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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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That could have been around the time they were installing new ASOS/AWOS units at airports nationwide and KACY got a bum one (and/or it went through periods where it was inoperative)?

ASOS was not around back in the 1800's. The obs were taken elsewhere nearby. As I posted above, the data is just missing but it is somewhere. We are currently working to restore the missing data.

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eyyyy we have a threat day 7 on the GFS. We'll see if it's still there in subsequent runs but at least it's something to track(pretty sure i said this about sunday :axe:). Don't like the low in the lakes, cold air may be an issue for the coast but with the southern stream moisture, this is one to keep an eye on. Very close to a SECS on this run, the differences at H5 from 6z are unreal.

 

6z 162

 

gfs_namer_162_500_vort_ht_s.gif

12z 156

 

gfs_namer_156_500_vort_ht_s.gif

 

6z 168

 

gfs_namer_168_500_vort_ht_s.gif

12z 162

 

gfs_namer_162_500_vort_ht_s.gif

12z 162h 2m temps/precip

gfs_namer_162_10m_wnd_precip_s.gif

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If you have a seasonably cold January there is a 98% you will receive traces of snow or at least 1". Heck even our last bad winter bake fest month Jan 2006 gave me a couple inches from frontal passages. Something has to give we can't be that unlucky. Or with my snow blower maybe we can :lol:

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euro is no.

 

 

No for a storm but yes for a clipper that would bring the first trace or if we get wildly lucky .5 to 1" of snow

 

I need a dusting BAD, feel like the guy lost in the desert for a week turning over rocks to lick damp sand

Look at H5, much sharper trough than 00z. It's a not really so much a no as more of a miss. The storm is there, it just develops too late to hit us. Definite potential here.

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Thanks for the ski trip advice. I have until Friday to call it off. One thing about smaller mountains in PA is they can cover the slopes with snowmaking guns in just a few nights like tonight. I bet most places are near 80% open or more by Thursday. If rain is light or no ZR, we will go.

Sunday looks good only for water skiing now. Poor kids this winter sucks for all.

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Was talking about the 1990s not the 1800s. :whistle::P

I realize that but you referenced the 90's and that may have been when ASOS was being installed. My point was that the data was being recorded by other methods before ASOS, therefore the data is there but our database is just missing it.

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I realize that but you referenced the 90's and that may have been when ASOS was being installed. My point was that the data was being recorded by other methods before ASOS, therefore the data is there but our database is just missing it.

 

That's cool and our messages had crossed so no hyperventilation needed (as a fellow 30+ year fed who knows that missing data happens). ;) I got hung up looking at KACY info and seeing where the unit was currently located before I posted, which ended up after you posted.

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*Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week*

Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area.

During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one.

With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday.

Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

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*Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week*

Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area.

During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one.

With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday.

Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

There is a low near the Gulf States at hour 240 on the EC.

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There is a low near the Gulf States at hour 240 on the EC.

240 is too far out for my theory to work. Watch the 4-7 (96-168hr) range for something IF we can hit 60 Sunday. And I might add, when I suggest snow based on this theory, I dont necessarily mean a blizzard. It could be as minor as snow showers or a squall associated with an arctic fropa. Its almost failproof.
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*Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week*

Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area.

During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one.

With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday.

Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days.

Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk

Your theory is up against an historical El Nino. Good luck.

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El Nino years would mean a heavier event has a greater chance of occurring based on my theory:

www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png

160f87bfc1c285f759031f6112ca8370.jpg

I know....gfs off run but has support from other guidance.

 

Ugh why does this have to be 10 days out? Although this is the time frame everyone is hyped up about. It's just exciting to get a fantasy storm. I'll enjoy the maps until 0z lol

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