Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 a little old....but an update from LOT... AREA FORECAST DISCUSSIONNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL1150 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015.UPDATE...1137 AM CSTWITHIN THE BROAD SHIELD OF SNOW...WE ARE MONITORING LAKE ENHANCEDSNOW THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF ONE QUARTER MILEVISIBILITY OR LESS FOR PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...INCLUDINGDOWNTOWN...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. FOR SOME IN FAR NORTHEASTILLINOIS THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCHPER HOURWITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE THELOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHERNWISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LAND AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS AREINDICATING SHARP CONVERGENCE FROM MID LAKE SOUTHWEST INTO LAKECOUNTY ILLINOIS...WITH OVERALL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDSINDICATING THIS HAS DEPTH AND SUSTAINABILITY. MODIFIED RAPSOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINTINDICATE LAKE-INDUCED CAPES OF 175 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUDDEPTHS OF NEARLY 10000 FT. WITH THE ALREADY MODERATE SYNOPTICSNOWFALL THIS ONLY ENHANCES THE ONGOING RATES EASILY INTO THEHEAVY CATEGORY.RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS...AND WEBCAMS ALL VERIFY APRONOUNCED AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW IN LAKE COUNTY AS OF 1130 AMWITHIN THE CONVERGENT FOCUS. IN ADDITION...FINGERS OF ENHANCEDSNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LAKE INTO COOK AND DUPAGECOUNTIES AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN WILL COUNTY. THE LAKE COUNTYENHANCED SNOWFALL IS THE PRIMARY LOCATION OF CONCERN FOR THEPERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELY INCREASED RATIOS FORQUICKER ACCUMULATION. THIS AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH1-2 PM OR SO AND THEN AT A QUICKER RATE...REACHING INTO NORTHWESTINDIANA DURING THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON. AT LEAST A PORTION OFTHE 1-3 PM TIME WILL SEE THE SNOW PIVOT THROUGH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.THE HIGHER RATES LIKELY WILL INDUCE BRIEF ACCUMULATION INDOWNTOWN...INCLUDING POSSIBLY ON PAVEMENT...WHICH HAS GENERALLYBEEN VOID OF THAT SO FAR PER REPORTS.FURTHER WEST...THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AND END OF THE SNOWARE ALMOST SYNONYMOUS ON RADAR. TIMING THIS LOOKS TO END THE SNOWAROUND THE I-39 CORRIDOR NEAR 1 PM WHICH MAY RESULT IN CANCELING THEWARNING A BIT EARLY THERE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WAS REPORTED ATROCKFORD AIRPORT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE WEIGHTOF THE SNOW SHOULD KEEP THAT PATCHY. AREA WEBCAMS HAVE NOT SHOWNANYTHING THAT LOOKS TO BE OF BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS AT THISTIME. WILL STRESS A LITTLE MORE IN MESSAGING THAT THE WEIGHT OFTHE SNOW COULD CAUSE IMPACTS OF BREAKING BRANCHES OR POWER OUTAGESINTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CONCERNS FOR SHOVELING SUCH AHEAVY FIRST SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THEMOST.MTF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McDude Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Lake enhancement starting to ramp up over here. Definitely some. +SN going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 13.3" at 1pm. ORD on eastward and towards Naperville is getting blasted right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Looks like things are changing for downtown Chicago...Pretty cool webcam http://www.earthcam.com/usa/illinois/chicago/wrigleyfield/?cam=wrigleyfield_hd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 via LOT... PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL106 PM CST SAT NOV 21 20151255 PM HEAVY SNOW HAWTHORN WOODS 42.22N 88.06W11/21/2015 M16.5 INCH LAKE IL PUBLIC RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I am really excited for the snow out west to shift here into Michigan, could add 1-3 onto our current totals from LES Enhanced snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 winding down here got 7 inches from last nights mega band 6 inches from the just concluded LE and 1 inch of slop in between. Not bad for nov 21st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 via LOT... Wow, that's what you would expect in the depths of winter! They were in the "death band" a lot longer than here last night. I think a slight cooler temperature this morning created slightly higher ratios a bit further inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Yeah, had a period of nice sized flakes looks like we might see a little bit more as the back edge is still near Springfield/Peoria Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 6.5" and it's absolutely ripping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 congrats everyone on a kick ass snow event in late November! This is only the beginning of an epic winter for the midwest.................. You'll be instructing weathafella and Ginx Snewx on the fundamentals of winter snow-laden epicosity by mid January 2016! