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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm Part 2


Hoosier

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a little old....but an update from LOT...

 

 

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
1150 AM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

.UPDATE...
1137 AM CST

WITHIN THE BROAD SHIELD OF SNOW...WE ARE MONITORING LAKE ENHANCED
SNOW THAT WILL LIKELY LEAD TO PERIODS OF ONE QUARTER MILE
VISIBILITY OR LESS FOR PARTS OF THE CHICAGO METRO AREA...INCLUDING
DOWNTOWN...THROUGH EARLY-MID AFTERNOON. FOR SOME IN FAR NORTHEAST
ILLINOIS THIS WILL RESULT IN SNOWFALL RATES IN EXCESS OF AN INCH
PER HOUR

WITH THE SURFACE LOW CONTINUING TO SHIFT EAST OF OUR LONGITUDE THE
LOW-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO TURN MORE NORTHERLY OVER SOUTHERN
WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS. LAND AND MARINE OBSERVATIONS ARE
INDICATING SHARP CONVERGENCE FROM MID LAKE SOUTHWEST INTO LAKE
COUNTY ILLINOIS...WITH OVERALL INCREASING LOW-LEVEL WIND SPEEDS
INDICATING THIS HAS DEPTH AND SUSTAINABILITY. MODIFIED RAP
SOUNDINGS FOR THE SOUTH MID-LAKE BUOY TEMPERATURE/DEW POINT
INDICATE LAKE-INDUCED CAPES OF 175 J/KG WITH CONVECTIVE CLOUD
DEPTHS OF NEARLY 10000 FT. WITH THE ALREADY MODERATE SYNOPTIC
SNOWFALL THIS ONLY ENHANCES THE ONGOING RATES EASILY INTO THE
HEAVY CATEGORY.

RADAR...OBSERVATIONS AND REPORTS...AND WEBCAMS ALL VERIFY A
PRONOUNCED AREA OF ENHANCED SNOW IN LAKE COUNTY AS OF 1130 AM
WITHIN THE CONVERGENT FOCUS. IN ADDITION...FINGERS OF ENHANCED
SNOW EXTENDING SOUTHWEST FROM THE LAKE INTO COOK AND DUPAGE
COUNTIES AND EVEN INTO NORTHERN WILL COUNTY. THE LAKE COUNTY
ENHANCED SNOWFALL IS THE PRIMARY LOCATION OF CONCERN FOR THE
PERSISTENT HEAVY SNOWFALL RATES AND LIKELY INCREASED RATIOS FOR
QUICKER ACCUMULATION. THIS AXIS SHOULD SLOWLY PIVOT SOUTH THROUGH
1-2 PM OR SO AND THEN AT A QUICKER RATE...REACHING INTO NORTHWEST
INDIANA DURING THE MID TO LATER AFTERNOON. AT LEAST A PORTION OF
THE 1-3 PM TIME WILL SEE THE SNOW PIVOT THROUGH DOWNTOWN CHICAGO.
THE HIGHER RATES LIKELY WILL INDUCE BRIEF ACCUMULATION IN
DOWNTOWN...INCLUDING POSSIBLY ON PAVEMENT...WHICH HAS GENERALLY
BEEN VOID OF THAT SO FAR PER REPORTS.

FURTHER WEST...THE BACK EDGE OF THE DEFORMATION AND END OF THE SNOW
ARE ALMOST SYNONYMOUS ON RADAR. TIMING THIS LOOKS TO END THE SNOW
AROUND THE I-39 CORRIDOR NEAR 1 PM WHICH MAY RESULT IN CANCELING THE
WARNING A BIT EARLY THERE. PATCHY BLOWING SNOW WAS REPORTED AT
ROCKFORD AIRPORT WITH THE INCREASING WINDS...ALTHOUGH THE WEIGHT
OF THE SNOW SHOULD KEEP THAT PATCHY. AREA WEBCAMS HAVE NOT SHOWN
ANYTHING THAT LOOKS TO BE OF BLOWING/DRIFTING CONCERNS AT THIS
TIME. WILL STRESS A LITTLE MORE IN MESSAGING THAT THE WEIGHT OF
THE SNOW COULD CAUSE IMPACTS OF BREAKING BRANCHES OR POWER OUTAGES
INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS WELL AS THE CONCERNS FOR SHOVELING SUCH A
HEAVY FIRST SNOW...ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AREAS THAT RECEIVED THE
MOST.

