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November 20-21 Early Season Snowstorm


Hoosier

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And then it goes and screws everyone else over. Of course this is still a few days out, so expect changes.

 

 

Not steady at all, pretty good shift south, of course you do well in most scenarios, so that's why it appears steady.

 

Your right it did shift. My eyes are not that sensitive to the shift because I've been in the middle of it so long.

 

Big difference from the last 0z run when the band was much wider.

 

gfs_asnow_ncus_22.png

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In terms of intensity, yes. In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS. At least we're approaching some consensus on the axis of snowfall.

 

Still, the GFS doesn't have this level of snow a'la ECMWF, and the Euro did have the highest level of snows over North. Illinois. 

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In terms of intensity, yes. In terms of positioning of the heaviest accumulations, this was a big shift towards the GFS. At least we're approaching some consensus on the axis of snowfall.

 

It was a big jump in terms of deepening of the surface low and better look aloft with both those leading to the north shift and higher QPF. 

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Still, the GFS doesn't have this level of snow a'la ECMWF, and the Euro did have the highest level of snows over North. Illinois. 

 

True, look at some of the ensembles for the GFS, especially for 18z.  Some are GEM like, some are further north as well.  Quite interesting from that standpoint, even one that I noticed gets the low down below 1000mb.

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Disagreements all around:

 

e8KCOlM.jpg

 

This^ is the 12Z ECMWF run, as you can see, the 12Z Euro had the band of snow in Central Lower Michigan in almost the exact same spot as the 0Z GEM, same for the Chicago area.

 

Differences:

  1. Cutoff is way farther south on the ECMWF
  2. GEM is more amped in Iowa, although some of the Euro and GFS Ensembles agreed with this. 

And before someone mentions it: We only get effected by one storm for this subforum, so the "Run Total" function is fine. 

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The 00z GGEM is a lot more bullish with snow overall, and especially for areas farther west than the 12z ECMWF was, so I'd argue it hasn't really joined the ECMWF, more like it joined the loony bin. 

 

This yes.

 

But it joined the Euro camp of really deepening the sfc low. The 12z GEM didn't have that while the Euro does 

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