Heisy Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so... Yeah this would not be a MECS, but a quick, intense, moisture-packed bomb. Could be a really nice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 And we have the nao flip going for us which historically has produced some large snow events during the transition. I like the odds. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 I truly believe this 22nd-23rd system is the real deal. ALL the models have a low. GFS & Canadian now show snow for most of the area (going over to rain for city). but big snows 4 the burbs. If we get the EURO on board tonight I'll start to get excited even if it is way out there. IMO it WON'T be a classic type MECS since we don't have all the ingredients, but we have a VERY cold antecedent air mass, and some mild confluence. What we DO have which we NEVER saw with any of the storms this week when they were in the LR is a HP to the N. This potential Day 8-9 storm has a legit HP showing up so...Which ingredients are lacking? We have a neg nao relaxing, a pos pna, a neg epo, active stj with 'pineapple connection', active amplifying northern jet, above normal sst's sitting off the coast for added fuel, cold hp to the north, mild confluence in a near ideal spot. Aside from a true 50/50 low Im not sure what u are defining as missing key ingredients here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 In typical Euro fashion, it is much slower than the other guidance in bringing the energy out of the West/Southwest in regards to the potential Jan 22-23 system. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Talking to myself again lol. EPS are in agreement with other guidance and ens for a storm Jan 22-23. Faster with bringing energy out of West/Southwest than the Euro OP and great signal imho for a SECS/MECS. We have 7 days to hammer out details.....lets not lose this one to the fish of the Great Lakes! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Talking to myself again lol. EPS are in agreement with other guidance and ens for a storm Jan 22-23. Faster with bringing energy out of West/Southwest than the Euro OP and great signal imho for a SECS/MECS. We have 7 days to hammer out details.....lets not lose this one to the fish of the Great Lakes! Don't get your hopes up unless you like to shovel rain. Maybe a front end dump then a flip to rain, but cold air is going to be a big problem IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Don't get your hopes up unless you like to shovel rain. Maybe a front end dump then a flip to rain, but cold air is going to be a big problem IMO You could end up being right but we need to keep the storm signal at least thru Sunday 12z then we can begin to hammer out the details (precipitation type, track, etc). We're in a good spot in terms of agreement right now at this range....about all you can ask for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 You could end up being right but we need to keep the storm signal at least thru Sunday 12z then we can begin to hammer out the details (precipitation type, track, etc). We're in a good spot in terms of agreement right now at this range....about all you can ask for. Disagree. You have a low tracking towards the lakes hitting a retreating block at 9 Days out. In this pattern and how this winter has been unfolding that is not a good spot to be in IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Disagree. You have a low tracking towards the lakes hitting a retreating block at 9 Days out. In this pattern and how this winter has been unfolding that is not a good spot to be in IMO. Hmmmm, could you post the maps of the system going into the Great Lakes (ensemble mean preferred over any op). Maybe I overlooked it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hmmmm, could you post the maps of the system going into the Great Lakes (ensemble mean preferred over any op). Maybe I overlooked it? I said tracking towards the lakes not going into the lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 And I said post the maps :-) The premise of my statement is what I believe is going to eventually unfold not what the ensembles at day 9 might show right now. You can clearly see however that as modeled this is a primary low that tracks to the west and then there is a transfer to the coast. Per the GFS it portrays there being enough of a block and cold air around that it is an all snow event. I think that as time progresses we will see this become a wetter evolution for our area based on the things I mentioned earlier with the block breaking down and the cold air source being marginal. I may be wrong and hope I am but all I am saying is temper your expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This latest iteration of the GFS is awesome at creating fantasy Jan 1996 repeats Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 This latest iteration of the GFS is awesome at creating fantasy Jan 1996 repeats it's been historical january in digital snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The premise of my statement is what I believe is going to eventually unfold not what the ensembles at day 9 might show right now. You can clearly see however that as modeled this is a primary low that tracks to the west and then there is a transfer to the coast. Per the GFS it portrays there being enough of a block and cold air around that it is an all snow event. I think that as time progresses we will see this become a wetter evolution for our area based on the things I mentioned earlier with the block breaking down and the cold air source being marginal. I may be wrong and hope I am but all I am saying is temper your expectations. Understood. I was scratching my head because there wasn't one piece of data (maybe an individual ens member?) That I looked at that showed your scenario of a primary low headed towards the GL region in regards to Jan 22-23. Its all good.....but yes, I hope your assumptions are incorrect and I mean that respectfully :-) Agreed though, temper expectations. If its still on the progs come Sunday afternoon, then we can start getting more serious in terms of tracking. Til then, its nice fantasy in what has become a blah season thus far in terms of snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z ECM is not pleasant to look at long range. Hopefully it's a hiccup or we are in trouble late January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 The Euro is in no hurry to get the precip in here. At hour 222 precip is still in the SE with the 540 line up by Boston. No worries, it will look completely different in another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 12z ECM is not pleasant to look at long range. Hopefully it's a hiccup or we are in trouble late January. Not concerned yet at this range.....typical euro bias. If the EPS join the op for a few runs then yeah..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Not concerned yet at this range.....typical euro bias. If the EPS join the op for a few runs then yeah..... Have any of them taken into account the freak January Hurricane (Alex) that formed today near the Azores progged to head N and then NW? That should tell you what kind of winter we're having! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Maybe Doctor No is losing its mojo? The EPS is completely different and rather close to the GFS actually. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Traditionally Jan 15 is my winter cancel call date. