Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,604
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ArlyDude
    Newest Member
    ArlyDude
    Joined

Snowfall predictions for 2015-2016


LongBeachSurfFreak

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 95
  • Created
  • Last Reply

I see a tale of feast or famine. If everything comes together perfectly then we could see a major snow event in an otherwise mild winter (think Feb 2006).

On the other hand if things never line up then I could see a below 10" winter for the metro (much higher N&W, elevated regions).

I have been gunning for a big inland winter. I think the poconos finally top our immediate area. There are going to be allot of juicy but marginal temp storms this winter so you want elevation elevation elevation!!

I still think the city has an average winter though. But some place like mt pocono could have 100" winter

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would probably agree with the overall sentiments of this board but I have to go against the grain here; and not because I have snow goggles on.  Given the location of the highest SSTA's in the Pacific and also my opinion that we should see predominantly a negative NAO (JFM), along with a charged up STJ... I think we easily exceed average snowfall for the entire winter between January 15th and the end of February.  I think we should see easily over 50" this year.

 

Don't forget, NINO should be on the descent for the majority of this winter, if not for the entire winter with a likely collapse from east to west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I would probably agree with the overall sentiments of this board but I have to go against the grain here; and not because I have snow goggles on. Given the location of the highest SSTA's in the Pacific and also my opinion that we should see predominantly a negative NAO (JFM), along with a charged up STJ... I think we easily exceed average snowfall for the entire winter between January 15th and the end of February. I think we should see easily over 50" this year.

Don't forget, NINO should be on the descent for the majority of this winter, if not for the entire winter with a likely collapse from east to west.

Agree
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'm guessing 21.5" with most of it coming after January 15th...

last year set a record for the most snowfall after January 15th...

season...Jan 15th...After...total
1959-60......18.6"......20.6"......39.2"
1960-61......19.6"......35.1"......54.7"
1961-62........7.8"......10.3"......18.1"
1962-63........4.5"......11.8"......16.3"
1963-64......24.0"......20.7"......44.7"
1964-65......10.1"......14.3"......24.4"
1965-66.........T.........21.4"......21.4"
1966-67........9.7"......41.8"......51.5"
1967-68......12.3"........7.2"......19.5"
1968-69........8.0"......22.2"......30.2"

1969-70......11.7"......13.9"......25.6"
1970-71......10.8"........4.7"......15.5"
1971-72........1.0"......21.9"......22.9"
1972-73.........T...........2.8"........2.8"
1973-74......10.6"......12.9"......23.5"
1974-75........1.5"......11.6"......13.1"
1975-76........5.2"......12.1"......17.3"
1976-77......15.5"........9.0"......24.5"
1977-78........5.6"......45.1"......50.7"
1978-79........7.5"......21.9"......29.4"

1979-80........5.5"........7.3"......12.8"
1980-81........9.6"........9.8"......19.4"
1981-82......11.8"......12.8"......24.6"
1982-83........4.0"......23.2"......27.2"
1983-84........7.5"......17.9"......25.4"
1984-85........7.9"......16.2"......24.1"
1985-86........0.9"......12.1"......13.0"
1986-87........1.1"......22.0"......23.1"
1987-88......14.9"........4.2"......19.1"
1988-89........5.3"........2.8"........8.1"

1989-90........7.1"........6.3"......13.4"
1990-91......13.2"......11.7"......24.9"
1991-92........0.7"......11.9"......12.6"
1992-93........1.9"......22.6"......24.5"
1993-94......12.0"......41.4"......53.4"
1994-95........0.2"......11.6"......11.8"
1995-96......39.6"......36.0"......75.6"
1996-97........4.5"........5.5"......10.0"
1997-98.........T...........5.5"........5.5"
1998-99........6.5"........6.2"......12.7"

1999-00.........T.........16.3"......16.3"
2000-01......15.2"......19.8"......35.0"
2001-02........0.5"........3.0"........3.5"
2002-03......12.6"......36.7"......49.3"
2003-04......26.0"......16.6"......42.6"
2004-05........3.0"......38.0"......41.0"
2005-06......11.7"......28.3"......40.0"
2006-07..........T........12.4"......12.4"
2007-08........2.9"........9.0"......11.9"
2008-09........8.0"......19.6"......27.6"

2009-10......13.2"......38.2"......51.4"

2010-11......30.9"......31.0"......61.9"
2011-12........2.9"........4.5"........7.4"

2012-13........5.1"......21.0"......26.1"

2013-14......15.0"......42.4"......57.4"

2014-15........3.2"......47.1"......50.3"

..............................................................................

Link to comment
Share on other sites

As in not even a trace or no measurable. I would put chances at no measurable at 1 in 200 and no trace 1 in 1000

 

I'd say it's 1 in 500 in a normal year (no trace), and like 1 in 150-200 in an El Niño year.  Of course, with El Niño typically bringing above avg precip, that might cancel out the typically milder temps (because you'd have to figure at SOME point it'd still be cold enough to at least record a trace).  Has DC even had a year in which they never recorded even a trace?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Vast majority after Jan 15..

Ray,

  I hope you are right with your thoughts regarding this upcoming winter. Your thoughts are on the same page as Cosgrove's. Personally I think the strength of the current El Nino is going to be very difficult to overcome. This El Nino might be to old man winter what Holly Holm was to Rhonda Rousey.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Ray,

  I hope you are right with your thoughts regarding this upcoming winter. Your thoughts are on the same page as Cosgrove's. Personally I think the strength of the current El Nino is going to be very difficult to overcome. This El Nino might be to old man winter what Holly Holm was to Rhonda Rousey.

All strength entails is a greater capacity to force in the favored region, which is bad early on, and good later.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say it's 1 in 500 in a normal year (no trace), and like 1 in 150-200 in an El Niño year.  Of course, with El Niño typically bringing above avg precip, that might cancel out the typically milder temps (because you'd have to figure at SOME point it'd still be cold enough to at least record a trace).  Has DC even had a year in which they never recorded even a trace?

 

I think NYC eventually will break the 72-73 record, it probably won't be a trace or 0 but I could see something around 1 inch or so.  DCA in 97-98 I think had 0.5" and PHL may have been around that too.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...