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Mid-Atlantic winter 2015-16 snowfall contest


PrinceFrederickWx

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All the "three years of climo-plus is nearly impossible" arguments were bunk. Each season is individual, and if the most influential indices hint at a chance of a greater than normal snowfall season, then it only makes sense to go with that.

Idk. They're individual but related in some ways too. It's not like flipping a coin.

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Idk. They're individual but related in some ways too. It's not like flipping a coin.

I've brought this question up before but have never really gotten an answer. I tend to agree with mattie g that its mostly independent trials each winter (but I could be wrong).

The other sides argument would be that an indices previous state has some effect down the road (like for example, the longer you have a positive NAO, the more difficult it is to maintain and thus it makes next winter more likely to be negative).

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  • 2 weeks later...
After today, what I have for seasonal snow totals is:

 

DCA: 18.8

IAD: 30.6

BWI: 30.4

RIC: 12.1

 

Our current leader is... HighStakes!

 

Leaderboard is really close for top five- just a minor event that favors one of the airports could put any one of them back on top.

 

HighStakes (5.8)

wxdude64 (6.0) & weatherCCB (6.0)

midatlanticweather (6.1)

SNO (7.0)

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Ah, thats not that awful though. Another 10-12" storm and I'm golden. 

 

I don't think its an awful call at all- I like both our calls. My original post wasn't being sarcastic. I think we're both still in the game.

 

...of course this post itself probably just jinxed us to get shutout going forward lol

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DCA: 33.5"

IAD: 49.8"

BWI: 45.5"

RIC: 17.2"

Tiebreaker: 5.60"

 

Nice on the tiebreaker, BWI had 2.61" of rain on 24th and that almost doubled the monthly precip to 5.69" ... here's a list of any entries that are higher than yours (I suspect some of them are snowfall forecasts but anyway ...):

 

OhLeary ____12.0"

dailylurker ___ 6.5"

SLPressure __ 6.2"

OnceinaLifetime

2009-2010 ___ 6.0"

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Nice on the tiebreaker, BWI had 2.61" of rain on 24th and that almost doubled the monthly precip to 5.69" ... here's a list of any entries that are higher than yours (I suspect some of them are snowfall forecasts but anyway ...):

OhLeary ____12.0"

dailylurker ___ 6.5"

SLPressure __ 6.2"

OnceinaLifetime

2009-2010 ___ 6.0"

Awesome! I make forecasts you can trust. Snowfall part of this will be won by me in March. :-)

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  • 2 weeks later...

Seasonal Totals so far:

DCA: 22.2"

IAD: 34.3"

BWI: 35.1"

RIC: 15.1"

 

Shadowzone is still leading! He also has IAD exactly right!

 

Leaderboard:

Shadowzone (7.0)

gopper (7.7)

Highstakes (11.2)

wxdude64 & SNO (11.6)

 

The battle for 1st and 2nd is pretty close, but barring some major event, it will be difficult for anyone 3rd or lower to take the lead. I'm not closing this out until mid-April though as the airports can theoretically get snow any time up until then.

 

Also of note: Quagmire Wx and wxdude64 are currently right on the money for RIC- the only other people to have an exact forecast at any airport currently.

 

 

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  • 2 weeks later...
  • 3 weeks later...
 

and the "Ts" have it for April 9!  I was worried when I saw the radar mid-morning Saturday with some dark blue returns over DC.  

 

We had a very cool graupel shower around 11:00 a.m. in Hanover County, VA

 

Yeah, I got 1.4" IMBY, but none of the airports got anything, so the seasonal totals are the same:
 
DCA: 22.2"
IAD: 34.3"
BWI: 35.1"
RIC: 15.1"
 
Since it's April 11 and there doesn't appear to be any more winter weather threats, I think we're good to officially call it now- so Shadowzone is our champion! Congratulations! Attached is your eTrophy! (I hope the font wasn't too small, but it has your name on it)  :lol:
 
Below are the rest of the top ten (and departures in parenthesis):
 
2. gopper (7.7)
3. HighStakes (11.2)
T-4. wxdude64 (11.6)
T-4. SNO (11.6)
6. das (12.1)
7. Warrior Bigfoot (15.4)
8. nj2va (16.0)
9. dailylurker (16.9)
10. WxWatcher007 (17.0)
 
Of course, if the tiebreaker was its own contest I would've won  :whistle: - maybe I should just do a contest for February precip at BWI next year  :lol:
 
I've decided I'll be taking a long hiatus from this forum (unless there's some really extreme event like a tornado IMBY or a big tropical event). I'll still be updating my BWI records page (link is in my signature) so anyone who needs to contact me can post a comment there.
 
This was a very fun contest to have- thanks to everyone who played! I will be back in early/mid November with a snow contest for next winter- enjoy your summer and I'll see you all then!

 

post-5733-0-36745900-1460379782_thumb.pn

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