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E PA/NJ/DE/ Non Storm OBS thread


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12z GFS to put it frankly, just sucks. Sunday looks like nothing more than showers at this point and a brief warm up, then cold and dry, then the next threat isn't until 13 days out where the same thing happens as sunday. Brief warm up, then showers with a cold front to reinforce the cold and dry. This pattern doesn't look like it is going to produce at all, even front end thumps.. I haven't even seen flurries this year.

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12z GFS to put it frankly, just sucks. Sunday looks like nothing more than showers at this point and a brief warm up, then cold and dry, then the next threat isn't until 13 days out where the same thing happens as sunday. Brief warm up, then showers with a cold front to reinforce the cold and dry. This pattern doesn't look like it is going to produce at all, even front end thumps.. I haven't even seen flurries this year.

 

This just flat out blows...no other way to put it.

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Im clueless when it comes to 90% of the weather analysis my old man was pretty knowledgeable about it and use to always say there is checks and balances when it comes to the weather, We had to know this type of winter was coming after the past 2 years I like my Pop love snow and this winter is far from over but lets not be greedy there is always next year. but the best part is Im still on my first cord unlike the last 2 winters I was into number number 2 by now. PS I enjoy this site and keep up the good work when the storms come there is nothing better than reading the interesting comments Pop use to enjoy it.    

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12z GFS to put it frankly, just sucks. Sunday looks like nothing more than showers at this point and a brief warm up, then cold and dry, then the next threat isn't until 13 days out where the same thing happens as sunday. Brief warm up, then showers with a cold front to reinforce the cold and dry. This pattern doesn't look like it is going to produce at all, even front end thumps.. I haven't even seen flurries this year.

The cold came and it looks like a bad pattern coming with the southern jet absent, I am surprised a dry January was the last thing I saw coming despite how some say it's normal for El Nino. No northern stream with clippers either, all this despite a crazy active Pacific and western US it is beginning to look like we get double snake bit this month something has to drop snow eventually...I hope :yikes: but a pattern relaxation is now on the table for the end of the month as good as things looked on New Years it's crazy

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Mount Holly just shared this on their FB page. Was definitely surprised by this. Hoping we can at least see some flakes soon...

 

Yeah - they have it in their climate section in the AFD today -

&&

.CLIMATE...
WE ARE ONE DAY AWAY FROM TYING A MARK FOR THE LATEST DATE IN A
WINTER SEASON TO REACH A TRACE OF SNOW FOR PHILADELPHIA. NO SNOW IS
IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AT THIS TIME. WE WILL
LIKELY NOT SEE A TRACE OF SNOWFALL AT PHILADELPHIA UNTIL AT LEAST
1/12. SOME PAST YEARS WHERE THE FIRST TRACE OF SNOWFALL WAS NOT
RECORDED UNTIL THE MONTH OF JANUARY.

3. JANUARY 3 IN 1892 AND 1944
2*. JANUARY 5, 2016
1. JANUARY 6 IN 1995 AND 2002

ALLENTOWN HAS ALREADY HAD A TRACE ON MULTIPLE OCCASIONS THIS WINTER
SEASON. WILMINGTON HAS HAD A TRACE OF SNOW ALREADY THIS WINTER AS
WELL.


FOR ATLANTIC CITY. SNOWFALL DATA WAS MISSING FOR SEVERAL WINTERS IN
THE LATE 1990`S. HOWEVER, A TRACE OF SNOWFALL HAS NOT OCCURRED THIS
WINTER. A TRACE OF SNOW IS NOT LIKELY AT ATLANTIC CITY THROUGH 1/12.
SOME DATES WE HAVE FOR ATLANTIC CITY ON LATEST OCCURRENCES OF A
TRACE....

5*. JANUARY 5TH 2016
4. JANUARY 7TH 2002
3. JANUARY 10TH 1932
2. JANUARY 12TH 1949
1. JANUARY 14TH 1966

&&

Interesting stats!  Just like having the latest below 32F during the season at PHL.  Saw something earlier today where this year's El Nino had been declared to have tied the 1997-1998 one in strength (as strongest on record).  But it's hard to do analogues because of the strength issue and so few data points to compare.

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The cold came and it looks like a bad pattern coming with the southern jet absent, I am surprised a dry January was the last thing I saw coming despite how some say it's normal for El Nino. No northern stream with clippers either, all this despite a crazy active Pacific and western US it is beginning to look like we get double snake bit this month something has to drop snow eventually...I hope :yikes: but a pattern relaxation is now on the table for the end of the month as good as things looked on New Years it's crazy

Just a year ago the Boston folks were singing the same song....

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Mount Holly just shared this on their FB page. Was definitely surprised by this. Hoping we can at least see some flakes soon...

we're going to shatter that record. No threats of snow in sight. The storm this weekend is looking like rain even up into the mountains of VT/NH and Maine now despite the cold. After that, the LES belt should be cranking up north but literally zero threats here in the LR, everything from the southern stream is suppressed ots and the northern stream is non existent. It's crazy to me that we'll have a -NAO,a heavily -AO(ensemble mean down to -3 to -4), +PNA, and -EPO yet no threats at all. All of the tools but no tool box.

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Dumb question. How are they missing data from the 1990's? I can understand the 1890's, but really?

Probably because when the database was redone, some data was either lost or it was never back filled. We are working to restore the missing data.

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