yoda Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 DCA: 18.6" IAD: 25.3" BWI: 19.2" RIC: 5.4" Tiebreaker: 2.11" Close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 All the "three years of climo-plus is nearly impossible" arguments were bunk. Each season is individual, and if the most influential indices hint at a chance of a greater than normal snowfall season, then it only makes sense to go with that. Idk. They're individual but related in some ways too. It's not like flipping a coin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I thought this contest was only for the 1st half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 25, 2016 Author Share Posted January 25, 2016 Idk. They're individual but related in some ways too. It's not like flipping a coin. I've brought this question up before but have never really gotten an answer. I tend to agree with mattie g that its mostly independent trials each winter (but I could be wrong). The other sides argument would be that an indices previous state has some effect down the road (like for example, the longer you have a positive NAO, the more difficult it is to maintain and thus it makes next winter more likely to be negative). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 I'm so glad that I lost. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 25, 2016 Share Posted January 25, 2016 Yoda, you had the lead for eight minutes from 4:02 to 4:10 p.m. ... then I had it for three minutes. Everyone had it except for those fortunate few who still have inches to spare. (once again, these are entirely made up estimated numbers -- just like my forecasts) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 5, 2016 Author Share Posted February 5, 2016 Didn't realize IAD got another 0.1" on the 29th. I don't think that'll change the leaderboard positions but I'll check sometime this weekend. Doesn't appear that we had any accumulating snow at the airports for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 9, 2016 Author Share Posted February 9, 2016 After today, what I have for seasonal snow totals is: DCA: 18.8 IAD: 30.6 BWI: 30.4 RIC: 12.1 Our current leader is... HighStakes! Leaderboard is really close for top five- just a minor event that favors one of the airports could put any one of them back on top. HighStakes (5.8) wxdude64 (6.0) & weatherCCB (6.0) midatlanticweather (6.1) SNO (7.0) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 16, 2016 Author Share Posted February 16, 2016 Seasonal totals so far: DCA: 21.9 IAD: 33.0 BWI: 32.6 RIC: 13.9 Our current leader is... Shadowzone! A solid lead too. Leaderboard: Shadowzone (5.7) HighStakes (7.7) wxdude64 (8.7) SNO (8.9) das (9.4) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted February 16, 2016 Share Posted February 16, 2016 Bring on Spring! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Happy to see the higher snowfall totals looking better and better. Thanks for keeping track of the leaderboard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 There is potential for RIC to hit 20, DCA 30, and IAD/BWI 40. Would look great on paper and a sweet 3 year run to look back on when we're on the tail end of a 6 year below climo streak Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm looking forward to the final battle between me and mappy in March! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 I'm looking forward to the final battle between me and mappy in March! Lol i forgot what i guessed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 i forgot what i guessed lol Yours is on page 1: DCA: 32" IAD: 45" BWI: 40" RIC: 20" Tiebreaker: 1.5" You, me and attml are the biggest weenies in this contest, but attml's is very high, whereas you and I are fairly close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ah, thats not that awful though. Another 10-12" storm and I'm golden. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 18, 2016 Share Posted February 18, 2016 better than my guesses Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 18, 2016 Author Share Posted February 18, 2016 Ah, thats not that awful though. Another 10-12" storm and I'm golden. I don't think its an awful call at all- I like both our calls. My original post wasn't being sarcastic. I think we're both still in the game. ...of course this post itself probably just jinxed us to get shutout going forward lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 DCA: 33.5" IAD: 49.8" BWI: 45.5" RIC: 17.2" Tiebreaker: 5.60" Nice on the tiebreaker, BWI had 2.61" of rain on 24th and that almost doubled the monthly precip to 5.69" ... here's a list of any entries that are higher than yours (I suspect some of them are snowfall forecasts but anyway ...): OhLeary ____12.0" dailylurker ___ 6.5" SLPressure __ 6.2" OnceinaLifetime 2009-2010 ___ 6.