mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 It was a big jump in terms of deepening of the surface low and better look aloft with both those leading to the north shift and higher QPF. It's certainly an interesting solution. Once I get home I'd like to take a look at how the 500mb evolution differs on the GEM compared to the weaker systems. Either way, I like your location best for this event. I think someone out by you should aee warning-criteria snows even with the melting and marginal BL temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Not really. Not compared to the Euro, but it was compared to its 12z run. There was barely anything around here, though part of that reason was the overall uninspiring totals for the 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Quite the big difference aloft. The GEM is much sharper with the trof and hangs some of the nrn energy back to the west with more ridging out ahead of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Quite the big difference aloft. The GEM is much sharper with the trof and hangs some of the nrn energy back to the west with more ridging out ahead of it output_HVT9J2.gif Thanks for posting this! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Chicago area people, root for 4" out of this. 15 out of 23 Novembers with 4"+ went on to produce above average snow for the season. Odds are even better with 6" Novembers...out of 12 such occurrences, 11 went on to be snowier than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 I disagree. Sure, the overall totals have grown significantly. But this was objectively a shift north from the 12z, with an axis of heaviest accumulations most similar to the GFS. I'm on a mobile device so I can't post the image, but the 12z GEM accumulations map is 2 pages back. The GFS shifted south though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 The GFS shifted south though.True, at least we're coming to a consensus. The Euro tonight will be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Chicago area people, root for 4" out of this. 15 out of 23 Novembers with 4"+ went on to produce above average snow for the season. Odds are even better with 6" Novembers...out of 12 such occurrences, 11 went on to be snowier than average.Interesting. We'll see what happens. Im currently predicting 4-5" of snow by my area (very, very preliminary and probably wrong prediction) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Interesting. We'll see what happens. Im currently predicting 4-5" of snow by my area (very, very preliminary and probably wrong prediction) Not a bad guess at this early juncture. 3-6" is a good starting point for the main band I think, though anything like the GGEM would obviously produce more, even if you take a pessimistic approach about BL temps/melting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Not a bad guess at this early juncture. 3-6" is a good starting point for the main band I think, though anything like the GGEM would obviously produce more, even if you take a pessimistic approach about BL temps/melting.Agreed. I wonder how much the lake will affect temps/how far inland it will affect temps... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Especially since I am about 6 miles away from the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Agreed. I wonder how much the lake will affect temps/how far inland it will affect temps... I don't think it will go that far inland...I tend to believe the layout of some of these maps being posted where you see diminishing effect even just heading out to ORD. Of course it will also depend on track...if it goes farther south, then thermal fields at the sfc/aloft would be colder and there might hardly be any effect. If it's north, more problems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro is north and stronger with the sfc low at 66hr but a touch less QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 This could be a big Euro run but possibly north of the GEM swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Looks like a further north version of the GGEM incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IllinoisWedges Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 EURO "bombs" it out over MI. Any hourly info? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Euro really deepens it by 96 hours. Comparing to 00z run from last night, big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 This could be a big Euro run but possibly north of the GEM swath Looks like well over an inch of QPF over southern WI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 999mb about over Michigan City 13" max across srn WI and 2-5" along I-88 with hardly any in the city proper Major differences between the GFS and Euro now to say the least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Actually a 14-15" max northwest of Milwaukee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Widespread 1"+ QPF as snow from SW WI and extreme northern IL ENE into much of central and northern lower MI. Max of about 1.5" QPF north of MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Big difference in how quickly the trough goes negative on this run of the ECMWF compared to the 00z run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Man, talk about a potent little system. Thing is a little powerhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Actually a 14-15" max northwest of MilwaukeeHow does extreme NE Illinois shoreline look? Such as around the Northbrook/Palatine/Buffalo Grove Area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
homedis Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Man, talk about a potent little system. Thing is a little powerhouse.Yeah for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Beautiful tilt to the negatively tilted wave this run. I don't think stronger will for sure mean north overall with this...just get the wave to dig a little more after crossing the Rockies into the plains like the super bowl storm wave did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 http://i.imgur.com/eiQVefol.jpg For you all. Id assume a slight south trend could occur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 2 models go south one goes north, certainly winter that is for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brewers Posted November 18, 2015 Share Posted November 18, 2015 Nice pressure gradient on the backside of the low as well, 30-40 mph gusts possible within the CAA, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 18, 2015 Author Share Posted November 18, 2015 Just looking quickly but in my estimation, the 00z run is a good 100 miles north with the snow axis compared to 12z. Hopefully we are about at the northern limit of this thing haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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