snowwors2 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Can you summarize? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 looking more and more likely that the highlight of this epic pattern is going to be the clipper tomorrow where a dusting looks like the most likely outcome. But hey at least we'll have that first trace of snow for winter weekend event looking more and more like a cutter. The long term isn't looking promising either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Looks like the 12z NAM has some flakes in the air tomorrow. Given how this winter has gone, I'd take that and run! Of course, the NAM likes to overdo qpf and it is a clipper, so I'm not holding my breath. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 11, 2016 Author Share Posted January 11, 2016 hope to get a snow shower after sunset and wake to a little white on the grass wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 11, 2016 Share Posted January 11, 2016 Wants to go to defcon 5 for winter, who's with me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wants to go to defcon 5 for winter, who's with me? Me!! All I can say RedSky is Media: Trace!!! Yes, October 23rd cold air aloft behind a vigorous upper air low damm!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Me!! All I can say RedSky is Media: Trace!!! Yes, October 23rd cold air aloft behind a vigorous upper air low damm!!! You know what they say about snow in October around these parts....the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Wants to go to defcon 5 for winter, who's with me? I think you mean something like DEFCON 2... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 NAM looks like it would drop at least a coating tomorrow evening for the area based on the sim radar. may be the only flakes we see this winter so enjoy it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS looks like a solid coating for the area as well. Hires nam showing maybe some squall potential with the clipper, i would take a squall that puts down a half inch tomorrow to at least whiten things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 My area averages less than 15" of snow per year. I understand most people's frustration in the total shutout thus far. However, there are 2 more solid months of winter in front of us and Nino climo suggests late bloomers. If it doesn't happen well then super Nino just ran the table. Down here we endured some long snowless stretches. We did not have a plow able snow from just after PDII to the March 09 snowstorm. A fortune cookie once told me " to have no expectations is to have everything" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 GFS looks like a solid coating for the area as well. Hires nam showing maybe some squall potential with the clipper, i would take a squall that puts down a half inch tomorrow to at least whiten things up.For us, I predict more salt on the roads than snow tomorrow. Those road crew guys are chomping at the bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't like the chances of getting a far enough correction for snow this weekend but our best shot could be a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For us, I predict more salt on the roads than snow tomorrow. Those road crew guys are chomping at the bit. Yes, it is a shame there is so much moral hazard in snow removal. Needlessly wastes salt, destroys the ecosystem, infrastructure and our vehicle chassis when crews go overboard on these little events. It will be a shame if there is a miracle and this winter goes nuclear late in the season leaving townships with squandered and depleted salt reserves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't like the chances of getting a far enough correction for snow this weekend but our best shot could be a few days later Seems like were are always 'chasing' the snowstorm. Ie, snow forecast D+8....gets closer, storm fizzles and another snow forecast pops at D+8....gets closer, atmosphere warms then another snow forecast pops at D+8....wash rinse repeat. Of course there are winters when they actually verify but most of the time here we play the dog chasing it's own tail game. But I suppose most of us in the area like at least one of the Philly sports teams, so we are used to this....."we'll get 'em next time" mentality. Enjoy the "up to an inch of snow" today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 For us, I predict more salt on the roads than snow tomorrow. Those road crew guys are chomping at the bit. Yep ... saw some brine on the roads this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Yes, it is a shame there is so much moral hazard in snow removal. Needlessly wastes salt, destroys the ecosystem, infrastructure and our vehicle chassis when crews go overboard on these little events. It will be a shame if there is a miracle and this winter goes nuclear late in the season leaving townships with squandered and depleted salt reserves.Have you seen the way people drive when any amount of snow falls around here? Even with the salt I'm expecting the afternoon commute to be anarchy on the roadways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Don't like the chances of getting a far enough correction for snow this weekend but our best shot could be a few days laterI think the best case scenario is a little snow at the end but pretty certain this storm is going to be all rain for the area. Unless the models are horribly wrong about the primary track and I mean hundreds of miles wrong. I just don't see it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 looks like the main batch of precip in the form of light snow should arrive at around 2 pm and last til 5 then the high res nam wants to bring a snow squall through the area around 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Do we want to go all out on this one and start an obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Do we want to go all out on this one and start an obs thread? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I recently saw posted in NYC forum that Jan 10-20th is a notorious time period in winter for a lack of big snowstorms with the exception of course 1996. Sands in the hour glass are running lower becoming increasingly likely we need a 1983 or 2006 big one in Feb to salvage this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I recently saw posted in NYC forum that Jan 10-20th is a notorious time period in winter for a lack of big snowstorms with the exception of course 1996. Sands in the hour glass are running lower becoming increasingly likely we need a 1983 or 2006 big one in Feb to salvage this winter. is the same trend observed in El nino years? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Something I recently saw posted in NYC forum that Jan 10-20th is a notorious time period in winter for a lack of big snowstorms with the exception of course 1996. Sands in the hour glass are running lower becoming increasingly likely we need a 1983 or 2006 big one in Feb to salvage this winter. jan 11 2011 was a pretty good storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Maybe more people can look back and like winter 2006 it had snow around Thanksgiving, 10" December 5th and a blizzard in February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Do we want to go all out on this one and start an obs thread?I don't think a heavy flurry event requires its own thread especially since no one posts in here anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 is the same trend observed in El nino years? 1983 El Nino some comparison to this one, not sure about 2006 think it was neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
zenmsav6810 Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Also I meant to say that I was able to talk to one of the nws forecasters at the PA farm show. I told him about our struggle to get more activity in the Philly forum he said that he would pass the word along to his office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 actually with temps in the lower 40s across the area, looking like most of us will start as rain. given there isn't much precip to begin with, our first trace may be in jeopardy :lol: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 12, 2016 Share Posted January 12, 2016 Where is Ray? last active Jan 4th. I hope moving east to zero snow hasn't gotten to him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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