Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Euro looks warm at 240, but stranger things have happened. Many runs to come.EPS look fine and a nice signal. Even tho its the solid Euro, I urge caution when using the OP in the long range. EPS a much better tool in the LR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 8, 2016 Author Share Posted January 8, 2016 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I'm running to the store as I type to beat the rush. redsky, you better make sure you have gas in the blower but seriously, it's fun to look at and signifies the potential we have in the next two weeks. I'd be very surprised if we don't see anything out of it. If that 1039 high in canada is progged further east in the coming days, I'll start to get hyped but that set up verbatim, would be snow to rain for a lot of folks imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 In all seriousness, I think most of us here realize that this solution has about a 5% chance of verifying for our region. Get us within 3 days and we can talk. GEFS have a signal too which I would lean more heavily on than the 18z gfs op. Still good potential coming with a west-based -nao taking shape and the STJ full of activity. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 L O L . Sorry I had to post this. Wonder how this will look in a week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still looking for a trace on the season and the GFS gives me 37" of digital snow that's a new high for fake snow It means nothing but the 312hr event has made it to 240. Sure looks like somebody in the northeast is in for a big storm pieces of a good pattern are in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still looking for a trace on the season and the GFS gives me 37" of digital snow that's a new high for fake snow It means nothing but the 312hr event has made it to 240. Sure looks like somebody in the northeast is in for a big storm pieces of a good pattern are in place. I am sure there has to be some sleet in there??? (sense the sarcasm!) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Still looking for a trace on the season and the GFS gives me 37" of digital snow that's a new high for fake snow The way things are going so far this season, that may be the only way you get to seasonal average...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 The way things are going so far this season, that may be the only way you get to seasonal average...lol Lost 30" on this next OP run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Lost 30" on this next OP run CMC, EPS, GEPS, GEFS, and Doctor No are all on board with a strong signal for something around the 17th with great teleconnections in place. That is plenty good enough support for me at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z NAM would put PHL and TTN very close to breaking record highs on sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Could this Monday/Tuesday be our first coating of the year? Gfs is on board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 12z NAM would put PHL and TTN very close to breaking record highs on sunday. My highs have been higher than expected so far this winter and my lows have been lower than expected. Even though I'm in the burbs of Philly I'll break 60+F Sunday....Philly 63-65F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 GFS has a parade of southern stream storms in the LR with blocking and cold air. I'd be shocked if we don't get a decent storm in the next two weeks. Pattern is screaming it. My highs have been higher than expected so far this winter and my lows have been lower than expected. Even though I'm in the burbs of Philly I'll break 60+F Sunday....Philly 63-65F. Record in philly is 63, I think there's a good shot at taking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 I would keep an eye on the clipper in the middle of next week. These events tend to surprise, I wouldn't be shocked if we picked up a few inches then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 63 certainly achievable Sunday especially if we can break out a couple of hours of sun after the morning rain. Several models showing 1-3" for the area on Wednesday. Snowfall odds go up with each passing day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 L O L . Sorry I had to post this. Wonder how this will look in a week... To answer your question, hopefully same except a 60 mile shift east. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Support for any big storm at the end of 12Z Euro run has dissipated. OTS with the PAC jet roaring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Support for any big storm at the end of 12Z Euro run has dissipated. OTS with the PAC jet roaring. Actually the run is quite cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 As I posted in NYC, would much rather have a near-phase job with a miss (timing issues) and being suppressed at this range as opposed to a cutter on the Euro OP in which 9 out of 10 times never recover to a favorable storm track for snow. I like the potential, I like our chances given the pattern and historic nao switch from strong pos in Nov to severe neg. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 8, 2016 Share Posted January 8, 2016 Actually I'm not rooting against this storm. Just trying to provide a a little ying against the yang. Teleconnections are strong so I am not dismissing this threat out of hand. Anyway we'll have a good time in the coming days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 Support for any big storm at the end of 12Z Euro run has dissipated. OTS with the PAC jet roaring. no it hasn't . look at H5, not just the surface reflection. it's a near miss with the phase but the pieces are still there. as we get closer we will have better sampling of these pieces. there is still potential for a big storm with this system and discounting it based off one run of an OP is foolish. did you think it would show a major snowstorm for 20 straight runs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 9, 2016 Author Share Posted January 9, 2016 winter returns monday. should be a fun couple of weeks for tracking storms per the overnight model runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 winter returns monday. should be a fun couple of weeks for tracking storms per the overnight model runs.. 25+ degree difference between Sun-Mon...maybe 35 w/the wind Monday. Still think Philly beats the record of 63 Sunday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted January 9, 2016 Share Posted January 9, 2016 from Mt Holly NWS on Tuesday AS TEMPERATURES DROP ON TUESDAY EVENING WITH THE ARRIVAL OFANOTHER COLD FRONT, THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXPANDSOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR AND ONTO THE COASTALPLAIN. THE SYSTEM APPEARS ROBUST ENOUGH TO RESULT IN A LIGHT SNOWACCUMULATION AT MANY LOCATIONS. THE FIRST SNOW FLAKES OF THESEASON MAY OCCUR AT PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTIC CITY AND MUCH OF THESOUTHEASTERN PART OF OUR FORECAST AREA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Have picked up 1.35" of rain so far today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 Currently 59 dp 58 here in Media PA .60" of rain so far looking at other reports had to check and see if my rain gauge had a hole in it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 The epic block that was universally modeled up until yesterday is gone, up here no longer have to fear the 2010 suppression Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 More good news here comes a January Line of T storms LOL http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/pa/media/dix/?lat=39.91944122&lon=-75.42047882&label=Media%2c%20PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted January 10, 2016 Share Posted January 10, 2016 More good news here comes a January Line of T storms LOL http://www.wunderground.com/weather-radar/united-states/pa/media/dix/?lat=39.91944122&lon=-75.42047882&label=Media%2c%20PA That line blew through here a little while ago with some of the heaviest rain I've seen since June. No thunder though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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