A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 When you look at precip type on the GEM, even though it's south, it shows a mix for much of the duration of the storm right along the lake (within 5-10 miles probably). This is for the Illinois shoreline at least. common signal and climatologically likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 pretty good idea of the range in play right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Part of me was expecting the morning runs to come north in light of last night's Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z ECMWF is slower, weaker and further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 I think the Euro is going to go south to some extent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z ECMWF is slower and weaker. sounds right based on the pattern and today's trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 12z ECMWF is slower and weaker. Yep little less QPF and little south at 72hr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Surface low begins to deepen better between 12z and 18z Sat once the wave goes neg tilt. Surface low down to 1006mb in eastern IL just west of the IN border at 18z Sat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Then 1001mb over Detroit at 0z. Goes right over Indy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 from DAB to 3", nice jump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Let the south trend commence! Lets all hope on the GFS verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just digging into some finer details, DGZ depth overall doesn't look particularly impressive...not one of those situations where we are dealing with something very thick. So I think I'd go with average ratios in the ballpark of 10:1 to 12:1, with a possible exception being near Lake Michigan where they may be lower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro gets northern IL down to the single digits late Sunday night into Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just digging into some finer details, DGZ depth overall doesn't look particularly impressive...not one of those situations where we are dealing with something very thick. So I think I'd go with average ratios in the ballpark of 10:1 to 12:1, with a possible exception being near Lake Michigan where they may be lower. I still think it doesn't look too bad and actually pretty solid on some fcst soundings. Here is the 12z GFS for DPA. A good 100-150mb deep in the prime -12 to -18 deg C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 I still think it doesn't look too bad and actually pretty solid on some fcst soundings. Here is the 12z GFS for DPA. A good 100-150mb deep in the prime -12 to -18 deg C gfs dgz.gif gfs dgz1.gif I guess I am spoiled by those 300-400 mb whoppers we've seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I will pass on the verbatim euro (1" imby, 5" ann arbor) however the trend is good. Gfs and gem look great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 If we go with the 10:1 to 12:1 idea and don't assume too much will be lost to melting, then we have unanimous model agreement on this being a warning criteria system, just a question of exactly where. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Early look at the plumes and I chose DKB for a spot away from the lake and UHI. Not bad at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowcaine Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Snowless for Toronto STILL... c'mon, further south! Doubtful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I will pass on the verbatim euro (1" imby, 5" ann arbor) however the trend is good. Gfs and gem look great. North of 59 special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 North of 59 special.Hope you are wrong but being November that would be a good bet. Let's see the next day of trends. Today's trends are good, yesterday's were not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Will be time to start digging into the November snowstorm records over the next couple days as the position of the snow band gets refined. I posted the one for Chicago yesterday. I checked Rockford and theirs is 9.5" on November 6-7, 1951. Whether this ends up being a record breaker for some areas remains to be seen but we appear to be heading toward something pretty unusual at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Will be time to start digging into the November snowstorm records over the next couple days as the position of the snow band gets refined. I posted the one for Chicago yesterday. I checked Rockford and theirs is 9.5" on November 6-7, 1951. Whether this ends up being a record breaker for some areas remains to be seen but we appear to be heading toward something pretty unusual at least. Already started looking into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxman1952 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 euro snowfall.png STOP your killing me with this wonderful picture. Now I'm going to get my hopes up. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I would lock in any of the 12z major model solutions except the GEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Geos Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Hazard outlook has the heavy snow wording up now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Majority of the 15z plumes with .3 QPF for the mean in NE IL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gilbertfly Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 QPF shield looking mighty fat on the 18Z NAM compared to the 12Z through Iowa through H57 EDIT... and wetter...continues through H60 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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