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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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Nice overachiever here in NW Chesco. Got 1" from first squall and another 0.2" from 2nd round.

Worst road conditions I've seen around here since the ice storm almost 2 years ago. Traffic was stalled for over 4 hours on route 100 in front of house with vehicles at all sorts of angles and nary a salt truck. Plowed driveway. Arrived at work in King of Prussia to bare ground with little evidence that it snowed.

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GFS is pretty comical. We get the cutter this weekend followed by BN cold and a coastal that goes OTS then warm up for a day ahead of another cutter next weekend followed by more cold and another coastal that goes OTS. At least we don't have to worry about a drought... :underthewx:

I'm not sold on the medium-long range GFS op progs at all. We see how it handled the storm for the coming weekend. Flipped and flopped around in the LR which is sort of expected. I haven't had the chance to compare the LR GFS OP with the GEFS or EPS yet so I can't say for certain, but I have a hunch those LR progs on the OP (cutter, OTS etc) will change quite a few times.

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I'm not sold on the medium-long range GFS op progs at all. We see how it handled the storm for the coming weekend. Flipped and flopped around in the LR which is sort of expected. I haven't had the chance to compare the LR GFS OP with the GEFS or EPS yet so I can't say for certain, but I have a hunch those LR progs on the OP (cutter, OTS etc) will change quite a few times.

Not really, GFS has been sold on the evolution of this storm as a cutter to coastal too late since about day 8. I'd say it's handled it quite well.

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Not really, GFS has been sold on the evolution of this storm as a cutter to coastal too late since about day 8. I'd say it's handled it quite well.

Not a big deal but there were 2-3 solid consecutive runs that had the weekend system as a coastal snow bomb. There were even references made here to Jan 1996 comparisons at that time. So, it may have become consistent following those particular progs but in its LR the evolution was quite different with zero hint of a GL low.

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When the models vehemently disagree with each other to this extent inside of 120, it is a clear indication of a pattern change coming. When pattern changes happen, we often get our best shot at storms. Not saying this will be the case but some of our biggest storms have occurred when the neg NAO begins to relax/flip. All the while, the PNA is progged rather consistently to remain positive. This, IMHO, is a huge indicator of a big storm on the horizon. Whether this is the sub 960mb LP this weekend or something else early next week is still tbd, but all options are on the table at this point regarding a potential big event between Saturday and next Tues/Wed.

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When the models vehemently disagree with each other to this extent inside of 120, it is a clear indication of a pattern change coming. When pattern changes happen, we often get our best shot at storms. Not saying this will be the case but some of our biggest storms have occurred when the neg NAO begins to relax/flip. All the while, the PNA is progged rather consistently to remain positive. This, IMHO, is a huge indicator of a big storm on the horizon. Whether this is the sub 960mb LP this weekend or something else early next week is still tbd, but all options are on the table at this point regarding a potential big event between Saturday and next Tues/Wed.

i like your thinking Mr Wiggum............

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When the models vehemently disagree with each other to this extent inside of 120, it is a clear indication of a pattern change coming. When pattern changes happen, we often get our best shot at storms. Not saying this will be the case but some of our biggest storms have occurred when the neg NAO begins to relax/flip. All the while, the PNA is progged rather consistently to remain positive. This, IMHO, is a huge indicator of a big storm on the horizon. Whether this is the sub 960mb LP this weekend or something else early next week is still tbd, but all options are on the table at this point regarding a potential big event between Saturday and next Tues/Wed.

i agree, the fish should have a monster event in the coming days. jealous of them.

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