Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Dumb question. How are they missing data from the 1990's? I can understand the 1890's, but really? That could have been around the time they were installing new ASOS/AWOS units at airports nationwide and KACY got a bum one (and/or it went through periods where it was inoperative)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 May make a run at the record high on Sunday at PHL(63F) and TTN(62F). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 That could have been around the time they were installing new ASOS/AWOS units at airports nationwide and KACY got a bum one (and/or it went through periods where it was inoperative)? ASOS was not around back in the 1800's. The obs were taken elsewhere nearby. As I posted above, the data is just missing but it is somewhere. We are currently working to restore the missing data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lady Di Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Well at least the calm wind last night made for a scenic ride in this morning with frost covered open fields, and most trees. Creek looked pretty cold too. Taking whatever niceness I can get! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikeymac5306 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Probably because when the database was redone, some data was either lost or it was never back filled. We are working to restore the missing data. Gotcha! Thanks for the reply. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 eyyyy we have a threat day 7 on the GFS. We'll see if it's still there in subsequent runs but at least it's something to track(pretty sure i said this about sunday ). Don't like the low in the lakes, cold air may be an issue for the coast but with the southern stream moisture, this is one to keep an eye on. Very close to a SECS on this run, the differences at H5 from 6z are unreal. 6z 162 12z 156 6z 168 12z 162 12z 162h 2m temps/precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted January 6, 2016 Author Share Posted January 6, 2016 euro is no. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Birds~69 Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Someone must have misplaced the floppy disk. 5.25" or 3.5"? This is important. Nice afternoon. 38.8F/sunny....feels upper 40s in the sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 euro is no. No for a storm but yes for a clipper that would bring the first trace or if we get wildly lucky .5 to 1" of snow I need a dusting BAD, feel like the guy lost in the desert for a week turning over rocks to lick damp sand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 If you have a seasonably cold January there is a 98% you will receive traces of snow or at least 1". Heck even our last bad winter bake fest month Jan 2006 gave me a couple inches from frontal passages. Something has to give we can't be that unlucky. Or with my snow blower maybe we can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Iceman Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 euro is no. No for a storm but yes for a clipper that would bring the first trace or if we get wildly lucky .5 to 1" of snow I need a dusting BAD, feel like the guy lost in the desert for a week turning over rocks to lick damp sand Look at H5, much sharper trough than 00z. It's a not really so much a no as more of a miss. The storm is there, it just develops too late to hit us. Definite potential here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 ASOS was not around back in the 1800's. The obs were taken elsewhere nearby. As I posted above, the data is just missing but it is somewhere. We are currently working to restore the missing data. Was talking about the 1990s not the 1800s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 5.25" or 3.5"? This is important. Nice afternoon. 38.8F/sunny....feels upper 40s in the sun. The funny thing is there may indeed be folks reading our posts and not knowing WTH we are talking about........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 6, 2016 Share Posted January 6, 2016 Thanks for the ski trip advice. I have until Friday to call it off. One thing about smaller mountains in PA is they can cover the slopes with snowmaking guns in just a few nights like tonight. I bet most places are near 80% open or more by Thursday. If rain is light or no ZR, we will go. Sunday looks good only for water skiing now. Poor kids this winter sucks for all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Was talking about the 1990s not the 1800s. I realize that but you referenced the 90's and that may have been when ASOS was being installed. My point was that the data was being recorded by other methods before ASOS, therefore the data is there but our database is just missing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 I realize that but you referenced the 90's and that may have been when ASOS was being installed. My point was that the data was being recorded by other methods before ASOS, therefore the data is there but our database is just missing it. That's cool and our messages had crossed so no hyperventilation needed (as a fellow 30+ year fed who knows that missing data happens). I got hung up looking at KACY info and seeing where the unit was currently located before I posted, which ended up after you posted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Redmorninglight Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Sunday looks good only for water skiing now. Poor kids this winter sucks for all.It's fine we will reschedule for super bowl Sunday. We run 4 trips a year and the first one is often sketchy weather. Real nice trends on the models today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 All a sudden today it's patterns with ripe potential 1060 highs over greenland and sugarplumb snow fairies in the long range hahaha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 The funny thing is there may indeed be folks reading our posts and not knowing WTH we are talking about........ There was also an 8" version of the floppies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 *Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week* Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area. During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one. With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday. Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hurricane Agnes Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 FloppyDisk.png There was also an 8" version of the floppies. We used those to back up our PDP-11 in the lab. I was ecstatic to finally put a "surplus me" sticker on the thing when it was rolled out for good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bluescat1 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 *Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week* Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area. During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one. With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday. Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk There is a low near the Gulf States at hour 240 on the EC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 There is a low near the Gulf States at hour 240 on the EC.240 is too far out for my theory to work. Watch the 4-7 (96-168hr) range for something IF we can hit 60 Sunday. And I might add, when I suggest snow based on this theory, I dont necessarily mean a blizzard. It could be as minor as snow showers or a squall associated with an arctic fropa. Its almost failproof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 We used those to back up our PDP-11 in the lab. I was ecstatic to finally put a "surplus me" sticker on the thing when it was rolled out for good. Yup, I used them on a CAD system for designing printed circuit boards that had a PDP-11 as it's engine in the early 80's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 *Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week* https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0KJte4O-zD4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 *Ralph Wiggum/Steve B rule potentially in effect next week* Not a wives tale, not old folklore, tho certainly not scientifically proven either. I post this from time to time and I stand by this. There is a 'phenomena' that I have experienced many, many times here in Philly (just N and W if you want to be precise) in my 30+ years of tracking and logging the weather patterns in the area. During the true heart of winter, which I define as early January to the 2nd week of February, when we see the temperature hit 60 degrees (some winters 55 works but 60 is an excellent overall consistent standard to use), we get some sort of a snow event within the 4-7 day period that follows. I have concluded in my unscientific studies that this occurs at an 80-85% probability. Some red taggers in the past have given their more scientific reasoning as to what mechanisms are at play in creating this scenario such as Bermuda High moving into the N Atlantic becoming a block (-nao), for one. With this said, I have seen raw data recently suggesting a run at 60 degrees Sunday is not out of the question for our area. If one merely takes a gander at the medium/long range 500mb progs, there is clearly a strong signal to develop a -nao in response to the potent ridging out ahead of the front (GL low) moving thru on Sunday. Cheer for a warm episode on Sunday....the milder the better. I can state with a decent amount of confidence that the area will be rewarded within a week from Sunday if a 60 degree minimum high temp is achieved. And yes, this is the mythical "Wiggum Storm" (potential remember, need things to happen first) that you may have heard about from the old MIRC/ne.weather/EUSWX days. Sent from my LG-V410 using Tapatalk Your theory is up against an historical El Nino. Good luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Your theory is up against an historical El Nino. Good luck.El Nino years would mean a heavier event has a greater chance of occurring based on my theory:www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png I know....gfs off run but has support from other guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fields27 Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 El Nino years would mean a heavier event has a greater chance of occurring based on my theory: www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2016010718/gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png I know....gfs off run but has support from other guidance. Ugh why does this have to be 10 days out? Although this is the time frame everyone is hyped up about. It's just exciting to get a fantasy storm. I'll enjoy the maps until 0z lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Ugh why does this have to be 10 days out? Although this is the time frame everyone is hyped up about. It's just exciting to get a fantasy storm. I'll enjoy the maps until 0z lolExactly lol. 0z sunny and 60 probably. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted January 7, 2016 Share Posted January 7, 2016 Exactly lol. 0z sunny and 60 probably. Euro looks warm at 240, but stranger things have happened. Many runs to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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