Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 4k NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 1895 is particularly impressive as I think the official observations were in/near downtown in those days.Corner of Wabash and Congress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Fabert updates his graphic, going with 2-3", that's a pretty bold call for him, given the circumstances. Let's see what happens. Poor alek didn't want anymore snow, now he staring down the barrel of a top 5 November snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 LOT... SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON UPCOMING HEAVY SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN ON VERY COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRST OFF...THE CHANGES TO FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS... 1) IT APPEARS THAT THE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE BROADLY FOCUSED...AND ALSO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 2) HAVE INCLUDED WILL COUNTY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. FOR THE DETAILS... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS REGION IS IN A FOCUS AREA OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER A NARROW SWATH. SATURATION AND COOLING FROM THE TOP DOWN HAS RESULTED IN A QUICK MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS IN IOWA WHERE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY JUMP FROM THE LOW TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS VERY DRY. THE MESOSCALE PROCESS GOING ON IN IOWA IS NOT WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR AREA-WIDE HEAVY SNOWFALL...BUT A PORTION OF THIS ELEVATED FGEN AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INITIALLY. THE STRENGTH OF THE FGEN ALONG THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT AND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS IT IS IN IOWA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET THAN VERY QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW IF NOT GOING RIGHT TO SNOW ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. THEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FROM SOUTH OF ST LOUIS BAY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN TO SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG Q-VECTOR FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VERY MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS/SREF CONTINUE TO PAINT A PICTURE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH WILL FOCUS FROM LEE/OGLE/NORTHERN LASALLE COUNTIES EASTWARD TO DEKALB/KANE/WESTERN DUPAGE COUNTIES. THE FGEN BANDING POTENTIAL COULD STRENGTHEN INTO THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WRAP INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH DOES THE WARM PAVEMENT LIMIT THE ACCUMS...AND WHERE THIS CUTOFF OCCURS...WHICH CREATES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS SHARP GRADIENT OCCURS IN COOK COUNTY. QPF NUMBERS ARE CONSISTENT AND HIGH...AND SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL EVEN INTO CHICAGO...BUT EXPECT ACCUM RATES WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OHARE EAST TO THE LAKE. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ^and you beat me to that by about 30 seconds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z RGEM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 LOT... SHORT TERM FOCUS IS ON UPCOMING HEAVY SNOW EVENT TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY...AND THEN ON VERY COLD CONDITIONS SATURDAY NIGHT. FIRST OFF...THE CHANGES TO FORECAST ARE AS FOLLOWS... 1) IT APPEARS THAT THE SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW LOOKS TO BE A BIT MORE BROADLY FOCUSED...AND ALSO SLIGHTLY FARTHER SOUTH THAN IN PREVIOUS FORECAST AND 2) HAVE INCLUDED WILL COUNTY IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING...MAINLY FOR NORTHERN PORTIONS. FOR THE DETAILS... A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW HAS SET UP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND IOWA THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF OUR INCOMING SYSTEM. THIS REGION IS IN A FOCUS AREA OF 850-700 MB FRONTOGENESIS THAT HAS ORGANIZED OVER A NARROW SWATH. SATURATION AND COOLING FROM THE TOP DOWN HAS RESULTED IN A QUICK MOISTENING OF THE LOWER LEVELS IN IOWA WHERE DEWPOINTS QUICKLY JUMP FROM THE LOW TEENS TO THE MID 20S. THIS PROCESS WILL OCCUR IN OUR AREA TONIGHT...BUT RIGHT NOW IT IS VERY DRY. THE MESOSCALE PROCESS GOING ON IN IOWA IS NOT WHAT IS EXPECTED TO BRING OUR AREA-WIDE HEAVY SNOWFALL...BUT A PORTION OF THIS ELEVATED FGEN AXIS WILL SLIDE INTO NORTHERN ILLINOIS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT AND LEAD TO A BAND OF SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER INITIALLY. THE STRENGTH OF THE FGEN ALONG THE 700 MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IS SOMEWHAT TRANSIENT AND DOES NOT LOOK TO BE AS STRONG AS IT IS IN IOWA. UPSTREAM OBSERVATIONS HAVE ALSO SHOWN A VERY SHORT PERIOD OF RAIN/SLEET THAN VERY QUICKLY CHANGING TO SNOW IF NOT GOING RIGHT TO SNOW ONCE THE ATMOSPHERE SATURATES. THEN TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING...THEN THE SURFACE LOW WILL PASS FROM SOUTH OF ST LOUIS BAY DAYBREAK SATURDAY...THEN TO SOUTH OF FORT WAYNE BY MIDDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW THE BAROCLINIC ZONE TO PIVOT OVER THE AREA. THIS COMBINED WITH VERY STRONG Q-VECTOR FORCING FROM THE UPPER WAVE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A PERIOD OF VERY MODERATE TO VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL OVERNIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GEFS/SREF CONTINUE TO PAINT A PICTURE OF A WEST-EAST ORIENTED SWATH OF HEAVY SNOW WHICH WILL FOCUS FROM LEE/OGLE/NORTHERN LASALLE COUNTIES EASTWARD TO DEKALB/KANE/WESTERN DUPAGE