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 And the GGEM takes primary to Pittsburgh...thump to heavy rain to period of snow at end verbatim. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk I want to say it's good to have some counter balance to the favored route here OTS, but the GGEM is awful Hope the GFS doesn't lose like the Packers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 which is why the op GFS is wrong GFS OP, while pretty much alone with the CMC, has been consistent recently with its phased coastal hugger for Jan 22-23.Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 which is why the op GFS is wrong Implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The Euro wants to give PHL its average annual snowfall in one storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Caution is the word with the ECM OP making this big a move. Too busy a pattern and chaotic Pacific this can still trend in many bad ways. Funny I just saved the 0z ECM snow map and came across one from Christmas day of GFS dumping 12" on 12/30 only five days away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Conservative EuroWX maps have Philly ground zero with 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Conservative EuroWX maps have Philly ground zero with 24" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 image.jpegDamn you bullseye....DAMN YOU! But no, seriously, why cant this be 12 hours out and not 5+ days? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Damn you bullseye....DAMN YOU! But no, seriously, why cant this be 12 hours out and not 5+ days? Didn't a few of last years storms start out this way only to end up jackpotting upstate New York and New England? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 Didn't a few of last years storms start out this way only to end up jackpotting upstate New York and New England? Precisely my point. And already in the back of my head are the models that are showing snow to rain.....while jackpotting up North as you alluded to. I am being EXTREMELY cautious with this system for now. Too much can still go wrong. Not saying it's a trend but it is a little concerning that nearly every model and ens mean tossed the OTS solutions in just 6 hours. Goes to show how quickly track etc can change. I expect TONS of changes with respect to the evolution and final forecast of this system. Expectations tempered and low for now. With that said the 6z GEFS look very nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 For some reason, I like gravitating towards looking at some of the environmental impactors during the periods of uncertainty - e.g., NAO (forecast to go neutral/positive in that timeframe) AO (forecast to go neutral/slightly positive in that timeframe) PNA (forecast to stay positive in that timeframe) MJO (forecast weak and possibly heading towards phase 1 - both op and ens) I.e., Based on the current and forecast, the early part of this week might have been the most optimum time to get a biggun' if the storm were in the vicinity right now, although being in a strong El Nino regime, the typical indicators have varying effect. Otherwise it seems indicators are pointing to warming next weekend, although such a storm could herald a pattern change to the much-advertised torch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 It's one disney map after another for the now day 5 storm. Not getting excited until the vorts responsible crash the Pacific coast 24-36hrs from now and we still have the big storm potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 17, 2016 Share Posted January 17, 2016 The weather's gonna do what the weather's gonna do. I'd feel much more comfortable at this range if next weekend's storm was modeled to be a near miss to our south. My fear is this ends up tracking a little further north and we end up in the 50's with rain. But hey ... It's been an uneventful winter so far and at least we have something to track. Let's just take it one model suite at a time and hope for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink Come on both you and I know this is heading south and weaker and you and I will be tracking El Nino fueled severe weather in July and we will say remember in January when the silly Euro was giving us 26" of snow...get a drink for the 0z runs a very strong one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 18, 2016 Share Posted January 18, 2016 Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Models won't trend south at 0z Nervous about a south trend coming I need a strong drink Ha, you're not the only one edgy about the model runs. I'm waiting for that trend that jackpots the 95 corridor and leaves the Poconos on NW high and dry... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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