AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 People need to stop overreacting to every OP run. Ask yourself 1 question does it still have ensemble support? if your answer is yes then don't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Traditionally Jan 15 is my winter cancel call date. Mine is always Jan 20th but like 1983 this could be a year where we get "The One" that catupaults us to normal yearly snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's funny to watch people freak about the 18Z OTS when the 06Z did the same thing, But the 0Z from last night AND today's 12Z showed BOMBS. I simply look at the 18z gfs and say thats nice you still have the storm and players....NEXT run please LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 same Guy that posted this http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/47503-increasing-threat-of-significant-east-coast-winter-storm-jan-10-11/ just be careful if you decide to get your hopes up at this stage of the game is all I am saying. This pattern is still more likely to disappoint than deliver. I hope we get hammered but if there is a storm I am expecting more wet around here than white right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 If the Jan 22/23 event isn't back by 0Z I am calling "winter cancel" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I’ll wait until early Feb before bailing on winter. I’ve always been in the back-loaded winter camp. Sure, I thought we’d see some snow by now, nothing epic, but a few nickel and dime events. And I am surprised at how few coastals/nor’easters there have been so far. The way I saw this winter unfold was: December would suck, January would be the transition month, and if we were to have a winter, Feb into early March would be our shot. In the back of my mind, the fear of a 97/98 redux has always been there – and it may yet play out that way. But I’m not ready to bail ... yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I’ll wait until early Feb before bailing on winter. I’ve always been in the back-loaded winter camp. Sure, I thought we’d see some snow by now, nothing epic, but a few nickel and dime events. And I am surprised at how few coastals/nor’easters there have been so far. The way I saw this winter unfold was: December would suck, January would be the transition month, and if we were to have a winter, Feb into early March would be our shot. In the back of my mind, the fear of a 97/98 redux has always been there – and it may yet play out that way. But I’m not ready to bail ... yet. I generally agree with this. I am banking on (1) Feb blockbuster to basically soften the blow of a generally warm and wet winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 I generally agree with this. I am banking on (1) Feb blockbuster to basically soften the blow of a generally warm and wet winter. I agree with this as well. Probably one or two 1-3/2-4 inch storms and one blockbuster that gets us to normal snowfall on the year despite it being a pretty crappy winter. With how juiced up these systems have been, if we get the timing with cold air just once, I think we'll get a 14-18+" storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The only bright spot is if you are a homeowner, between the low cost of energy and the warm winter you will have extra money in your bank account. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowwors2 Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The only bright spot is if you are a homeowner, between the low cost of energy and the warm winter you will have extra money in your bank account. Not if the stock market continues to suck more than the weather‼️‼️ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 15, 2016 Author Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z Euro today brings a thaw to the USA by the 23rd. Another model another different solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 12z Euro today brings a thaw to the USA by the 23rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wkd Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The only bright spot is if you are a homeowner, between the low cost of energy and the warm winter you will have extra money in your bank account.[/quoteStrongly agree. Also it's good to see California finally getting rain. They needed this Nino pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 The January 22-23 potential threat is my personal deadline for canceling winter. If we get another sub 990mb LP in an ideal spot with strengthening HP in a decent spot like the GFS OP is showing and end up with rain, this winter is just cursed. Thinking the 18Z GFS OP solution is extremely suspect but then again, the bowling ball cutoff low / warm idea has been hinted at by other models the past few days. The key takeaway here is that there is still a potentially powerful storm on the table progged to affect the Eastern Seaboard. That's about all we can ask for at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ralph the 240 hr EURO looks like a cold front would clear and a storm could ride on the back side of the front... & the 18z GFS shows a MECS for the Mid-Atlantic & us on the 28th...not ready to give up... ...actually I am, this winter sucks but I guess we were due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Ralph the 240 hr EURO looks like a cold front would clear and a storm could ride on the back side of the front... & the 18z GFS shows a MECS for the Mid-Atlantic & us on the 28th...not ready to give up... ...actually I am, this winter sucks but I guess we were due I really dont like the whole 'cancel winter' thing anymore to be honest. I guess I kind of outgrew it so I say Im 'canceling winter' tongue-in-cheek. But with that said, if we get another deep LP taking a near perfect track in mid/late January and get rain, then my confidence in this winter being able to produce will be at an all-time low. Some of the LR progs beyond Jan 23 do look appealing, but are they merely teases? I keep reading from some well-respected posters that after Jan 25 the pattern completely breaks down and we torch severely thru early Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I really dont like the whole 'cancel winter' thing anymore to be honest. I guess I kind of outgrew it so I say Im 'canceling winter' tongue-in-cheek. But with that said, if we get another deep LP taking a near perfect track in mid/late January and get rain, then my confidence in this winter being able to produce will be at an all-time low. Some of the LR progs beyond Jan 23 do look appealing, but are they merely teases? I keep reading from some well-respected posters that after Jan 25 the pattern completely breaks down and we torch severely thru early Feb. I'm rooting for a torch if the 22-23rd threat fails to deliver any snowfall. If every system is going to bring all rain, it may as well be warm. Cold and dry with no snow cover just sucks. Would be nice to get an early start on my golf season too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Redsky has not cancelled winter Yes in December the flowers did bloom and so far in January the cold and moisture has been out of phase to disappoint but I still feel like a large storm is coming by presidents day or a couple mid size events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Seconded! Would give my left nut for something like sunny and 45-50 on the 23rd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 I can't punt on winter yet, my family is renting a house in the Poconos for three weeks in late February until early March. I like to see the Ski resorts do well too: Its a shame even Marsh Creek had to close... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0.25" with the rain event overnight Nice day little breezy and mild Current temp is 48.3 - normal NW Chesco high temp today is 37.0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 First threat has made it to day 7. Normally I would not like the GFS coming in this far north this early in the game but the euro depictions have been further south. Comes at the end of a cold period and the point of the pattern breakdown back to mild just like old times! It's a long shot in this fast flow but right now it is Januaries last great hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 16, 2016 Author Share Posted January 16, 2016 and 23rd is back on the table, flip flop everyday but we are all us to this..correct? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AnthonyDabbundo Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone wanna take a quick look at the CMC? I recommend you are sitting down when you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Anyone wanna take a quick look at the CMC? I recommend you are sitting down when you look at it. Right smack dab in the bullseye. What could possibly go wrong? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 CMC and GFS have both given the area near 30" snowstorms this year, my .2" on the season speaks volumes for the ECM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 0.25" with the rain event overnight Nice day little breezy and mild Current temp is 48.3 - normal NW Chesco high temp today is 37.0 .40 overnight in Media so much for the heavy rain and flooding downpours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 Whatever the GFS does the CMC does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 this is not a good by post because anthony as he ONLY post the one map from the CMC that has snow for the NE BIG CITIES In fact the 12z CMC shows a lot of RAIN for I-95 up to NYC the 500 low closed over over ILL/ IND OH and does not drop nearly as far south as the EURO euro EPS or GEFS shows Anyone wanna take a quick look at the CMC? I recommend you are sitting down when you look at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 16, 2016 Share Posted January 16, 2016 The 18z GFS wants to break records for N&W suburbs next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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