COUNTIES. THE FGEN BANDING POTENTIAL COULD STRENGTHEN INTO THE MORNING AS COLDER AIR STARTS TO WRAP INTO NORTHWEST ILLINOIS. THE BIGGEST QUESTION MARK THEN BECOMES HOW MUCH DOES THE WARM PAVEMENT LIMIT THE ACCUMS...AND WHERE THIS CUTOFF OCCURS...WHICH CREATES SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTY AS TO WHERE THIS SHARP GRADIENT OCCURS IN COOK COUNTY. QPF NUMBERS ARE CONSISTENT AND HIGH...AND SUPPORT HEAVY SNOWFALL EVEN INTO CHICAGO...BUT EXPECT ACCUM RATES WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FROM OHARE EAST TO THE LAKE. THINGS WILL WIND DOWN CONSIDERABLY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WEST TO EAST...THOUGH STILL SOME LIGHT SNOW ONGOING. Good write-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Fabert updates his graphic, going with 2-3", that's a pretty bold call for him, given the circumstances. Let's see what happens. Poor alek didn't want anymore snow, now he staring down the barrel of a top 5 November snowstorm ILX going with none for I-72.... a inch for bloomington and 1-3 north of that....yikes! most models have that entire area in a 2-6" band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Interestingly, this is panning out to be what the NAM was calling for about 3 days out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Natester Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Snow just started here about 5 minutes ago. With the exception of a few trees in my neighborhood, all of the trees are bare. Did not start as rain, just snow. Temp at 32F. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 18z RGEM... RGEM hammers Chicago metro with widespread 7-9", but it's also on the cooler end of the hi-res guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Interestingly, this is panning out to be what the NAM was calling for about 3 days out....O rly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Snow just started here about 5 minutes ago. With the exception of a few trees in my neighborhood, all of the trees are bare. Did not start as rain, just snow. Temp at 32F. Most trees around here are bare/nearly bare, but I actually have one that has almost a full amount of leaves. Not sure how it will fare. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Heavy virga here, with a nice fuzzy look to the sky and just below the cloud deck when looking at the horizon. Temp down to 38 here after a high of 41. Evap cooling working a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 O rly? Sorry, referring to the 12km NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 If snows pick up well overnight, I could see a WSW at 4 AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 Sorry, referring to the 12km NAM That's yesterday's run though, not 3 days ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 ILX going with none for I-72.... a inch for bloomington and 1-3 north of that....yikes! most models have that entire area in a 2-6" band I'm going to be happy if I just see some flakes here. Not expected anything to stick in Springfield. Good luck to everyone else. Also, first post. Hi everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The drive to ORD at 5am should be fun....thankfully there will not be anyone out. It has widespread 2-3" across Chicagoland by 11z except for the immediate lakefront and a few 4" spots in Lake/McHenry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 HRRR continues to trend colder, but still has some pesky pockets of rain. This time, it even migrates to the north side. Most of it is now snow throughout the whole event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The drive to ORD at 5am should be fun....thankfully there will not be anyone out. hrrr_ref_chicago_16.png Yikes that rain is close to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The drive to ORD at 5am should be fun....thankfully there will not be anyone out. It has widespread 2-3" across Chicagoland by 11z except for the immediate lakefront and a few 4" spots in Lake/McHenry hrrr_ref_chicago_16.png Beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RyanDe680 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 rooftops and grass white out by Galena... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 The drive to ORD at 5am should be fun....thankfully there will not be anyone out. It has widespread 2-3" across Chicagoland by 11z except for the immediate lakefront and a few 4" spots in Lake/McHenry hrrr_ref_chicago_16.png I don't buy the rain it is showing here, it is 44/14 here with the dew point ticking down a bit in the last hour. We are going to be closer to freezing than these NW models NAM/NAM4/HRRR are thinking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 DTX harps on the "mainly grassy areas" accumulation factor a bunch in their forecast, which may explain the high end advisory as opposed to a warning. That and the still relatively uncertain location of the pivot point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 DTX harps on the "mainly grassy areas" accumulation factor a bunch in their forecast, which may explain the high end advisory as opposed to a watch. That and the still relatively uncertain location of the pivot point. I think it is a bad move, low end warning criteria, first storm of the year, high impact/short duration. The other issue is the secondary band that forms and moves over Detroit that all models are honing in on, that won't affect GRR's CWA outside of a couple counties, so DTX should have gone warning while GRR went advisory even if it looked silly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 RFD reporting -SN at 37/20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 TSSN occurring SW of Fort Dodge, IA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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