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Snowfall predictions for 2015-2016


LongBeachSurfFreak

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Not looking so bad.

 

0" will never happen in the foreseeable future, but this winter looks like a contender for the least snowiest in NYC. I could certainly see DC ending up with 0" this season. There is little evidence that winter is going to come roaring in late January and February like it did last year. We are likely a month away from any cold snap.

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0" will never happen in the foreseeable future, but this winter looks like a contender for the least snowiest in NYC. I could certainly see DC ending up with 0" this season. There is little evidence that winter is going to come roaring in late January and February like it did last year. We are likely a month away from any cold snap.

 

Except 2/3 of the analogs and 3/4 of the dynamical models?  I'd say there is solid evidence that latter January and February will be decent.  I'm not sure anyone expected this warm of a December, but the warm signature was in the analogs since like August.  The warmth is not a surprise.

 

Are people forgetting that Boston had 5" of snow by the end of January last year?  What did they finish with? 105"? Crazy things can happen in an El Nino year.

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Except 2/3 of the analogs and 3/4 of the dynamical models?  I'd say there is solid evidence that latter January and February will be decent.  I'm not sure anyone expected this warm of a December, but the warm signature was in the analogs since like August.  The warmth is not a surprise.

 

Are people forgetting that Boston had 5" of snow by the end of January last year?  What did they finish with? 105"? Crazy things can happen in an El Nino year.

 

Hope so, but it's not rational to believe that this winter ends up colder and snowier than average. Could happen, but there's no reason to believe it will.

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Hope so, but it's not rational to believe that this winter ends up colder and snowier than average. Could happen, but there's no reason to believe it will.

The guidance doesn't say colder than N from J to M , but it suggests snowier.

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Yeah colder than normal would be surprising for anyone north of the mason dixon line for Jan-March.

 

I Agree , this look at 500 is not cold but if the ridge pulls back to west shores of HB  then having the trough in the means on the SE should mean it is wet enough and  may be just cold enough to sneak AN in terms of snowfall .

 

Here is the Euro seasonal  for everyone to see , it is rescaled  for Jan - March . 

post-7472-0-43864800-1450094299_thumb.pn

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The important thing to remember is that from NYC south above normal temps will hamper snowfall meaning thread the needle types as well as mixing events.

Not if we get a -NAO and -AO like a lot of people are forecasting. People are getting too worried because of this month.

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The important thing to remember is that from NYC south above normal temps will hamper snowfall meaning thread the needle types as well as mixing events.

 

 

That`s a 3 month mean . 2M forecast is not what you look at . That`s a 500 mb map .  Pos on the west shore of  HB ,NEG in the GOA , NEG in the SE is not a mix , those are not  interior type events  , its not rain in DC . It would snow .

 

"if" that 500 mb map is right . 

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