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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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It was a big jump in terms of deepening of the surface low and better look aloft with both those leading to the north shift and higher QPF.

It's certainly an interesting solution. Once I get home I'd like to take a look at how the 500mb evolution differs on the GEM compared to the weaker systems.

Either way, I like your location best for this event. I think someone out by you should aee warning-criteria snows even with the melting and marginal BL temps.

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I disagree. Sure, the overall totals have grown significantly. But this was objectively a shift north from the 12z, with an axis of heaviest accumulations most similar to the GFS.

I'm on a mobile device so I can't post the image, but the 12z GEM accumulations map is 2 pages back.

The GFS shifted south though.

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Chicago area people, root for 4" out of this. 15 out of 23 Novembers with 4"+ went on to produce above average snow for the season. Odds are even better with 6" Novembers...out of 12 such occurrences, 11 went on to be snowier than average.

Interesting. We'll see what happens. Im currently predicting 4-5" of snow by my area (very, very preliminary and probably wrong prediction)
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Interesting. We'll see what happens. Im currently predicting 4-5" of snow by my area (very, very preliminary and probably wrong prediction)

 

 

Not a bad guess at this early juncture.  3-6" is a good starting point for the main band I think, though anything like the GGEM would obviously produce more, even if you take a pessimistic approach about BL temps/melting. 

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Not a bad guess at this early juncture. 3-6" is a good starting point for the main band I think, though anything like the GGEM would obviously produce more, even if you take a pessimistic approach about BL temps/melting.

Agreed. I wonder how much the lake will affect temps/how far inland it will affect temps...
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Agreed. I wonder how much the lake will affect temps/how far inland it will affect temps...

 

 

I don't think it will go that far inland...I tend to believe the layout of some of these maps being posted where you see diminishing effect even just heading out to ORD.  Of course it will also depend on track...if it goes farther south, then thermal fields at the sfc/aloft would be colder and there might hardly be any effect.  If it's north, more problems.

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