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 Nice on the tiebreaker, BWI had 2.61" of rain on 24th and that almost doubled the monthly precip to 5.69" ... here's a list of any entries that are higher than yours (I suspect some of them are snowfall forecasts but anyway ...): OhLeary ____12.0" dailylurker ___ 6.5" SLPressure __ 6.2" OnceinaLifetime 2009-2010 ___ 6.0" Awesome! I make forecasts you can trust. Snowfall part of this will be won by me in March. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted February 25, 2016 Share Posted February 25, 2016 Awesome! I make forecasts you can trust. Snowfall part of this will be won by me in March. :-) I feel a skunk for this March. Recent years have been bountiful in March, but we are due for a minimal snow month. :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 25, 2016 Author Share Posted February 25, 2016 I feel a skunk for this March. Recent years have been bountiful in March, but we are due for a minimal snow month. :-) Yeah but we're about a century overdue for a major April snowstorm. Not closing out the contest until late April! :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 4, 2016 Author Share Posted March 4, 2016 Seasonal Totals so far: DCA: 22.2" IAD: 34.3" BWI: 35.1" RIC: 15.1" Shadowzone is still leading! He also has IAD exactly right! Leaderboard: Shadowzone (7.0) gopper (7.7) Highstakes (11.2) wxdude64 & SNO (11.6) The battle for 1st and 2nd is pretty close, but barring some major event, it will be difficult for anyone 3rd or lower to take the lead. I'm not closing this out until mid-April though as the airports can theoretically get snow any time up until then. Also of note: Quagmire Wx and wxdude64 are currently right on the money for RIC- the only other people to have an exact forecast at any airport currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 17, 2016 Author Share Posted March 17, 2016 Shadowzone better be hugging the GFS right now! Palm Sunday 1942 redux will make me the winner! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted March 21, 2016 Share Posted March 21, 2016 Shadowzone better be hugging the GFS right now! Palm Sunday 1942 redux will make me the winner! The torch-line defense was strong. I was in Raleigh for March Madness, and just now checked to see if any accumulation was recorded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 22, 2016 Author Share Posted March 22, 2016 The torch-line defense was strong. I was in Raleigh for March Madness, and just now checked to see if any accumulation was recorded. You're about to win- just need to run out the last few minutes of game time lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 8, 2016 Author Share Posted April 8, 2016 Even a minor event tomorrow could be a game changer- if I remember correctly, 0.4" accumulating at IAD only will flip 1st and 2nd. Not sure how BWI would factor in, hadn't checked that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shadowzone Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 and the "Ts" have it for April 9! I was worried when I saw the radar mid-morning Saturday with some dark blue returns over DC. We had a very cool graupel shower around 11:00 a.m. in Hanover County, VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted April 11, 2016 Author Share Posted April 11, 2016 and the "Ts" have it for April 9! I was worried when I saw the radar mid-morning Saturday with some dark blue returns over DC. We had a very cool graupel shower around 11:00 a.m. in Hanover County, VA Yeah, I got 1.4" IMBY, but none of the airports got anything, so the seasonal totals are the same: DCA: 22.2" IAD: 34.3" BWI: 35.1" RIC: 15.1" Since it's April 11 and there doesn't appear to be any more winter weather threats, I think we're good to officially call it now- so Shadowzone is our champion! Congratulations! Attached is your eTrophy! (I hope the font wasn't too small, but it has your name on it) Below are the rest of the top ten (and departures in parenthesis): 2. gopper (7.7) 3. HighStakes (11.2) T-4. wxdude64 (11.6) T-4. SNO (11.6) 6. das (12.1) 7. Warrior Bigfoot (15.4) 8. nj2va (16.0) 9. dailylurker (16.9) 10. WxWatcher007 (17.0) Of course, if the tiebreaker was its own contest I would've won - maybe I should just do a contest for February precip at BWI next year I've decided I'll be taking a long hiatus from this forum (unless there's some really extreme event like a tornado IMBY or a big tropical event). I'll still be updating my BWI records page (link is in my signature) so anyone who needs to contact me can post a comment there. This was a very fun contest to have- thanks to everyone who played! I will be back in early/mid November with a snow contest for next winter- enjoy your summer and I'll see you all then! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted April 11, 2016 Share Posted April 11, 2016 Congratulations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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