LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 What is everyone thinking. Let's use the park as our basis. Personally I'm thinking near normal 20-30". 15-25" falls after January 15th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 17" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 40-50 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 30-40" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnionWeatherWx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 My location : 35" Park: 28.5" EWR: 31.2" MMU: 40.3" PHL : 22" East LI (Riverhead): 55" . Another big LI winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I see a tale of feast or famine. If everything comes together perfectly then we could see a major snow event in an otherwise mild winter (think Feb 2006). On the other hand if things never line up then I could see a below 10" winter for the metro (much higher N&W, elevated regions). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 19, 2015 Author Share Posted November 19, 2015 I see a tale of feast or famine. If everything comes together perfectly then we could see a major snow event in an otherwise mild winter (think Feb 2006). On the other hand if things never line up then I could see a below 10" winter for the metro (much higher N&W, elevated regions). I have been gunning for a big inland winter. I think the poconos finally top our immediate area. There are going to be allot of juicy but marginal temp storms this winter so you want elevation elevation elevation!! I still think the city has an average winter though. But some place like mt pocono could have 100" winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 NYC: 20" ISP: 18" HPN: 35" MGJ: 55" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Knyc: 23" Hpn: 31" Kmgj bumblefart upstate: 64" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alwaysready126 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I would probably agree with the overall sentiments of this board but I have to go against the grain here; and not because I have snow goggles on. Given the location of the highest SSTA's in the Pacific and also my opinion that we should see predominantly a negative NAO (JFM), along with a charged up STJ... I think we easily exceed average snowfall for the entire winter between January 15th and the end of February. I think we should see easily over 50" this year. Don't forget, NINO should be on the descent for the majority of this winter, if not for the entire winter with a likely collapse from east to west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I would probably agree with the overall sentiments of this board but I have to go against the grain here; and not because I have snow goggles on. Given the location of the highest SSTA's in the Pacific and also my opinion that we should see predominantly a negative NAO (JFM), along with a charged up STJ... I think we easily exceed average snowfall for the entire winter between January 15th and the end of February. I think we should see easily over 50" this year. Don't forget, NINO should be on the descent for the majority of this winter, if not for the entire winter with a likely collapse from east to west. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 I'm guessing 21.5" with most of it coming after January 15th... last year set a record for the most snowfall after January 15th... season...Jan 15th...After...total1959-60......18.6"......20.6"......39.2"1960-61......19.6"......35.1"......54.7"1961-62........7.8"......10.3"......18.1"1962-63........4.5"......11.8"......16.3"1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7"1964-65......10.1"......14.3"......24.4"1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"1966-67........9.7"......41.8"......51.5"1967-68......12.3"........7.2"......19.5"1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6"1970-71......10.8"........4.7"......15.5"1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"1973-74......10.6"......12.9"......23.5"1974-75........1.5"......11.6"......13.1"1975-76........5.2"......12.1"......17.3"1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5"1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"1978-79........7.5"......21.9"......29.4"1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"1980-81........9.6"........9.8"......19.4"1981-82......11.8"......12.8"......24.6"1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"1983-84........7.5"......17.9"......25.4"1984-85........7.9"......16.2"......24.1"1985-86........0.9"......12.1"......13.0"1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1"1988-89........5.3"........2.8"........8.1"1989-90........7.1"........6.3"......13.4"1990-91......13.2"......11.7"......24.9"1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"1993-94......12.0"......41.4"......53.4"1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"1995-96......39.6"......36.0"......75.6"1996-97........4.5"........5.5"......10.0"1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"1998-99........6.5"........6.2"......12.7"1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"2000-01......15.2"......19.8"......35.0"2001-02........0.5"........3.0"........3.5"2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3"2003-04......26.0"......16.6"......42.6"2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"2005-06......11.7"......28.3"......40.0"2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"2007-08........2.9"........9.0"......11.9"2008-09........8.0"......19.6"......27.6" 2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4" 2010-11......30.9"......31.0"......61.9"2011-12........2.9"........4.5"........7.4" 2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1" 2013-14......15.0"......42.4"......57.4" 2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3" .............................................................................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 Knyc: 23" Hpn: 31" Kmgj bumblefart upstate: 64" Hater lol.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 19, 2015 Share Posted November 19, 2015 NYC 45 ISP 35 HPN 55 Sussex CO and Orange CO the big winners in our subforum. 65"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NYC : 48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morris Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 No snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Not much until around January 8. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 20, 2015 Author Share Posted November 20, 2015 No snow As in not even a trace or no measurable. I would put chances at no measurable at 1 in 200 and no trace 1 in 1000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 As in not even a trace or no measurable. I would put chances at no measurable at 1 in 200 and no trace 1 in 1000 I'd say it's 1 in 500 in a normal year (no trace), and like 1 in 150-200 in an El Niño year. Of course, with El Niño typically bringing above avg precip, that might cancel out the typically milder temps (because you'd have to figure at SOME point it'd still be cold enough to at least record a trace). Has DC even had a year in which they never recorded even a trace? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 40-50" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 NYC 32.5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 30-40" Vast majority after Jan 15.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Vast majority after Jan 15.. Ray, I hope you are right with your thoughts regarding this upcoming winter. Your thoughts are on the same page as Cosgrove's. Personally I think the strength of the current El Nino is going to be very difficult to overcome. This El Nino might be to old man winter what Holly Holm was to Rhonda Rousey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 Ray, I hope you are right with your thoughts regarding this upcoming winter. Your thoughts are on the same page as Cosgrove's. Personally I think the strength of the current El Nino is going to be very difficult to overcome. This El Nino might be to old man winter what Holly Holm was to Rhonda Rousey. All strength entails is a greater capacity to force in the favored region, which is bad early on, and good later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted November 20, 2015 Share Posted November 20, 2015 My snowfall forecast is under 20 inches for NYC metro and adjacent coastal CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 My snowfall forecast is under 20 inches for NYC metro and adjacent coastal CT Welcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I'd say it's 1 in 500 in a normal year (no trace), and like 1 in 150-200 in an El Niño year. Of course, with El Niño typically bringing above avg precip, that might cancel out the typically milder temps (because you'd have to figure at SOME point it'd still be cold enough to at least record a trace). Has DC even had a year in which they never recorded even a trace? I think NYC eventually will break the 72-73 record, it probably won't be a trace or 0 but I could see something around 1 inch or so. DCA in 97-98 I think had 0.5" and PHL may have been around that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 I think NYC eventually will break the 72-73 record, it probably won't be a trace or 0 but I could see something around 1 inch or so. DCA in 97-98 I think had 0.5" and PHL may have been around that too. hmm are you being facetious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FPizz Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 21.6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 21, 2015 Share Posted November 21, 2015 17.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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