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jackstraw Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Awesome big dog totals up north. Can't say I'm dissappointed here in North Central In. Expected rain until late this afternoon. No rain, 3.5 inches so far. Started about 10:30. Had a nice 25 to 35 dbz band form over me for about 2-3 hours. Thought it was rain coming when I saw the yellows and outside temps were running about 36-38 but it really started ripping until about 1pm. Evapo cooling my guess. We probably could of added another inch or so but took about an hour for ground temps to cooperate. definititly had inch per hour rates for a couple hours. In a lull now hope we can get another inch or two from the backside. Roads are covered now, gonna be a mess this evening with temps in the teens and wind chills in the single digits. All in all a very generous Nov. snow all around the sub. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 KORD 211951Z 34021G26KT 1/8SM R10L/2200V2400FT +SN BLSN FZFG VV004 M02/M03 A2994 RMK AO2 PK WND 35028/1921 SLP146 SNINCR 2/11 P0028 T10171028 $ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Well, it's a happy ending. SN+, everything covered Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 ORD must be getting close to 9" by now or over... Pound town in Chicago. Really light snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jiksports Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 SN/SN+ right by Lake Michigan. Temperatures are still above freezing, but it is coming down fast enough to stick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Crazy heavy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chitown Storm Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Crazy heavy. image.jpg Awesome shot! Pure rippage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Crazy heavy. image.jpg Wow ! Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianc400 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Wow, that's what you would expect in the depths of winter! They were in the "death band" a lot longer than here last night. I think a slight cooler temperature this morning created slightly higher ratios a bit further inland. Yea, this was my report. We scored 6.5" just between 8:30-10 pm last night. I've never seen anything like it. The air was so thick with large flakes. I was all excited. Wife did not appreciate the rarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 ORD must be getting close to 9" by now or over...Last OBS had 11" on the ground, so there's over 10". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Last OBS had 11" on the ground, so there's over 10". Sweet- bumped into the #2 spot for heaviest November snows. 13.4" here. Probably about done now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 The snow on the back end this morning definitely made up for the slow start during the night. Flake size was greatly improved with the deform band, and we added another 4.4" since early this morning. Storm total ended up at 8.5". Very respectable storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Snow is picking back up again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chargers09 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 About 3.5 inches here on the edge of the screwzone. Radar looks impressive. I think we'll be back in the snow here soon. I'll easily take the over on 6 inches for this storm here. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Jim quickly approaching warning criteria (totally not forecast): PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN342 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON.....DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE......REMARKS..0300 PM SNOW KOKOMO 40.48N 86.13W11/21/2015 M5.0 INCH HOWARD IN PUBLICMEASURED WITH YARDSTICK. STILL SNOWING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtrackertf Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now.It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now. It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east. Our 0.6" from this morning had completely melted...snow has resumed now after a 5 hour lull. Chicago will end up being far more drastic & was entirely caused by Lake influence. Detroits will be because of dry slot. Not a drop of rain, the entire issue with this storm here was the prolonged (but predicted) dry slot. About 10+ years ago, you could definitely say "such is life in the far southeast corner of MI", but honestly, not lately. It is amazing how lucky we have been in recent years. It seems like 75% of the time we have more snow on the ground here than north of town (outside of perhaps the high elevations of northern Oakland). As said, 10 years ago, that was a rare bird, maybe once or twice a winter deal. Still hard to complain when its November 21st and getting the season off to a snowy start, but I admit I may see if I have time to travel northwest tomorrow for a hike. Thinking this park by my work in Farmington Hills. Too tempting to pass up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Pouring snow here in Roseville, vis down to 1/2 mile already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jonger Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now. It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east. Lake level typically reduces your annual snow totals by a notable amount. I bet the Grampian Hills area of Oakland county probably average 60 inches, versus your 42 in the city. http://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=6492 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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