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Traditionally Jan 15 is my winter cancel call date.Im on the edge of my seat in anticipation! This is akin to waiting for whether Punxatawney Phil will see his shadow or not. Forget about getting any sleep tonight now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 the op euro is wrong The Euro is in no hurry to get the precip in here. At hour 222 precip is still in the SE with the 540 line up by Boston. No worries, it will look completely different in another 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DTWXRISK Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 LETS MONGER !! ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED DISCUSSION / SPECULATION** POINT #1 This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days. As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week. This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems over the last 10 days which at point LOOKED like they MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather to portions of the East Coast . If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of feature arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began. Occasionally there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving "just in the nick of time" but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE the event ever begins. POINT # 2 this system... no matter if it actually RAIN or SNOW ... appears to be a classic GULF / East Coast LOW ( referred to in the wx biz as MILLER A TYPE). These sorts of LOWs are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ POINT #3 the second critical issue or variable with regard to this possible JAN 22-23... is the ** TIMING *** As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is not going to last forever. The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic states. This FIRST image is the operational or **regular ** European model from Thursday afternoon. As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24. The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern. The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what is called a *** CUTOFF LOW***. These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England! However lets looks at IMAGE #2 shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run. As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic... and a good portion of New England JAN 22-23. The difference here is NUMBER #3 that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down. The Low keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shemATC Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Hopefully the gfs track for the 23rd comes back west, otherwise it's another 10 day model switch and hello fish storm. It's becoming the weather version of Lucy with the football. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 Im on the edge of my seat in anticipation! This is akin to waiting for whether Punxatawney Phil will see his shadow or not. Forget about getting any sleep tonight now. Fireworks go off in Qtown after the call come on up! Btw I DID NOT hit the cancel button the last two Januaries so look how well that worked out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 14, 2016 Share Posted January 14, 2016 LETS MONGER !! ** ABOUT JAN 22-23 ** *INFORMED DISCUSSION / SPECULATION** POINT #1 This system for JAN 22-23 has been showing up on the various long range weather models for several days. As we all know by now an Arctic outbreak is headed for the Midwest and the East Coast which arrives on Sunday and stays in place for most of next week. This arctic air mass is a critical difference between the system for January 22-23 and the previous weather systems over the last 10 days which at point LOOKED like they MIGHT bring some sort of winter weather to portions of the East Coast . If you go back and take a look at most of the significant East Coast winter storms over the past 70 years... most of feature arctic or semi Arctic air in place BEFORE the storm actually began. Occasionally there will be some situations of rain changing the snow or the cold air arriving "just in the nick of time" but for the most part the vast majority of significant East Coast winter storms have occurred when the Arctic air is in place BEFORE the event ever begins. POINT # 2 this system... no matter if it actually RAIN or SNOW ... appears to be a classic GULF / East Coast LOW ( referred to in the wx biz as MILLER A TYPE). These sorts of LOWs are much more favorable for significant winter weather across portions of NV VA WVA MD DEL as well as into se PA and NJ POINT #3 the second critical issue or variable with regard to this possible JAN 22-23... is the ** TIMING *** As impressive as the cold air is next week ... it is not going to last forever. The Southern System coming out of Texas and the Gulf coast will have to arrive in time so the cold air is still in place over the Middle Atlantic states. This FIRST image is the operational or **regular ** European model from Thursday afternoon. As you can see it shows a rain storm for the entire East Coast for January 23-24. The reason for this has to do with the upper air pattern. The regular European model slows as this LOW down by over developing it in the upper levels the atmosphere into what is called a *** CUTOFF LOW***. These sorts a systems move very slowly and as a result by the time the southern LOW reaches the Carolina Coast.... all the cold air is gone and the rain snow line is north of Albany in Northern New York State and over Northern New England! get_orig_img.png However lets looks at IMAGE #2 shows the European ENSEMBLE from this Thursday afternoons model run. As you can see it has a **vastly** different setup and shows a major snowstorm underway across portions of the Ohio Valley... the Tennessee Valley ...all the middle Atlantic... and a good portion of New England JAN 22-23. 192EPS.png The difference here is NUMBER #3 that the European Ensemble does NOT slow the southern LOW down. The Low keeps moving which means that it arrives when the cold air is still in place across the East Coast ---and that results in a major snowstorm. 204EPS5H.jpg Great post, thank you for sharing DT. with how progressive the pattern has been this season, I think that favors the euro's cut off solution being unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 Hopefully the gfs track for the 23rd comes back west, otherwise it's another 10 day model switch and hello fish storm. It's becoming the weather version of Lucy with the football. But it's day 9! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 One of the best/most accurate models in the world is showing a MECS borderline HECS for much of the region in its ensemble mean yet some folks are already writing this Jan 22-23 threat off based off of the 18z GFS operational model. I kinda get it, we are in a little snow drought and the first real substantial snowfall is behind schedule this season...people are skeptical and tempering expectations. Rightfully so....but just wow. This potential actually appears to have some legs. Im not 100% sold yet but the strong signal is there for someone from GA to ME to get popped next week. Most people here love to just have something to track. Here is your chance to track something. Get on the roller coaster, it should be a fun ride this week with plenty of ups and downs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 15, 2016 Share Posted January 15, 2016 It's funny to watch people freak about the 18Z OTS when the 06Z did the same thing, But the 0Z from last night AND today's 12Z showed BOMBS. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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