MTF

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via LOT...

 

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL
106 PM CST SAT NOV 21 2015

1255 PM     HEAVY SNOW       HAWTHORN WOODS          42.22N 88.06W
11/21/2015  M16.5 INCH       LAKE               IL   PUBLIC

            RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA

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via LOT...

 

Wow, that's what you would expect in the depths of winter!

They were in the "death band" a lot longer than here last night. I think a slight cooler temperature this morning created slightly higher ratios a bit further inland.

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Awesome big dog totals up north.  Can't say I'm dissappointed here in North Central In.  Expected rain until late this afternoon.  No rain, 3.5 inches so far.  Started about 10:30.  Had a nice 25 to 35 dbz band form over me for about 2-3 hours.  Thought it was rain coming when I saw the yellows and outside temps were running about 36-38 but it really started ripping until about 1pm.  Evapo cooling my guess.  We probably could of added another inch or so but took about an hour for ground temps to cooperate.  definititly had inch per hour rates for a couple hours. In a lull now hope we can get another inch or two from the backside.  Roads are covered now, gonna be a mess this evening with temps in the teens and wind chills in the single digits.  All in all a very generous Nov. snow all around the sub. :santa:

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Wow, that's what you would expect in the depths of winter!

They were in the "death band" a lot longer than here last night. I think a slight cooler temperature this morning created slightly higher ratios a bit further inland.

Yea, this was my report. We scored 6.5" just between 8:30-10 pm last night. I've never seen anything like it. The air was so thick with large flakes.

I was all excited. Wife did not appreciate the rarity. :)

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Jim quickly approaching warning criteria (totally not forecast):

 

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE INDIANAPOLIS IN
342 PM EST SAT NOV 21 2015

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..

0300 PM SNOW KOKOMO 40.48N 86.13W
11/21/2015 M5.0 INCH HOWARD IN PUBLIC

MEASURED WITH YARDSTICK. STILL SNOWING.

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Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now.

It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east.

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Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now.

It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east.

Our 0.6" from this morning had completely melted...snow has resumed now after a 5 hour lull. Chicago will end up being far more drastic & was entirely caused by Lake influence. Detroits will be because of dry slot. Not a drop of rain, the entire issue with this storm here was the prolonged (but predicted) dry slot.

 

About 10+ years ago, you could definitely say "such is life in the far southeast corner of MI", but honestly, not lately. It is amazing how lucky we have been in recent years. It seems like 75% of the time we have more snow on the ground here than north of town (outside of perhaps the high elevations of northern Oakland). As said, 10 years ago, that was a rare bird, maybe once or twice a winter deal. Still hard to complain when its November 21st and getting the season off to a snowy start, but I admit I may see if I have time to travel northwest tomorrow for a hike. Thinking this park by my work in Farmington Hills. Too tempting to pass up.

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Been in the screw zone since about noon. Luckily, the inch or so of compacted accumulation didn't melt away during the dry slot and it's snowing fairly decently again now.

It just sucks that 40 miles northwest of me, there is over 10" OTG already, but alas, such is life in the far southeast corner of Michigan. In both the Chicago and Detroit areas, it's crazy how much accumulation has varied on the north and west sides of town compared to the east.

 

Lake level typically reduces your annual snow totals by a notable amount.

 

I bet the Grampian Hills area of Oakland county probably average 60 inches, versus your 42 in the city.

 

http://www.peakbagger.com/peak.aspx?pid=6492

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